National Championships and Conference Championships, Are You Ready For It?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
And then there were four …
Another weekend of focused intensity and screaming at the television is in the books.
We laughed, we cried, we shook our fists at the sky …
If that four-pack of games seemed to defy your finely tuned viewer’s intuition—well, it wasn’t you:
Texans outgain the Chiefs 336-212 … and lose
Lions outgain the Commanders 521-481 … and lose
Rams outgain the Eagles 412-350 … and lose
Ravens outgain the Bills 416-273 … and lose
(If you managed not to be among this weekend’s 56+ million television viewers, no worries. Your faithful narrator was given the express honor of penning the intro to today’s inimitable Fantasy Life Newsletter, complete with short summaries and tons of links to key plays.)
Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING ODDS
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Conference Championships: Tale Of The Tape
- Boomer-Angst: Dome, Sweet, Dome
The Show Goes On …
Conference Championship Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.
Monday night mayhem, projected boxscores, and more …
4️⃣ What started as 14, is down to 4. Set for the Conference Championships.
🪓 Since we’re down to the Conference Championships, 3-team Guilloteenies are ready for your chopping pleasure.
🏆 Ready for the Natty tonight? Check out our Notre Dame-Ohio State Game Model first.
🔮 And we also have DFS projections for the big game.
💸 Mark Drumheller’s Scared Money Don’t Make Money turned $10 into $3K.
Notre Dame-Ohio State National Championship Game Best Bets & Picks
Ohio State (13-2) vs. Notre Dame (14-1)
Mon. Jan. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
Total: O/U 46.5
Adjusted Thor Line (ATL): Ohio State -5.1
When Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame will have the services of RB Jeremiyah Love (knee) in this game, HC Marcus Freeman confirmed. Love has had 10 days rest since the semis, but will assuredly not be 100 percent again. Outside of Love’s 98-yard TD run in Round 1 versus Indiana, the Irish RBs have been quiet in the CFP.
This is partly due to Love playing through injury. And partly due to mounting injuries on a reshuffled offensive line. Starting Irish freshman LT Anthonie Knapp, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the semis, will miss this game. Freeman believes starting RG Rocco Spindler – who suffered an ankle injury against Penn State – has a chance to play. Starting C Ashton Craig was already out for the season with a torn left ACL.
When Ohio State has the ball
Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the country with a mere 14.3 PPG allowed. The Irish only trail Ohio State (12.2 PPG). Notre Dame’s defense is similar to its offensive line, in that it has continued to play admirably while injuries have piled up.
Notre Dame starting EDGE Jordan Botelho (knee) was lost for the season early, and his replacement, EDGE Boubacar Traore, was knocked out for the season roughly a month later. Projected first-rounder CB Benjamin Morrison, a second-team AP All-American in 2023, is out for the year with a hip injury.
Click below for more in-depth analysis and best bets for tonight’s game.
THOR’S NATIONAL TITLE GAME BEST BETS
Notre Dame-Ohio State, National Championship Props and Picks
By Gene Clemons
Check out the Spread: Ohio State -8.5
Penn State gave Ohio State the perfect game plan to beat Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions just screwed up the execution. Ohio State is a more explosive version of Penn State. The Buckeyes also have a couple of running backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins who can really do damage against a Fighting Irish defense that has shown they can get worn down. Penn State ran the ball 42 times for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns. There’s no reason Ohio State could not come out and implement the same strategy.
In the end it was quarterback play that was the Nittany Lions’ undoing. This will not be the case for the Buckeyes as Will Howard has been playing some of the best football of his career. He has been throwing the ball all over the field. So if the Fighting Irish decide they want to limit the running game by committing bodies to the front line it will come at a price too high to pay. If they try to cover these OSU receivers man to man they will get blown out. If they get down by a couple scores early, they may not be equipped to come back. The Buckeyes will be able to open up the margin of victory from there.
Make sure to check out our CFB National Championship Game Best Bets.
COACH GENE’S NATIONAL TITLE GAME PLAYER PROPS
NFL Conference Championships🏈💥—Tale Of The Tape
NFC: No. 6 Commanders (12-5) at No. 2 Eagles (14-3)
Sun. Jan. 26, 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Eagles -5.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 47.5
OFFENSE
Points Scored Per Game: WAS 28.5 (5th) / PHI 27.2 (7th)
Yards Gained Per Game: WAS 396.6 (8th) / PHI 367.2 (9th)
EPA Per Play: WAS +0.11 (4th) / PHI +0.08 (8th)
Offensive Success Rate: WAS 50.9% (4th) / PHI 46.7% (14th)
Average Drive Distance: WAS 35.9 (5th) / PHI 33.7 (11th)
Third-Down Conversion Rate: WAS 45.6% (6th) / PHI 41.7% (10th)
DEFENSE
Points Allowed Per Game: WAS 23.0 (18th) / PHI 17.8 (2nd)
Yards Allowed Per Play: WAS 5.4 (14th) / PHI 4.7 (1st)
Defensive EPA Per Play: WAS -0.04 (24th) / PHI +0.09 (2nd)
Defensive Success Rate: WAS 53.4% (4th) / PHI 57.1% (19th)
Average Drive Distance Allowed: WAS 33.3 (26th) / PHI 26.4 (1st)
Pressure Rate: WAS 35.3% (12th) / PHI 36.8% (6th)
Third-Down Conversion Rate Allowed: WAS 38.2% (15th) / PHI 35.5% (3rd)
AFC: No. 2 Bills (13-4) at No. 1 Chiefs (15-2)
Sun. Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 48.5
OFFENSE
Points Scored Per Game: BUF 30.9 (2nd) / KC 22.6 (15th)
Yards Gained Per Game: BUF 359.1 (10th) / KC 327.6 (16th)
EPA Per Play: BUF +0.15 (3rd) / KC +0.05 (10th)
Offensive Success Rate: BUF 48.9% (10th) / KC 50.3% (5th)
Average Drive Distance: BUF 35.1 (8th) / KC 32.7 (13th)
Third-Down Conversion Rate: BUF 44.1% (7th) / KC 48.5% (2nd)
DEFENSE
Points Allowed Per Game: BUF 21.6 (11th) / KC 19.2 (4th)
Yards Allowed Per Play: BUF 5.5 (18th) / KC 5.3 (10th)
Defensive EPA Per Play: BUF +0.01 (16th) / KC +0.01 (15th)
Defensive Success Rate: BUF 54.6% (14th) / KC 54.7% (12th)
Average Drive Distance Allowed: BUF 32.5 (24th) / KC 32.0 (21st)
Pressure Rate: BUF 32.5% (23rd) / KC 35.7% (10th)
Third-Down Conversion Rate Allowed: BUF 43.8% (28th) / KC 43.3% (26th)
All stats per TruMedia.
Boomer-Angst🏈😣—Dome, Sweet, Dome
Being so analytically driven, nose buried in the spreadsheets, I don’t have a track record for hot takes or click-bait. Remaining unbiased to the best of my abilities served me very well as a handicapper over the years. That said, lapses of intellectual consistency truly grind my gears and drive me up the wall.
Yes, the games look great aesthetically on television, but all positives end there for me. Of course, I understand the NFL’s an all-weather sport and conditions come baked into the total package. However, I don’t think you should be able to have it both ways.
What do I mean? Why is the Super Bowl limited to fair-weather venues? Some will surely answer money as if there’s any shortage in that department. Others will contend it’s to get the most exciting product on the field for the casual fan.
So which is it? Before you answer, just know I don’t care what the answer is because it’s fundamentally inconsistent.
Regardless of your stance on the argument, in which both contain valid elements, if it’s good for the goose it’s good for the gander.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BEST BETS
