After a relatively quiet night on Wednesday, the NBA is back in full swing on Thursday. There are eight games to choose from, and the action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET.
We also have a few marquee matchups to choose from. There’s a huge showdown between the Cavaliers and Nuggets in Cleveland, setting up a potential NBA Finals preview. The Cavs are off to a 19-3 start, giving them the best record in the NBA, while the Nuggets have three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Later on, we’ll have a battle between two of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season. The Warriors and Rockets were not expected to be legit contenders in the Western Conference, but they’d both have guaranteed playoff spots if they started today. The Rockets are all the way up to second place in the West, while the Warriors have dipped back down to sixth after a hot start to the year.
Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA
Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday's eight-game slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:
- NBA player projections - In addition to base-level stats, our NBA projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
- NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.
We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.
Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.
Best NBA Against The Spread Bet For Dec 5
Denver Nuggets +4.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; BetMGM)
- Bet to: Nuggets +4.0 (-110)
I have immense respect for what the Cavs have accomplished so far this season. Winning 19 of your first 22 games isn’t easy, regardless of who you’re playing. That said, it’s fair to say that they’ve been a bit fortunate. They’ve played the easiest schedule in the league so far, and when they’ve played tougher opponents, they haven’t been nearly as impressive. They split in their two matchups vs. the Celtics. They’ve won their two games vs. the Bucks by a total of three points. They lost back-to-back games vs. the Hawks.
The Nuggets are definitely one of the tougher teams they’ve faced this year despite a middling record. They’ve had to survive without Aaron Gordon for most of the season, but he’s played in two straight games and is positive for Thursday.
When the Nuggets have had Gordon on the floor this season, they’ve been as good as ever. They’ve averaged 123.4 points per 100 possessions, and their Net Rating sits at +10.2.
The Nuggets also have a pretty elite track record as underdogs. They’re 4-1 ATS when getting points this season, and they’re 24-13 ATS in that split since the start of 2022-23.
Ultimately, I just can’t pass up getting 4.5 points with the best player in the world.
NBA Player Prop Bets For Tonight
DeMar DeRozan Over 20.5 points (-115; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 20.5 (-115)
DeRozan came up short on Tuesday, but I remain undeterred. He’s one of the best scorers in recent history; he just simply didn’t shoot the ball well in his last outing. He had 15 shot attempts vs. the Rockets, and when he shoots that often, he’s going to get to 21 more often than not. DeRozan has at least 15 shot attempts in 12 games this season, and he has at least 21 points in 10 of them. The matchup vs. the Grizzlies is also solid, with Memphis playing at the third-fastest pace this season.
Jakob Poeltl Over 13.5 points (-130; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 14.5 (-110)
As long as the minutes are there for Poeltl, getting to 14 points shouldn’t be much of an issue. He’s scored at least 17 points in three straight games, and he has at least 14 points in 13 of 22 games. The Thunder are a tough matchup, but this number is simply too low.
Zach Collins Under 13.5 points (-113; Caesars)
- Play To: Under 13.5 (-120)
The Spurs are going to be without Victor Wembanyama on Thursday, which opens the door for Collins to see a solid spike in playing time. That said, this number feels aggressive. Collins has averaged just 6.0 points per game for the year, and he’s averaged just 24.4 minutes in his three starts. It’s far from a lock that he gets to 14 points with less than 30 minutes of playing time.
Recapping My NBA Bets for December 5th
To recap my NBA card for Thursday, see below:
- Nuggets +4.5 at Cavaliers (-110; BetMGM) - Risk 1.1u
- DeMar DeRozan Over 20.5 points (-115; FanDuel) - Risk 1.15u
- Jakob Poeltl Over 13.5 points (-130; FanDuel) - Risk 1.3u
- Zach Collins Under 13.5 points (-113; Caesars) - Risk 1.13u
Total: Risk 4.68 units to win 4.0.
