The 2024-25 season tips off tonight, and Joe Metz is here with his NBA best bets for Tuesday's opening slate:
The defending champions, the greatest player of all time (yes, it's LeBron James), and the NBA's favorite rising superstar (Anthony Edwards) all suit up tonight? Yeah, we're back.
Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA
Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Tuesday's two-game Opening Night slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:
- NBA DFS projections - while the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
- NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.
We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.
Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.
Knicks vs Celtics Pick
Sam Hauser Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-160; BetMGM)
- Play to: -180
The Knicks forecast to have an elite defensive unit this season, health permitting, similar to last season. That defense, however, was beatable behind the arc, as the Knicks allowed a 37.0% three-point percentage last season, good for 21st in the league.
In this matchup and with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined, we currently project Hauser for 22.3 minutes. This is in line with his average last season of 22.0 minutes per game, averaging 7.1 three-point attempts as a 42.4% shooter.
While hitting a bet is never this simple, sometimes analyzing one is. A volume-based three-point shooter against a three-point funnel matchup, in a game where he could see additional minutes with a key frontcourt player injured. That's enough for me to drink the juice.
Bet: 1.6 units to win 1 unit
Lakers vs TWolves Pick
D'Angelo Russell Over 15.5 Points (-120; FanDuel)
- Play to: -130
I nearly locked in another three-point prop here thanks to JJ Redick's repeated reassurance that this Lakers offense will be prioritizing three-point shooting more. Instead, I'm opting for the points prop for D'Angelo Russell.
It feels safe to assume that Rudy Gobert will be focusing his defensive attention on Anthony Davis while Jaden McDaniels will be tasked with the LeBron assignment.
That leaves both Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell as two players in positions where they'll be tasked with stepping up and likely, positions with more opportunity in front of them.
These teams met four times last season and that expanded opportunity proved true for Russell in these games, firing off at least 12 shots in three of the four games (17 points, 13, and 15 points in these games), and 19 shots in two of the three (17 and 15 points in these games). The fourth game, where he only saw 20 minutes, only resulted in four (5 points).
I fully expect heavy minutes, as do our projections (32.0), as this game carries a one-point spread with a 222-point total that is drawing lots of attention from the public on the over (84% of the bets, per Action Network). I'm willing to take a similar, more specific angle with a player who should see an expanded role again.
Bet: 1.2 units to win 1 unit
NBA Bets for October 22nd
To recap my (small) card for the Opening Night NBA slate, see below:
- Sam Hauser o1.5 3PM (-160; BetMGM) - Risk 1.6u
- D'Angelo Russell o15.5 Points (-120; FanDuel) - Risk 1.2u
Total: Risk 2.8 units to win 2 units
