The first full week of NBA hoops is here, and Matt LaMarca is here to break down his NBA best bets for October 29:

As the calendar creeps toward the end of 2024, the NBA is officially in the air. We’ve got four games to choose from on Tuesday, starting with two games at 7:30 p.m. ET. One features a rematch from last year’s Western Conference Finals, with the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Dallas Mavericks.

Tonight's NBA Best Bets For Tuesday, Oct. 29

My NBA best bets for Tuesday, Oct. 29 include:

  • Pelicans -1.5
  • Jordan Hawkins o2.5 3PM
  • Anthony Edwards o26.5 points
  • Cam Thomas u3.5 assists

Before we dive into the analysis behind my NBA best bets for Tuesday, I want to call out our various NBA tools:

  • NBA DFS projections - While the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
     
  • NBA Player Prop Finder - Ensure you are getting the best price for each player prop you bet.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

Best NBA Side/Total Bet For Oct. 29

Pelicans vs Warriors Pick

New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 at Golden State Warriors (-110; BetMGM)

  • Bet to: Pelicans -2.5 (-110)

The Warriors are off to a phenomenal start this season, but they’re going to hit a speed bump over the next few days. Steph Curry suffered an ankle injury on Sunday, and the team is going to have to survive without him for at least the next two games. The team is already without De’Anthony Melton and likely Andrew Wiggins, so the injuries are starting to pile up.

The Warriors did manage to survive without Curry last season, posting a 3-5 record in games without their talisman. However, two of those wins came in the final month of the year, and both were against the tanking Jazz. Their other win was against the Spurs, but they went 0-5 against playoff-caliber opponents. Add in no Wiggins or Klay Thompson, and it’s hard to see where they’re going to find consistent offense from.

The Pelicans aren’t at full strength either—they’re currently down Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy—but they still have plenty of talent available. Most notably, Zion Williamson has suited up each of the past two games, and he remains a force when he’s on the floor. Since the start of last season, the Pelicans have a +3.1 Net Rating with Williamson on the floor.

The Pelicans will probably be a pretty “chalky” wager, but that doesn’t make it a bad one. They should be able to pick up the W.

Tonight's Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Jordan Hawkins Over 2.5 3-pointers (+140; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Over 2.5 (+120)

I love taking coin-flip-type props at better than even money, and that’s what I feel we're getting with Hawkins on Tuesday. He’s an absolute sharpshooter, and the injury to Murphy has allowed him to play more minutes in his second season. He’s responded by averaging 3.0 3-pointers per game while shooting better than 50% from downtown.

He likely won’t shoot at that high of a clip all season, but he’s a guy who should be above 40% when all is said and done. The Warriors have been stingy against 3-pointers this season, but their opponents are still getting up decent volume from that area. That makes them due for a bit of regression.

Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-118; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 26.5 (-125)

I don’t have a ton of fancy stats for this one; just a gut feeling. But Edwards is the type of dude who “wants the smoke.” He’s squaring off against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year in his building. You don’t think he’s going to go for the jugular?

Edwards hasn’t shot the ball particularly efficiently to start the year, but he’s still averaging a career-high 23.3 field goal attempts and 27.7 points per game. I think he gets to 30+ in this matchup.

Cam Thomas Under 3.5 assists (-130; DraftKings)

  • Play To: Under 3.5 (-140)

Thomas is having a breakout in his fourth professional season, averaging more than 30 points per game through his first three outings. With Mikal Bridges gone and the Nets clearly rebuilding, he should have the chance to play much more consistently than at any previous point of his career.

That said, Thomas is there primarily to get buckets. His work as a distributor leaves a lot to be desired. He averaged just 2.9 dimes last season, and he’s at 2.7 so far this season. The Nuggets were eighth in defensive rating last year and ninth so far this season, and they also tend to play at a slow pace. Getting Under 3.5 in this spot is a strong value.

NBA Bets for October 29th

To recap my NBA card for the Tuesday, see below:

  • Pelicans -1.5 at Warriors (-110; BetMGM) - Risk 1.1u to win 1 unit.
  • Jordan Hawkins Over 2.5 3-pointers (+140; BetMGM) - Risk 1.0u to win 1.4 units
  • Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-118; FanDuel) - Risk 1.18u to win 1 unit.
  • Cam Thomas Under 3.5 assists (-130; DraftKings) - Risk 1.3u to win 1 unit.

Total: Risk 4.53 units to win 4.4 units