NBA Best Bets for February 28th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.
The sports calendar is slowly starting to ramp up.
March Madness is just around the corner, Spring Training is here, and big golf events like the Masters will be here before we know it. Still, for the time being, the NBA takes center stage.
We have another six games to choose from on Wednesday, giving us ample opportunities to look for betting value. Hopefully, we continue the success we had on Tuesday, with the Fantasy Life crew going 7-2 on nine plays posted in our NBA Bet Tracker (including 5-1 for myself).
Let’s dive into five of my favorite plays for Wednesday’s slate.
New Orleans Pelicans (+6.0) at Indiana Pacers (-110; DraftKings)
The Pelicans will be on the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday, which comes with a bit of uncertainty regarding their lineup. C.J. McCollum missed Tuesday’s win over the Knicks, while Zion Williamson is always a threat to sit out one leg of a back-to-back. He’s done that eight previous times this season, although he did suit up in both games of the team’s most recent back-to-back set.
It goes without saying that Zion is imperative to the Pelicans’ success. He’s averaged 22.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game this season, shooting better than 57% from the field. He’s propelled the Pelicans to the seventh-best Net Rating in basketball during the month of February, outscoring opponents by an average of +7.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also rattled off nine wins in their past 12 games, so they’re playing as well as anyone at the moment.
The same cannot be said for the Pacers. They haven’t been bad recently, but they haven’t been particularly good, either. They’ve gone just 6-5 in February, ranking 15th in the league in Net Rating over that time frame.
Ultimately, the injury report will be important to monitor here. As long as Williamson is in the lineup, I can’t pass up grabbing six points with the Pelicans. It’s a tough travel spot – the Pacers were off on Tuesday and haven’t left Indiana since returning from the All-Star break – but they’re simply the better team.
You can tail the Pelicans at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets when you sign up for a new account below:
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Under 210.0 (-110; FanDuel)
This total feels like a throwback to the “grit and grind” days of the Memphis Grizzlies, who routinely played at a snail’s pace and were one of the best defensive teams in basketball. The Grizzlies don’t have that same identity anymore; they’re just not very good at putting the ball in the basket. They’re merely 28th in offensive efficiency in February, averaging a paltry 104.9 points per 100 possessions.
It’s not entirely their fault, with nearly every key contributor on the squad dealing with long-term injuries. They already have six players ruled out for this contest, and John Konchar is listed as doubtful.
Things don’t figure to get any easier vs. the Timberwolves, who have been the best defensive team in basketball this season. They’ve been even better recently, allowing just 104.0 points per 100 possessions over their past 10 games.
Both of these squads have also played at a below-average pace in February, so points should be hard to come by. Even if the Timberwolves can do some damage, I don’t think Memphis will hold up their end of the bargain.
Denver Nuggets (-7.5) vs. Sacramento Kings (-108; FanDuel)
I’m a simple man. I don’t have a lot of “hard and fast” rules in life, but one of them is that if you can back the Nuggets at home at a reasonable price, you should probably do it. Denver being a dominant home team is not exactly a new development. They’re 44-33-2 ATS in Denver since the start of last season, with the altitude giving them one of the biggest home-court advantages in the league.
The Kings also set up as a perfect matchup for Denver. They’re abysmal defensively, and when Denver scores a bunch of points, they tend to win. They’re 34-7 when scoring at least 110 points this season, and the Kings are allowing 117.9 points per game. Denver is also 18-4 when shooting at least 40% from 3-point range, and no team has allowed opponents to make a higher percentage of 3-pointers than the Kings.
Sacramento is also a team that has been fortunate for most of the year. They have a Net Rating of just +0.6, which means they should be an approximately .500 ball club. Instead, they’re nine games over .500. Regression could be coming, and Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets is a perfect place to start. I’ll lay the points with the defending champs.
You can tail the Nuggets on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place a first bet of at least $5 below!
Terance Mann Over 6.5 rebounds + assists (-110; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 7.5 (-110)
- Paydirt Simulations: Over 6.5 in 71.38%
The Clippers are going to be without Paul George for the second straight game on Wednesday. Mann led the team with 39.4 minutes in his absence on Monday, and he responded with six boards and four assists. The rest of the team’s key contributors were still available – including Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Norman Powell – but Mann played more than all of them.
I don’t see why that would change Wednesday vs. the Lakers.
If Mann is going to see that much playing time, this number is simply too low. He’s racked up 7.6 rebounds + assists per 36 minutes for the year, and he’s at 9.2 rebounds + assists per 36 minutes for his career. He’s gone over this figure in four straight games, despite playing 27.7 minutes or less in two of them.
The Paydirt simulations are bullish on Mann in this spot, and so am I. I’d play the over at 7.5, so I’m happy to grab it at 6.5.
You can tail Mann on BetMGM, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Coby White Under 5.5 assists (-111; FanDuel)
- Play To: Under 5.5 (-120)
- Paydirt Simulations: Under 5.5 in 57.84%
This prop is much thinner than the first, but I do think it presents value at the current number. White has had a breakout campaign in his fifth professional season. He’s been asked to pick up the slack with Zach LaVine sidelined, and he’s responded with career highs basically across the board.
That said, White is still far from a natural distributor. Despite playing 36.4 minutes per game, he’s still averaging just 5.2 assists. He did have six dimes in his last contest, but he was at four or fewer in his three previous outings. Overall, he’s had less than six assists in 34 of his 58 games (58.6%).
His current matchup vs. the Cavaliers is going to be a tough one. They’re third in the league in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at a bottom-10 pace. Add it all up, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest points and assists per game.
As long as you can grab the under at a reasonable price tag, this is a solid spot to back.