The NBA Cup quarterfinal games are completed, so we’re back to the traditional NBA schedule for Thursday. You might think that means a return to a regular number of games, but you’d be wrong. We have just three contests to choose from once again on Thursday, bringing our total to a whopping eight games so far this week. Sometimes, I just don’t know what the league is doing.

Unfortunately, there isn’t even a marquee game on the schedule to get excited about. We do get to see the defending champs in action, but they’re significant favorites at home vs. the Pistons. The other two contests are Raptors-Heat and Kings-Pelicans, so it’s one of the weaker slates of the year from a pure talent perspective.

Still, just because the games might not be great doesn’t mean we can’t try to win some money.

Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA

Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday's three-game slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:

  • NBA player projections - while the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
     
  • NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

Pistons at Celtics Pick For Dec 12

Detroit Pistons (+11.5) at Boston Celtics (-110; FanDuel)

  • Bet to: Pistons +10.5 (-110)

The Celtics hung banner No. 18 in the rafters earlier this season, and they’re off to another fantastic start. They’ve won 19 of their first 24 contests, and they’re third in the league in Net Rating. They trail only the Thunder and Cavaliers in that department, and they remain the betting favorites to take home the title.

However, they are going to be without Jayson Tatum on Thursday. He’s already been ruled out, and he’s the team’s clear top player. He’s having arguably his best season as a pro, emerging as an MVP candidate after making All-NBA First-Team in the past three seasons.

The Celtics still have a ton of talent, so they’re capable of winning games without him. Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and the rest of the team are still very likely to get the job done vs. the Pistons. However, they’re not nearly as effective. Their Net Rating drops to just +0.8 with Tatum off the floor, and while that’s partially inflated by garbage time minutes, it’s still not an inspiring figure.

Meanwhile, the Pistons are a bit more competitive this season. They’re currently sitting at 10-15, and they’re 19th in Net Rating. That’s not good, but it’s not nearly as bad as they’ve been in years past. Cade Cunningham has emerged as a legit No. 1 option offensively, while they’ve gotten production from veterans like Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Ultimately, I don’t think the Celtics deserve to by favored by quite this much. This number has already adjusted following the Tatum news—they moved from -14.0 to -11.5—but I think it has the potential to come down a bit further.

Best NBA Player Props For Dec 10

Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 points (-125; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 21.5 (-120)

Someone is going to have to score the ball with Tatum out of the picture. Jaylen Brown is the most logical candidate, but Porzingis has actually seen the bigger bump with Tatum off the floor. He’s seen a team-high +5.99% increase to his usage rate in that split, resulting in an average of just under 31 points per 36 minutes. Porzingis’ minutes are also trending in the right direction, logging a season-high 33.3 in his last outing. With the team last playing on Saturday, he should be ready to carry an expanded role vs. the Pistons.

Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 3-pointers (+130; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Under 0.5 (+120)

Adebayo is having the best year of his career from 3-point range…but that’s not really saying much. He’s averaging 2.9 attempts per game and knocking down 33.3% of them. The result is an average of 1.0 makes per contest, shattering his previous career high of 0.2 last season. That still leaves plenty of room for Adebayo to take an 0-fer from behind the arc. He’s attempted three 3-pointers or fewer in 14 of his 22 games, and going 0-3 is well within his range of outcomes. This feels more like a 50-50 proposition, and I love taking 50-50s at +130.

Jakob Poeltl Over 14.5 points (-111; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 15.5 (-125)

The Raptors were already playing without Immanuel Quickley, and now they’re going to be without Scottie Barnes for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t leave them with a ton of guys who can put the ball in the basket. Poeltl is one of them, and he’s averaged 15.9 points per game for the year. He’s playing more consistent minutes than at any previous point in his NBA career, and that shouldn’t change with Barnes out of the picture.

Recapping My NBA Bets for December 12th

To recap my NBA card for Thursday, see below:

  • Pistons +11.5 at Celtics (-110; FanDuel) - Risk 1.1u
  • Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 points (-125; FanDuel) - Risk 1.25u
  • Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 3-pointers (+130; BetMGM) - Risk 1u
  • Jakob Poeltl Over 14.5 points (-111; FanDuel) - Risk 1.11u

Total: Risk 4.46 units to win 4.3.