Tuesday saw the two home teams reestablish dominance in their series. The Nuggets and Knicks both returned home with their series tied at two games apiece, and both squads were able to secure comfortable victories.

Teams that go up 3-2 tend to advance at an extremely high rate, but both teams will have to go on the road for Game 6. We’ll see if the Timberwolves or Pacers can put up a better fight and force a decisive Game 7 when looking for the best bets for Wednesday's NBA playoff games.

This slate offers up our first potential closeout game of the second round. The Celtics currently hold a 3-1 lead over the Cavaliers, and they’re favored by nearly 15 points in Game 5. If they can take care of business, they’ll have some time to rest up before a date with either the Knicks or Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Wednesday’s other series features the Thunder hosting the Mavericks. OKC managed to secure a win in Game 4 to knot the series up at two games apiece. With Luka Doncic clearly hobbled, the ball is definitely in OKC’s court.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Wednesday’s slate.

NBA Bets for May 15th

Celtics (-14.5) vs. Cavaliers (-110; DraftKings)

The Celtics managed to seize control of this series with two wins in Cleveland, and they’ll return home with a chance to close things out. That said, that might not be a good thing. The Celtics are merely 14-14 at home over the past three postseasons, so they’ve tended to play better on the road than in Boston Garden.

The Cavaliers’ injury report will be crucial to monitor. The biggest name is Donovan Mitchell, who surprisingly missed Game 4 with a calf injury. If he’s unable to return in Game 5, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Cavaliers are competitive. Jarrett Allen is also questionable after missing the first four games of the series, while Caris LeVert is questionable with a knee injury.

Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics are simply too good to face at less than 100%. They were the top team in the league in Net Rating during the regular season (+11.7), and they’ve somehow been even better during the postseason (+12.3). They have so many options that can beat you on offense, and their defense was only worse than Minnesota’s during the regular season.

Ultimately, it feels like the Cavs are ready to go home. They’re not healthy, they’re outmatched, and a win in Game 5 would only delay the inevitable.

More Bets for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games

Thunder -4.0 vs. Mavericks (-110)

I picked the Mavericks to advance at the start of the series, but I’m officially changing horses midrace. The big reason for that is the injury to Doncic.

He simply doesn’t look like the same player at this point.

He’s averaged just 22.0 points per game this series while shooting 39.0% from the field, 31.0% from 3-point range, and 67.9% from the free throw line. Luka averaged just shy of 34 points per game during the regular season, so it has been a major struggle for him vs. OKC.

The Mavericks managed to win two games thanks to some hot shooting from P.J. Washington, but that’s not a sustainable formula. The Thunder are the better team at this point, and after getting the momentum back in Game 4, I like their chances for a comfortable win back in OKC.

Dereck Lively Over 6.5 points (-120)

Lively has split the center minutes with Daniel Gafford vs. OKC, but his playing time has increased as the series has progressed. He’s played at least 20 minutes in three straight games, including at least 25.2 in his past two outings.

Lively has scored at least seven points in both of those contests, and the Thunder have employed some intentional foul strategies involving Lively as well. That resulted in 12 free throw attempts in Game 3. It gives Lively an extra path to the over on his scoring prop, but he should be able to get there even without it.

Derrick White Over 2.5 3-pointers (-112) 

Let’s continue to target guys who spell “Derek” wrong in the prop market. White has been outstanding from the 3-point line all season. He shot a career-best 39.8% from 3-point range during the regular season, knocking down an average of 2.7 per game.

He’s been even better during the postseason, with at least three triples in five of nine contests. White is coming off a pedestrian showing in Game 4, so this feels like a strong opportunity to buy low on him.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+.275 units)
  • Futures: 3-2 w/ three pending (+0.25)
  • Playoffs: 31-34 (-2.95 units)