After back-to-back Monday Night Football doubleheaders, we’re back to the traditional standalone contest in Week 5. But fear not! We have a good one lined up, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the New Orleans Saints.

The Chiefs are off to another strong start, posting a 4-0 record through their first four outings. However, it hasn’t all been peaches and cream. They’ve suffered some big offensive injuries to start the year, losing Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, and Hollywood Brown. After it looked like the Chiefs’ offense would return to its former glory, there are once again questions surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ supporting cast.

On the other side, the Saints started the year with two blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. Unfortunately, they’ve come crashing back to reality over the past two weeks. They’ve played two competitive contests vs. the Eagles and Falcons, but they’ve ultimately come out on the short side of both.

Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)—43.0 total

The Chiefs have emerged as a dynasty with Mahomes at quarterback, winning three of the past five Super Bowls while making it to six straight conference championships. That said, the team has undergone a bit of a transformation in recent years. They went from a team that was forced to outscore their opponents to overcome their poor defense to a much more balanced squad.

Last year’s Chiefs ranked just 15th in points per game and ninth in yardage during the regular season. They were able to turn things on in the postseason, but Mahomes simply didn’t have to do too much during the regular season.

This year’s squad looks pretty similar. It is 15th in yards and points per game through the first four weeks, and has played in four close games. All four of the Chiefs’ wins have come by one score, with their average margin of victory checking in at 5.0 points.

This aligns with what we’ve seen from the Chiefs for years; they’re great at winning games, just not at covering spreads. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Mahomes is just 21-31-2 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. That includes an 0-1-1 mark so far this season.

I’m expecting more of the same vs. the Saints, who have the personnel defensively to limit the Chiefs’ offense. They’re fifth in EPA per play defensively to start the year, while their offense grades out as an above-average unit.

Ultimately, this feels like a good spot to buy low on the Saints. They’re coming off back-to-back losses, but they very easily could’ve won both contests. They outgained the Falcons by more than 50 yards last week, while they blew a 5-point lead with less than two minutes to go vs. the Eagles. I don’t think they’ll win the game outright, but don’t be surprised if this is another game where Mahomes is forced to steal one late in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: Chiefs +5.5 (-110; BetMGM)

Player Props for Monday Night Football

Foster Moreau Under 1.5 receptions (-135; BetMGM)

The Saints employ a committee at tight end, and with Taysom Hill out of the lineup, it should open up a few additional snaps for the rest of their options. However, Foster Moreau has fallen significantly behind Juwan Johnson in the pecking order. Per the Utilization Report, Moreau had just an 18% route participation in Week 4, and he’s failed to earn a target in three straight weeks.

Kareem Hunt Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110; BetMGM)

It didn’t take long for Kareem Hunt to establish himself as the top back in Kansas City. That may not continue forever—Clyde Edwards-Helaire will return soon, and Pacheco should be back eventually—but his competition for touches is minimal for the time being. Undrafted free agent Carson Steele was benched after his second fumble of the season in Week 4, while Samaje Perine is used primarily as a pass catcher. Ultimately, Hunt finished with 58% of the team’s carries in his first game on the active roster despite being on the field for just 43% of the snaps. Both numbers should increase in Week 5, making over 43.5 rushing yards an appealing option.

Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (+140; FanDuel)

This has to be the game where Travis Kelce finds the paint, right? With all the injuries the Chiefs are dealing with, they had no choice but to break glass in case of emergency and unleash Kelce in Week 4. He had a season-high in routes (94%), targets (38%), and air yards (40%), resulting in 7 for 89 yards. The only thing he didn’t do was find the paint. Expect him to rectify that vs. the Saints.