NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, February 6th. Sides, Totals, and Player Props to Bet.
We have a bigger NBA slate than usual for a Tuesday, with seven different games to choose from.
Only two of the 14 teams were in action on Monday, so most of these squads should be rested and ready to go.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate.
New York Knicks (-14.5) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-110; Caesars)
It feels a little bit fishy to lay nearly 15 points with the Knicks, but I really don’t care. Have you seen the state of the Grizzlies roster recently? Their injury report is stuffed to the gills.
Ja Morant is out for the season, and six other players have already been ruled out. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman are both listed as doubtful, while Vince Williams Jr., Derrick Rose, John Konchar, and Santi Aldama are questionable.
If this game was being played in Memphis, they might literally be looking to sign fans to 10-day contracts as they walk into the stadium.
The Knicks have some injury issues of their own, with Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Quentin Grimes all still sidelined. However, they’ve been able to overcome their absences. They’ve won three of their past four games without Anunoby and Randle, with two of those victories coming by at least 15 points.
They still have Jalen Brunson, who has blossomed into one of the best point guards in basketball this season. Donte DiVincenzo has also taken on a larger role, while Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa have given them excellent minutes in the frontcourt. This team plays hard on a nightly basis, which should be enough to beat the Grizzlies by a comfortable margin.
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Dallas Mavericks (-3.0) at Brooklyn Nets (-108; FanDuel)
The two teams that are on back-to-backs just happen to be squaring off against each other on Tuesday. The Mavs are coming off a comfortable win over the 76ers on Monday, while the Nets lost to the Warriors.
The big news for Brooklyn is that Ben Simmons will suit up in this matchup for just the third time since Nov. 8. However, Simmons has been limited to less than 20 minutes in each of his past two contests, so expect his impact to be minimal.
The bigger development is that the team saw Cam Johnson and Lonnie Walker go down with injuries on Monday. Neither player has been officially ruled out yet, but it’s far from certain that they’ll be in the lineup. Dorian Finney-Smith is also expected to get the night off, while Spencer Dinwiddie seems relegated to the fact that he’ll be playing somewhere else after the trade deadline. The Nets are not deep enough to withstand multiple parts of their rotation being unavailable.
On the other hand, the Mavs are healthier than they’ve been in a while. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic both suited up on Monday, and the Mavs have unsurprisingly been good with both players on the floor this season. They’re averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions in that split, good for a Net Rating of +4.6.
That might not be good enough to make the Mavs true contenders in the Western Conference, but it should be enough to get them past the banged-up Nets in Brooklyn. I’ll lay the three points.
You can tail the Mavs at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns Over 243.5 (-110; BetMGM)
This is a big number, which might scare a few people off. Don’t be one of them. These two teams are capable of putting up points in bunches, even if the Bucks are at less than 100%.
Milwaukee has completely flipped the script this season. In previous years, they were an elite defensive team, but their offense could become bogged down at times. This year, they’re fourth in the league in Offensive Efficiency, and they’re merely 19th on the defensive end. They’ve also played at the third-fastest pace in the league, and they’re first in that department over their past 10 games.
Feb 4, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks the ball during the second half against the Utah Jazz at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
The team could be without Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez on Tuesday, but that shouldn’t matter too much. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the biggest driving force on offense, and the team has managed a healthy 115.8 Offensive Rating with Lillard off the floor.
The Suns' full-season numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Milwaukee’s, but most of that stems from injuries.
They haven’t had their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal together often, but when they have, they’ve been incredible. That trio has posted an unreal 131.4 Offensive Rating when sharing the court, which they’ve done quite a bit recently. Overall, they’ve averaged 125 points over their past seven games, and that number would be even higher if not for a 98-point effort on the road vs. the Magic.
With the way these teams can score the rock, I’m expecting an abundance of points in this matchup. I’d play the over up to 245.
You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can sign up with code FANTASYLIFE below to get $158 in bonus bets!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists (+114; DraftKings)
I love betting on props at better than even money, especially when I think the true odds are better than 50%. SGA fits that mold on Tuesday.
Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a point guard in the traditional sense. He’s a scorer more than a distributor, averaging 31.1 points compared to 6.6 assists per game. However, he’s been sharing the rock a bit more frequently of late, handing out at least eight assists in three of his past four games. That includes 14 assists in his last contest, which was his highest output of the season.
The Jazz also represent a phenomenal matchup. They’ve allowed the second-most assists per game this season, and they’re merely 25th in Defensive Rating. James McCool from Paydirt has SGA going over 7.5 assists nearly 65% of the time in this matchup using his Prop Bet Simulator:
The over is priced at just +102 on FanDuel, so grabbing the +114 on DraftKings is a solid value.
Aaron Nesmith Over 4.5 rebounds (-130; DraftKings)
Nesmith has become an important part of the Pacers’ rotation, largely due to his ability to knock down 3-pointers. He’s shooting 46.3% from 3-point range for the season, which has helped propel the Pacers to one of the best offensive seasons in league history.
Nesmith has seen his playing time rise as a result. He’s logged at least 28.9 minutes in seven of his past eight games, and he’s pulled down at least six boards in each of them. With Tyrese Haliburton continuing to play limited minutes, it seems unlikely that Nesmith’s role will diminish anytime soon.
This is another prop that grades out well using the Paydirt simulations, with the Over hitting 67.3% of the time. His median outcome is closer to six rebounds, so -130 is simply too low.
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