In the NBA, they say a playoff series doesn’t start until someone loses at home. If that’s the case, none of the eight series officially started in Game 1.
The home teams dominated across the first two days of the NBA playoffs, going a perfect 8-0. Only one of those teams failed to cover the spread (Thunder), while two home squads won as underdogs (Bucks and Clippers).
Can the home teams continue to dominate? We’ll have three Game 2s on Monday, and all three home squads are favored by at least 5.5 points. Let’s dive into my NBA best bets for those contests.
NBA Bets for 4/22 – Top Picks for Monday's NBA Playoff Games
76ers (+6.0) at Knicks (-110; DraftKings)
The Knicks managed to take care of business in Game 1, but that game was closer than the final score suggested.
The 76ers led by three points heading into the fourth quarter, but they couldn’t manage to get across the finish line. Joel Embiid was 0-5 from the field in the final frame, while Josh Hart nailed three 3-pointers and the Knicks gobbled up eight offensive boards.
Despite the loss, there were still some positives to take away for the 76ers. For starters, Embiid looked significantly better than he did during the Play-In Tournament. He still wasn’t particularly efficient – he shot just 8-22 from the field – but the 76ers outscored the Knicks by 14 points when their star big man was on the court. Tyrese Maxey also had his way with the Knicks’ defense, leading the team with 33 points.
The 76ers also posted a higher effective field goal percentage than New York in the first contest. If they did a better job on the glass, they likely would’ve secured the win. The Knicks are an elite rebounding team – they were first in team rebound rate during the regular season – but a 48.9% offensive rebound rate is not the kind of number you should ever see in an NBA contest.
As long as the 76ers are better in that department on Monday, I like their chances of covering the spread.
Nuggets (-7.0) vs. Lakers (-108; FanDuel)
Sometimes, a team just has your number. That’s the case with the Nuggets and Lakers at the moment. It doesn’t seem to matter where or when these two teams play; the Nuggets simply come out on top.
We saw it in last year’s postseason, where the Nuggets managed a four-game sweep of the Lakers. They followed that up with a 3-0 mark vs. LA in this year’s regular season, and they took care of business in Game 1. LeBron James hasn’t won a game in Denver since the 2019-20 season.
The Lakers are led by a veteran group, but all that losing has to take a toll mentally. The Nuggets have the best player in the world operating at a ridiculous level, so getting past them isn’t easy to begin with. Add in the fact that you haven’t beaten this team in nearly two years, and Denver has a serious edge in this series.
The Nuggets were able to pull away from the Lakers in Game 1, outscoring them by 14 points in the second half. I have no problem laying seven points with them in Game 2.
More NBA Bets for Monday's Playoff Games
Magic (+5.5) at Cavaliers (-110)
This is the game I’m least confident in on Monday, but the sharps appear to like Orlando. They were blitzed in Game 1, with the Cavs jumping out to a 12-point lead in the first quarter, but the Magic played them pretty evenly from that point on. If they can avoid putting themselves in an early first-quarter hole, this contest should be competitive.
Kyle Lowry Over 2.5 assists (-118)
Lowry had just two assists in Game 1, but I like his chances of going over this number on Monday. He played 38.8 minutes on Saturday – the second-highest mark on the team – and Lowry averaged 5.8 assists per 36 minutes in 23 regular season games with the 76ers. NBA.com credited Lowry with six potential assists in Game 1, so he has plenty of room for improvement in Game 2.
Evan Mobley Under 9.5 rebounds (-105)
Mobley had 11 boards in Game 1 vs. the Magic, but Orlando managed just 83 points. That resulted in a lot of missed shots, which allowed Cleveland to rack up 54 rebounds. Orlando should be more efficient in Game 2, and this series will be played at a snail’s pace. There should be far fewer rebound opportunities available for the Cavs on Monday, so Mobley feels like a solid regression candidate.
