In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Monday Night Football Week 2: It wasn’t a great Week 1 for the Atlanta Falcons offense. On top of losing at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kirk Cousins looked like the 2020 version of Matt Ryan (0-5 start to the season), throwing 2 INTs and averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt.
Still, this was the first week for Cousins on a new team and under a new OC, who was calling plays for the first time in his career. They were also playing the Steelers, who have a notoriously tough secondary and pass rush, and typically outperform in those kind of spots—as underdogs against non-elite teams on the road.
While Atlanta has a ways to go if it is going to win the division, or just be a competent team, it wouldn’t be shocking to see some offensive improvement in Week 2 against an Eagles secondary that ranked 19th in EPA per dropback in Week 1.
I’m not confident enough to bet against Jalen Hurts at home, but the matchup should be far more favorable for some of the Falcons pass catchers. With the help of our our FantasyLife+ tools, I’ve identified my favorite buy-low spot on this Atlanta offense, which I broke down below.
NFL Week 3 is here. Compare the best prices across all major sportsbooks using our free NFL betting odds table!
Upside Surprise 📈—Kyle Pitts vs. the Eagles
by Geoff Ulrich
Let’s get right to the point. Kirk Cousins may be cooked. At the very least, his mobility looks as poor as its ever been and he’s probably lost a little on his fastball. If Cousins is limited, or can’t throw to the sticks anymore, then the key to this matchup for Atlanta (and most weeks) will be getting that athletic freak of a TE Kyle Pitts more involved.
The Utilization Report numbers on Pitts for Week 1 look lukewarm, but when we take a little closer look, the outlook for everyone’s favorite receiving TE becomes a little more bullish.
Pitts may have only seen three targets, but all of them were catchable. That is big in and of itself as Cousins delivered far fewer catchable throws to his WRs—with Darnell Mooney and Drake London having a combined 50% catchable target rate in Week 1.
Further, while Pitts’ Utilization Score of 6.9 (nice) doesn’t jump off the page, it is the best mark on the team and a full point ahead of Ray-Ray McCloud, who had the best UR Score of the three Atlanta WRs in Week 1 at 58.0.
The bottom line with Atlanta’s passing game going forward is that if Cousins is going to have trouble throwing the ball effectively to his WRs, he’s going to have to start looking at Pitts more, either by design or by necessity. Pitts is a BIG target at 6-foot-6, and with 4.44 speed his after-the-catch ability is pretty much unmatched at his position.
The Matchup is 📈
The Packers didn’t throw to their TEs much in Week 1, but Tucker Kraft, who may not even be their most athletic TE, did manage to post 18.5 yards per catch (2-37). Additionally, the Eagles struggled to contain another athletic freak in Jayden Reed (4-138-1), who also took most of his snaps from the slot.
Pitts doesn’t have Reed’s speed, but he’s a complete mismatch for linebackers and can shrug off undersized corners. It’s also worth pointing out that Vic Fangio’s defense in Miami last year allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs in 2023.
Right now, Pitts’ receiving prop is set at 38.5 and with his projection on FL+ above 50 yards, this is one over on the Atlanta offense I’m happy to take. If you want to get more frisky, combining Pitts’ alternate line prop of 50+ yards with over 224.5 passing yards for Cousins can get you +280. Throwing in an anytime TD for Pitts gets the three-way SGP up to +600 (on bet365).
MNF bet: Kyle Pitts over 38.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
FantasyLife+ has betting tools?
Yeah, it does.
FantasyLife+ Tier 2 houses the full suite of Fantasy Life’s betting tools, including projections, game models, player props, parlay calculators, and a whole lot more across multiple sports like NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and more!
Be on the lookout for more betting product throughout the NFL season!
Dominate your fantasy football season and win your bets with FantasyLife+.
Get Tier 2 for under $9 per month.
Use code FAMILY for 10% off.
MNF Sharps Are Flying High: Falcons at Eagles
Presented by Sharp Hunter
By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
Monday Night Football allows us to see the Eagles in primetime for a second straight week.
Let's hope the footing will be better in this one after Philadelphia beat Green Bay on that slippery field in Brazil last Friday.
As of Sunday afternoon, the Eagles were sitting as 5.5-point home favorites over the Falcons with a total of 46.5
We're seeing a lot of bets at Sharp Hunter on the Eagles side at -6.
A couple of reasons to think that's the right side of the game:
The Falcons came out of Week 1 with the 24th-ranked DVOA offense. Many smarter people than me pointed out that Kirk Cousins did not look 100% healthy as he recovers from a major Achilles injury. Now he has to go on the road and face a loaded Philadelphia defensive line.
Then there are the Kirk Cousins Monday Night Football Trends. The veteran QB is 3-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football. His teams have scored 20-plus points in only four of those games. Overall, he's 16-25 in primetime games. Yikes. And, oh yeah, the Achilles thing.
There's too much going against Atlanta for me to play the dog. I cannot bet into those Cousins trends. If anything, I'd be with the sharps and lay the 6 with Philadelphia.
My guess is this game will be a HUGE final piece of thousands of 6-point teaser plays to end Week 2. Good luck to all the sportsbooks … I think they'll need Atlanta BIG.
Matt LaMarca highlights Early Betting Lines for Week 3.
The Commanders didn’t score a TD but still beat the Giants. If you laddered FG props for Austin Seibert, you’re now richer than Bill Gates.
What the actual F*&! is happening in New Orleans? Derek Carr is now (literally) unstoppable
The Panthers are breaking a ton of trends right now, and none of them are good. They didn’t even come close to covering against the Chargers.
Need More Bets for Monday Football? We have them. Check out our FREE NFL Bet Tracker before kickoff.
