With a full slate on tap, Matt LaMarca is here with his NBA bets and picks for Dec 19:

We’ve had a bit of a sporadic NBA schedule of late. There was just one game on Tuesday—the NBA Cup final between the Bucks and Thunder—and the entire league was off on Wednesday. However, we’re back in full swing on Thursday with 13 different games to choose from. That gives us plenty of opportunity to look for value in the betting market.

Tonight's Best NBA Bets

Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday’s slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:

  • NBA Player Projections - Our NBA player projections include minutes projections on top of baseline stat projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
     
  • NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors Pick

  • Pick: Nets +4.0 (-110; Caesars)
  • Bet to: Nets +3.5 (-110)

This game may not jump off the page to most people. These are two bad teams, so I can’t imagine this is high on the League Pass radar.

However, I like the idea of grabbing four points with the Nets in this spot. What has Toronto done to justify being favored by four against anyone? They’ve won just seven of their first 27 games, and they’re merely 23rd in Net Rating (-4.6). That is slightly better than the Nets’ mark (-4.9), but it’s still far from impressive.

The Raptors have been good at covering the spread this season—they’re 18-8-1—but this is literally their first game of the year where they haven’t been an underdog. The Nets are also 13-8-1 ATS as dogs, so they’re covering at a nearly 62% clip.

The Raptors could get a boost from the return of Scottie Barnes, who is officially listed as questionable. That said, they’re still far from full strength. They’re still without Immanuel Quickley, while Jakob Poeltl will join him on the sidelines on Thursday.

The Nets haven’t been particularly competitive of late, but they’ve had to run a really tough gauntlet. Their past three games have been against the Cavaliers, Grizzlies, and Bucks, so the Raptors are a significant step down in competition. Ultimately, I expect them to keep this game close and potentially pull off the outright upright.

Best NBA Player Props

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 points (-105; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Over 7.5 (-125)

The Timberwolves are starting to play a bit better, and they’re currently tied for sixth in the Western Conference standings. Alexander-Walker hasn’t seen a ton of playing time of late, but he’s made the most out of his minutes. He’s scored at least eight points in seven of his past nine outings, including at least 17 points in two of his past three. I like his chances of going over again vs. the Knicks, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this season.

Royce O’Neale Over 7.5 points (-110; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Over 7.5 (-125)

If you’re only looking at game logs, this number for O’Neale seems way too low. He’s scored at least 13.0 points in five straight games, and he’s averaged 17.6 points per game over that stretch. However, Bradley Beal will return to the lineup on Thursday, which should shift O’Neale back to a reserve role.

Still, he’s been playing so well that he should still see plenty of minutes off the bench. O’Neale has still averaged 9.4 points per game as a reserve this season, and the Pacers are an ideal matchup. They’re sixth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, so this number is simply too low.

RJ Barrett Under 25.5 points (-110; DraftKings)

  • Play To: Under 25.5 (-125)

If Barnes is able to return to the lineup, it’s going to have a significant impact on Barrett’s scoring ability. He’s seen a 3.76% decrease in usage rate when sharing the floor with Barnes, so he’s not going to have to do quite as much. This play also correlates a bit with my Nets’ wager, so I’m happy to double-dip.

NBA Bets and Picks for December 19th

To recap my NBA card for Thursday, see below:

  • Nets +4.0 at Raptors (-110; Caesars) - Risk 1.1u
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 points (-105; BetMGM) - Risk 1.05u
  • Royce O’Neale Over 7.5 points (-110; BetMGM) - Risk 1.1u
  • RJ Barrett Under 25.5 points (-110; DraftKings) - Risk 1.1u

Total: Risk 4.35 units to win 4.0.