As the calendar creeps toward the end of 2024, the NBA is officially in the air. We’ve got three games to choose from on Thursday, with the action getting underway at 8 p.m. ET.
Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA
Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday's three-game slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through each day:
- NBA DFS projections - while the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
- NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.
We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.
Plus, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.
Best NBA Bet For Thursday, November 7
Portland Trail Blazers +4.5 at San Antonio Spurs (-115; BetMGM)
- Bet to: Blazers +4.0 (-110)
This is expected to be the closest game of the day, with a spread that is down to just four points at most locations.
Neither of these squads is off to a particularly inspiring start this season, with both sitting at just 3-5. They’ve been pretty even in terms of Net Rating, with the Blazers checking in at -4.6 and the Spurs at -5.0.
That said, there are a few reasons to like the Blazers in this spot. The first is that the Spurs are on the second leg of a back-to-back. It’s not a particularly bad travel spot—they were on the road in Houston on Wednesday—and most of their starters didn’t see much burn in a blowout loss. However, it’s still the second straight day where the Spurs will be in action, while the Blazers have been off since Monday.
Additionally, the Spurs are currently without Jeremy Sochan. They aren’t a team with a ton of depth to begin with, and now you’re removing one of their best players from the equation. No one has played more minutes for the Spurs since the start of last season, while their Net Rating has declined to -6.4 with Sochan off the floor this year.
The Spurs still have the better outlook, but I’m not sure they’re that much better at this exact moment. I’ll take the 4.5 points.
NBA Player Prop Bets For Thursday, November 7
Stephen Castle Over 2.5 assists (+125; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 2.5 (+110)
Castle figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from the absence of Sochan. The No. 4 pick in the 2024 NBA draft made his first career start on Wednesday, and he was second on the team in minutes. He could see close to 30 minutes if tonight’s game is more competitive, and he’s averaged 2.0 assists in roughly 20 minutes per game this season. I like the value at +125.
Cody Williams Over 5.5 points (-118; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 6.5 (-110)
Let’s go straight from one rookie to another. Williams is coming off his best game as a professional in his last outing, racking up 11 points in 30 minutes. He’s now played more than 25.2 minutes in two contests, and he’s scored at least nine points in both of them. The Jazz are expected to get Lauri Markkanen back on Thursday, but they’re clearly not looking to contend this season. I expect around 28 minutes for Williams vs. the Bucks, and if he gets to that threshold, this number is simply too low.
Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 3-pointers (-120; DraftKings)
- Play To: Under 3.5 (-130)
Edwards was raining down 3-pointers to start the season, but he’s pulled back a bit over his past few games. He’s had six and seven 3-point attempts in his past two contests, which is a far cry from his average of 13.4 through his first five games. If that trend continues, this number is simply too high. The Bulls have been above-average at preventing 3-pointers to start the year, so I’ll take a flyer on less than 3.5 for Edwards in this matchup.
My NBA Bets for November 7th
To recap my NBA card for the Thursday, see below:
- Blazers +4.5 at Spurs (-115; BetMGM) - Risk 1.15u
- Stephen Castle Over 2.5 assists (+125; BetMGM) - Risk 1.0u
- Cody Williams Over 5.5 points (-118; FanDuel) - Risk 1.18
- Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 3-pointers (-120; DraftKings) - Risk 1.2u
Total: Risk 4.53 units to win 4.25.
