Week 14 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Titans @ Dolphins & Packers @ Giants.
We have a double-header action to end Week 14! Two games will go off simultaneously this Monday Night at 8:15 pm ET giving you, the viewer (and bettor), two chances at getting to see a great game unfold (and win some bets).
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the Titans and Giants are two of the four teams involved in these games and they are not playing each other. New York comes in on a two-game win streak but those wins came against New England and Washington, and they managed just 10 points against the Patriots.
They’ll again be led by third-stringer Tommy DeVito who admittedly looked the part of an NFL QB the last two weeks. DeVito has completed 68.6% of his passes for 8.56 yards per attempt over his last two starts and has brought the Giants offense a modicum of respectability they didn’t have prior to their two game winning streak.
The other game will see another rookie in Will Levis start at QB for the Titans, who have had major issues protecting Levis since he took over. Tennessee is 28th in sacks allowed and will face a Miami defense that is emerging as a top unit of late and also ranks fourth in pressure rate and 3rd in sacks.
While the Giants vs. Packers game does have a -6.5 spread it certainly feels like the it at least has the potential to be a close game – while the Dolphins vs. Titans feels like it will be anything but. So what’s the best way to approach this double-header and is there any prop value we can exploit? The answers (and more!) are below.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -14.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 46.0
- Moneylines: Titans +600 / Dolphins -909
Best Bet: Dolphins -13.5 (-105; DraftKings)
- Bet to: -13.5 (-120)
The Dolphins have been the most obvious bet in the world the last two weeks and it still hasn’t mattered. They handled a legitimately tricky Jets defense on Black Friday, covering a -9.5 spread with relative ease and then covered the two TDs against the Commanders with even more ease posting a 30-point win against a failing Commanders defense.
This week, they take on a Titans team whose secondary is 25th in completion percentage against and who allows 7.1 yards per attempt (26th in the league). Tua Tagovailoa may not have an incompletion in this game given how wide open Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle figure to be against this bottom tier secondary. Tagovailoa has also been great in this spot for betting going 16-6 ATS at home for his career and 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 4.0 points or more (per The Action Network).
Nov 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches a pass for a first down as New York Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (4) defends during the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The strength of the Titans defense (ability to stop the run) also may not matter in this spot much. Miami is second in EPA per rush and fourth in rush success rate (per RBSDM.com). They’ve got rookie De’Von Achane fully healthy (see below) and can create big plays at the end of the game at a drop of hate to help cover this big of a number. Ultimately, any argument against a Dolphins cover just seems somewhat flimsy, given how weak Tennessee is on O-Line and defense, making Miami the side to back.
Ladder Bet: De’Von Achane rushing yards 80+ (+220) | 90+ (+340) | 100+ (+500; DraftKings)
- Bet to: +200 | +320 | +470
I’m surprised that you can still get Achane’s regular rushing prop under 60 yards in this spot. The rookie is coming off a game where he took 50% of the carries and played on 59% of the snaps.
While you could argue that some of that was circumstance, with the Dolphins up big late, the exact same scenario is likely to exist this week against the Titans who are +13.5 underdogs.
Achane has excelled whenever he’s been able to stay on the field this year, as well. In the four games where he’s taken eight or more carries he’s gone for over 100 yards rushing on three occasions. The Titans don’t grade out as the greatest matchup on paper but they can certainly be worn down. They’re 12th in EPA against the rush but allowed 8.0 yards per carry to Jaylen Warren earlier in Week 9, and 165 yards rushing to Zach Moss in Week 6 – two games they trailed nearly the entire way.
Miami has ultimately proven they can run on anyone (second in EPA per rush on offense) and laddering up Achane gives us access to the immense upside of this offense.
Same Game Parlay: (+950, DraftKings)
- Dolphins alternate spread -16.5
- Dolphins alternate team total over 33.5
- De’Von Achane 90+ rushing yards
- De’Von Achane anytime TD
Miami has averaged 39.5 points scored their last two games. In the four games where they have had Achane healthy (and he’s taken more than 8 carries) they have averaged 41.5 points scored. It’s not outlandish to think this team may hit the high 30’s in points again this week, especially with the weakness of the Tennessee secondary.
Tennessee have held their own well against weaker opponents but their two losses of 20+ points this year came against teams with winning records and positive point differentials in Jacksonville and Cleveland. They have yet to face an offense like Miami's.
Adding in the Achane alternate yards and anytime TD gets correlates very well with our Miami blowout win vibes and also gets us a respectable +950 same-game parlay to chase for Week 14’s Monday Night matchup.
You can tail the best bets for the Dolphins-Titans game at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for your new account below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
- Spread: Packers -6.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 37.0
- Moneylines: Giants +240 / Packers -303
Best Bet: Packers teaser -6.5 to -0.5 (DraftKings)
- Bet to: 39.5 (-110)
I’m inclined to like the Packers to win this game. Matt LaFleur is 16-0 as a head coach in December (or Fleurmember as it might be known if he keeps winning) and the Giants, for all the grittiness they’ve shown of late, are facing an offense that has averaged 26.33 points in their last three games (a number produced against three respectable teams).
If I was leaning a side in this one I would lean Packers but I think the better angle is to look at the Packers as a prime teaser leg. They’re in the traditional Wong teaser zone in that moving them down 6.0 points (6.0 point teaser) takes us through two small key numbers in 6.0 and 4.0 and the biggest key number of all in 3.0. Additionally, with Football being played on Saturday next week we have earlier options to use alongside them.
Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
The Steelers (+2.5 DraftKings) would be my preferred target, as they’re playing the Jekyll and Hyde Colts in a must win spot, and they sit in the perfect tease up range at +2.5 – +8.5 (Through 3,4,6,7). But the Bengals (+1) and Broncos (+4.5) could also be considered.
Either way, the Packers sit at a great spot to be used in a cross-week teaser that starts Monday Night. Despite the feel-good story with DeVito, the Giants are ultimately a bottom-dweller who have yet to beat a team with a positive point differential (the Packers are +15) all season.
Player Props: Dontayvion Wicks over 2.5 receptions / over 31.5 receiving yards (same-game parlay) (+116, FanDuel)
Wicks is in a great spot this Monday Night with Christian Watson (hamstring) officially ruled out. The 22-year-old has had a legitimate role in this passing attack all season, managing to carve out targets (four or more targets in five straight games) despite seeing under 50% of the snaps most weeks.
Wicks is also a bigger bodied receiver who has been able to convert 76% of his catches over the last four games making this 2.5 reception total look exceedingly low. You could certainly just play the over on the receptions (as long as the price stays in the -120 to -130 range) but given that Wicks has a solid 11.36 aDOT – and has gone for over 40 yards in four straight games – I like combining the two props and playing both overs together at bigger odds (especially with Watson out).
Green Bay has been more aggressive of late in the passing game and Wicks has been a favorite of the coaching staff, and a player primed for way more opportunities in Week 14.
Same Game Parlay: (+1000, DraftKings)
- Saquon Barkley anytime TD
- AJ Dillon anytime TD
- Tommy DeVito under passing TDs
Giants games all seem to go the same. Either they are played at an excruciatingly slow pace with little scoring, or it’s just the Giants getting blown out. I think the former will occur this Monday. New York is in position to run the ball against Green Bay who is 23rd in EPA per rush on defense. The Packers have also allowed 10 rushing TDs to opposing RBs (9th most) and Barkley is essentially the only back on New York that sees the field in the red zone.
Dillon is an equally good spot against a Giants defense that is 24th in success rate against the run and have allowed 12 rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Adding in the DeVito under on 0.5 passing TDs also gives us some sneaky and solid correlation as the Giants only have a 15.25 implied team total – so a Barkley TD could easily be their only of the day.
Either way, Green Bay is a tough pass defense who I expect DeVito to struggle against. Adding his under gives us solid +1000 odds and an interesting longshot ticket to chase (along with our Dolphins blowout SGP) for Monday Night.
