NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, January 30th. Expect a ton of offense in Pacers-Celtics.
It’s that time of year, baby!
If you’re someone who primarily bets on the NFL, it’s time to start dipping your toes into some of the other offerings across the various sportsbooks.
The NBA has five games to choose from on Tuesday, which gives us plenty of opportunity to looking for betting value. Let’s dive into some of my favorite sides and props, which can also be found in the free NBA Bet Tracker.
Utah Jazz (+4.5) at New York Knicks (-114; FanDuel)
The Knicks have been nothing short of one of the best teams in the league since trading for OG Anunoby. They’ve gone 13-2 over their past 15 games, and they lead the league with a +15.6 Net Rating over that time frame. They’re now tied with the 76ers for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’re just two games behind the Bucks for No. 2.
However, the team is currently dealing with a few key injuries. Julius Randle went down vs. the Heat on Saturday, and he’s expected to miss multiple weeks. Anunoby also missed Monday’s contest vs. the Hornets after aggravating a pre-existing injury during warmups.
The team didn’t need both players vs. the Hornets, who are one of the worst teams in basketball. It could be a different story vs. the Jazz, who have played significantly better after a slow start to the year. They’ve won 17 of their past 25 games, and they’re ninth in Net Rating over their past 15.
Both of these teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but the Jazz should be a bit fresher after a blowout loss. None of their starters played more than 26.6 minutes, while the Knicks had multiple players eclipse 30. Donte DiVincenzo played just under 42 minutes, while Josh Hart played 39.2. As long as Anunoby remains sidelined, I like the Jazz to cover and potentially win this game outright.
You can tail the Jazz on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet below:
Philadelphia 76ers (+3.5) at Golden State Warriors (-108; DraftKings)
I’m willing to take a little bit of a risk with the 76ers on Tuesday. This line would present immense value if Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are able to return to the lineup after missing their past two games. Their statuses are currently TBD, so there’s at least a chance that happens.
When Embiid has been in the lineup this season, the 76ers are one of the best teams in basketball. They’ve complied a 26-7 record with their star big man, which is not surprising given the numbers he’s putting up. No one in league history – not even Wilt Chamberlain or Michael Jordan – has scored the ball at the level Embiid has this season:
If Embiid is able to return, the 76ers should probably be favored against this slumping Warriors squad. They’ve lost eight of their past 11 games, and they’re 22nd in Net Rating over that span. Steph Curry continues to play at a really high level, but the rest of his teammates have had dreadful seasons. Injuries have sapped Klay Thompson of most of his abilities, while Draymond Green is a shell of his former self.
Even if Embiid doesn’t play, I still think the 76ers have the potential to cover in this spot. The Warriors are a dreadful 8-17 ATS this season as favorites, so they’ve been overvalued for most of the season.
You can tail the Sixers at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics Over 245.0 (-110; Caesars)
The Pacers have been an over machine this season. They’ve gone 27-19-2 to the over this season, and they’ve had one of the best offenses in basketball history.
That’s not an exaggeration. They’re averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions, which puts them on pace for the greatest Offensive Rating in league history. They’ve done that despite playing a solid chunk of games without Tyrese Haliburton, who is their best offensive player. When Haliburton has been on the floor this season, the team has averaged an eye-popping 126.6 points per 100 possessions.
Jan 6, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) shoots the ball against Boston Celtics guard Derrick White (9) in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Haliburton has missed 10 of the team’s past 11 contests, but he is expected to return to the lineup vs. the Celtics. The timing could not be better, with the Celtics serving as the top team in basketball. They’re going to need him to have any chance of keeping this game competitive.
The Celtics are also very capable of putting the ball in the basket. They’re second in Offensive Rating this season, checking in at 120.3 points per 100 possessions. Their last game vs. the Pacers featured 264 total points, so they’re more than capable of turning this game into a track meet.
The Celtics could also be a bit less stout defensively than usual if Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) and Al Horford (injury management) are out of the lineup.
You can tail the over at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you create your new account below:
Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3-pointers (-140; BetMGM)
I rode DiVincenzo’s points + rebounds + assists prop to a comfortable over on Monday, and I’m going back to the well on Tuesday. His PRA prop has come up significantly – it’s 28.5 after opening at 20.5 on Monday – so I’m going to go in a slightly different direction. Instead, let’s take a look at the over on his 3-point prop, which is priced at a reasonable -140.
DiVincenzo has had an outstanding season from the 3-point line. He’s shooting a career-best 41.8% from distance on a career-high 6.5 attempts per game. He’s done that in just 22.7 minutes per game, and he has the potential for significantly more playing time on Tuesday.
He logged 41.9 minutes Monday vs. the Hornets, and he responded with a season-high 15 3-point attempts. Those are definitely on the high side of his range of outcomes, but 10+ 3-point attempts definitely feels reasonable.
Our friend James McCool at Paydirt has DiVincenzo’s median outcome at 4.5 3-pointers in this contest, and his simulations have him hitting the over more than 80% of the time. That’s more than good enough to bet at -140.
You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with code FANTASYLIFE and place your first $5 bet!
Simone Fontecchio Over 3.5 rebounds (+122; FanDuel)
One of the reasons for Utah’s improved play of late has been the inclusion of Fontecchio in the starting lineup. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s capable of doing a little bit of everything.
As a member of the starting lineup, Fontecchio has averaged 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s logged at least four boards in seven of his past eight contests, so I’m not sure why his over is priced at +122 at the moment.
The Knicks aren’t an ideal team for rebounding purposes – they’re first in the league in team rebound rate – but they’re not quite as intimidating without Randle and Mitch Robinson. The Jazz are also No. 2 in team rebound rate, so they’re capable of going toe-to-toe with New York on the glass. As long as Fontecchio continues to start, I’m going to be interested in the over on his rebounding prop at better than even money.