There's only one game on the docket in the NBA tonight, and Matt LaMarca is here with his NBA best bets and picks for Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz:

In the NBA, you can’t always get what you want. On some nights—like Wednesday’s 11-game slate—you’re going to get a ton of action to choose from. On others, the pickings are going to be slim.

The latter is, unfortunately, the case on Thursday. There’s just one game to choose from, with the Jazz hosting the Mavericks at 9 p.m. ET. Still, any opportunity to watch Luka Doncic play basketball is good enough for me, so let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for this contest.

Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA

Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday's sole game, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:

  • NBA Player Projections - Our NBA player stat projections provide full projections for baseline stats, including points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and threes. They also include projected minutes.
     
  • NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

Mavericks vs. Jazz Pick

Utah Jazz +9.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks (-112; DraftKings)

  • Bet to: Jazz +9.5 (-115)

The Jazz are quite possibly the worst team in the NBA. They’ve won just two of their first 10 games this season, and they’re dead last in Net Rating (-13.0). The team does have intriguing young pieces, but they provide more promise than actual production at this point in their careers. The team’s only “good” player is Lauri Markkanen, and he might not even be with the team for much longer.

Still, I can’t get behind the Mavericks being nearly double-digit road favorites. They’re a good team, but I don’t think they’re that good. They’re merely 10th in Net Rating to start the year, and they’re just 4-6-1 against the spread. That includes a 3-5 mark as favorites, and they’ve failed to cover in their only other opportunity as road favorites this season.

The Mavs are also still missing P.J. Washington, leaving them without one of their top options in the frontcourt. That’s not a killer, but they’ve gone just 1-3 without Washington in their past four outings. Their three losses have all been close, but it’s enough to push me towards Utah in this spot. This is also the Mavericks’ third consecutive road game, so they could be a bit worn down. They’ll head home after tonight’s contest, so don’t be surprised if they’re looking past the Jazz just a hair.

Prop Bets For Mavericks vs Jazz

Cody Williams 3.5 points (+100; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Under 3.5 (-110)

Williams was the No. 10 selection in the 2024 NBA Draft, but he’s clearly not ready for prime time. He’s averaged just 3.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game this season while shooting 26.4% from the field and 17.2% from 3-point range. He’s done that across 22.1 minutes per game, and his minutes have trended downward recently. Williams has played less than 17 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s been held off the scoreboard in both. This is a low number, but I think it’s still a bit too high.

John Collins Over 16.5 points (-113; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 17.5 (-110)

I did not have Collins leading the Jazz in usage rate on my NBA bingo card for this season, but that’s the case through their first 10 games. The injuries to Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler have allowed Collins to assume a much larger role than anticipated, and he’s responded with 17.1 points per game. He moved into the team’s starting lineup in their most recent contest, and he racked up 29 points in a season-high 34.4 minutes. If he’s going to continue to play that much, this prop is a couple of points too low.

Luka Doncic Over 29.5 points (-115; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 29.5 (-135)

Doncic was kind to us on Tuesday, going over his 28.5-point scoring prop in basically three quarters. It’s a good thing, too, because he was held off the scoresheet entirely in the fourth. I’m going right back to the well with Doncic vs. the Jazz. He hasn’t had his best start to the season, but this is a guy who averaged at least 32.4 points per game in each of the past two years. His scoring average should continue to climb, and he’s had at least 30 points in four of his past six games. As long as this one isn’t a blowout, I like his chances of making it five out of seven.

NBA Bets for November 14th

To recap my NBA card for Thursday, see below:

  • Jazz +9.5 vs. Mavericks (-112; DraftKings) - Risk 1.12u
  • Cody Williams Under 3.5 points (+100; BetMGM) - Risk 1.0u
  • John Collins Over 16.5 points (-113; FanDuel) - Risk 1.13u
  • Luka Doncic Over 29.5 points (-115; FanDuel) - Risk 1.15u

Total: Risk 4.4 units to win 4.0