In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
Monday Night Blitz: Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend—but there’s no rest for the weary with an exciting NFL doubleheader on deck tonight. Every game day I open up my notebook for lightning-round takes on what to watch for. Enjoy!
BAL (4-2), at TB (4-2): Offensive production came crashing down to Earth, eerily reminiscent of the same Week 1 outcome that had over bettors reconsidering life choices. Well, here comes the cavalry (1812 Overture blares in the background), as two of the league’s top-5 scoring offenses square off in Central Florida. Tonight’s tilt comes down to defense—and who makes the last (or only) stop.
The 2024 Ravens perfectly exemplify the modern pass funnel. For starters, the BAL offense pushes the opposition weekly, leading the league in EPA/play (+0.15), yards/play (6.9), and net-yard differential (+119). Then, on the flip side, the defense smooshes opposing RBs, holding them to a measly 3.0 yards/rush. In fact, not a single RB managed to reach 50 yards on the ground yet this season. Therefore, teams get forced to attack through the air, except this isn’t the vaunted Baltimore D of yesteryear—John Harbaugh’s pass defense ranks 30th or worse in sack rate (3.4%), passing yards/game (275.7), and 20-yard completions (28). You know Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield will be in their bag for explosive pass plays.
As far as the Ravens’ offense goes, can anyone stop history’s most dynamic backfield? My gut says no, especially considering how Tampa’s elevated blitz rate forces QBs to scramble—something Lamar Jackson will almost assuredly be more than happy to oblige.
LAC (3-2) at ARI (2-4): While tonight’s tilt between the Chargers and Cardinals certainly feels like the undercard, don’t sell its importance short. Ever-increasing parity levels create a four-month-long melee for precious Wild Card spots—and that fight’s already begun.
Admittedly high on Arizona coming into 2024, I don’t want my hopes confused with bias. It’s not as bad as the (2-4) record might suppose. Look at the quality of the teams they’ve lost to so far: Buffalo, Detroit, Washington, and Green Bay. What do you notice? They’re all 5-win teams heading for the postseason.
Yes, the Redbirds need to clean things up on defense, but it’s more a matter of consistency than anything. In the three games Jon Gannon’s D actually performed well, ARI held the Lions, Rams, and 49ers to 53 points combined (you’d take 17.5 PPG any day against those offenses).
Anyway, it's a matter of tackling for the Cards—their 31st-ranked tackle rate (44.3%) has led to an inordinate amount of YAC.
Well, if the ‘Zona defense is the stoppable force, then Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers represent the movable object. The Bolts’ offense sits dead last in explosive plays (26) and total yards after contact (468).
This could go any which way as opposing styles clash in an attempt to set their own pace.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Pattycake, Pattycake, Baker’s Man
I started laying out the case for explosives tonight in my game notes above but wanted to highlight something else. We know the Ravens rank dead last in pass yards allowed (image below), inviting aerial attacks out of pure fear and then struggling to defend them. In fact, five of six opposing QBs passed for +269 yards this season. Yikes.
All roads lead to Baker Mayfield slinging it tonight. Negative game scripts force the Ravens’ opposition to throw, where Zach Orr’s waiting to deploy his preventive six-DB, two-high coverage. Baltimore’s fine running deep shells and foregoing completions underneath for splash plays—with confidence in one-on-one tackling abilities when they fail. High risk, high reward.
I mentioned the BAL run funnel but wanted to shine a quick light on Todd Bowles’ willingness to lean really hard into certain schematics. What I mean to say is when the run hasn’t worked, TB has no problem completely ripping those plays from the clipboard. Mayfield’s dropped back to pass over 40 times in three of their last four games (image below) with no signs of slowing.
As more than a field goal underdog at home, expect Mayfield and Co. to challenge the Ravens’ armor at its weakest point early and often.
Confirmation Bias Check: I’m precisely in line with our own projections wiz Dwain McFarland at a mean outcome of 261. Matthew Freedman, however, is not as optimistic.
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Freedman and LaMarca look back at the Sunday slate and then ahead to the early lines for NFL Week 8 in the Betting Life Show.
📺 Claudia and Thor talk Georgia-Texas and other big games last week then dive into Week 9 in College Football.
🏈 Derrick Henry’s receiving-yards prop tonight is what? Check out our Player Props.
🔮 Wait, what week are we in? Check out the early betting lines for NFL Week 8.
🤯 Several popular bets cashed Sunday. Who’s popular tonight?
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Unpredictability is the Name of the Game
When the name of the game is unpredictability, I’m looking for plays a bit more on the nose— liking Arizona doesn’t mean I have a clue how they’ll perform. What can we rely on? Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman attempting to set the league back to a pace that leather helmets would be proud of. As other coaches and coordinators galaxy-brain thousand-page playbooks, the Chargers first and foremost must establish the run. The Bolts run the ball on first down at any cost (image below), even if you know it’s coming and it doesn’t work (3.6 yards/rush, 31% success).
Kidding aside, yes, it would have been nice to see the Chargers pivot upon losing multiple starting linemen in Week 3 but that’s spilled milk. The fact remains both Zion Johnson and Trey Pipkins are back, and the splits are ridiculous. Check out J.K. Dobbins’ efficiency metrics in Weeks 1, 2, and 6 compared to 3 through 5.
No O-line versus Good O-line
- Yards/Rush: 2.6 versus 7.0
- Yards Over Expectation/Rush: -1.93 versus 3.17
- Yards Before Contact/Rush: 1.03 versus 3.42
- Yards After Contact/Rush: 1.69 versus 3.54
- Rush Yards/Game: 38.0 versus 120.7
- EPA/Rush: -0.40 versus +0.21
- Rush Success Rate: 13.9% versus 54.0%
- Explosive Rush Rate: 6.9% versus 17.3%
Not to mention Arizona gave up +83 rush yards to four different RBs in just the past four weeks, on the back of a bottom-5 defensive success rate against the run (image below). Expect Harbaugh to use Dobbins as the hammer to impose his will on the game throughout, relying on his defense to win the field-position game and grind it out from there.
Confirmation Bias Check: Second verse, same as the first. Dwain and I remain in lockstep, projecting a rush total north of 90 while the Fantasy Life’s resident Oracle plays the wet blanket yet again.
THE BET: J.K. Dobbins Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112) FD
CHECK OUT THE GAME MODELS FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT GAMES
Sharps Are On Road Favorite, Are You?
Source: Sharp Hunter
Another Monday Night Football doubleheader caps off Week 7 in the NFL.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking sharp bets every day of the week. In the first of two on Monday night, the Ravens find themselves as 3.5-point favorites on the road in Tampa to face the Buccaneers.
Our sharps like the road favorite and we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on Baltimore.
If I bet this game, I’m going to be against the sharps. I want to bet the Bucs at this number.
Yes, the Ravens are very good. But their defense has given up plenty of big passing plays this season—DVOA rankings have them 18th in the NFL vs. the pass. The Bucs want to sling it and can have success here.
On the other side, the Bucs defense has been surprisingly good this season—it is 11th in DVOA and has faced some of the better offenses in the league.
Yes, there are scenarios where the Ravens come on and blow out the Bucs, I get it. Lamar Jackson is a real MVP candidate. But this game sets up for Baker Mayfield to have success and the Bucs won’t be committed to establishing the run. In that scenario, the Bucs can hang around in prime time.
And getting 3.5 points here at home seems like the right side to me—especially with an offense that can score.
The sharps are on the road favorite—we had NINE road favorite winners in Week 6. I want the home ’dog in the first of two on Monday night.
