Thursday’s NBA action was a bit of a mixed bag for us. I did go 2-1 on my picks, but unfortunately, my one loss was my biggest play. However, we also officially cashed the Timberwolves +1.5 games bet from before the start of the series. Ultimately, it was a slightly profitable day overall.

I liked the Timberwolves’ chances of getting a win in Game 6, but I did not expect a 45-point blowout. The series will head back to Denver for Game 7 on Sunday, and the defending champs will look to bounce back on their home floor.

We have another potential elimination game on the docket today when looking at our best bets for Pacers vs. Knicks Game 6. The Knicks will look to knock off the Pacers in Indiana and officially set up a matchup vs. the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, the Pacers won the first two games in Indiana in this series, and they’re comfortable favorites on Friday.

Can they survive elimination, or will the Knicks move on to the next round? Let’s dive into my favorite NBA bets for May 17.

Best Bet for Pacers vs. Knicks Game 6

Pacers (-5.5) vs. Knicks (+100; Caesars)

If there has been one lesson from the NBA postseason, it’s that you should be zigging when the rest of the world is zagging. We’ve seen it time and time again. The Knicks were left for dead after losing Games 3 and 4, only to storm back with an easy win in Game 5. The Nuggets were written off after losing the first two games on their home court, but they responded with three straight wins. When people finally thought the Nuggets were going to cruise to victory in Game 6, Minnesota won in a laugher.

The public sentiment is currently trending towards New York. People really like this Knicks team (myself included). They’re fun. They have a trio of overlooked players leading the way who just so happened to play together in college. They’re an easy team to root for, and people like to bet on teams that they like.

That said, all the problems that existed for the Knicks in the past three games still exist now. They’re extremely shorthanded, with OG Anunoby remaining out of the lineup with a hamstring injury. The Knicks managed to survive by moving Miles McBride into the starting lineup in Game 5, but playing that small could have consequences in Game 6.

Additionally, the Knicks really weren’t as good as the final score might indicate in their last contest. In terms of effective field goal percentage, the Knicks were only marginally better than the Pacers (52.5 vs. 51.4). The real difference was on the glass, where the Knicks managed nearly as many offensive rebounds (20) as the Pacers did on defense (24). The Knicks are an elite rebounding team, but that kind of disparity is simply unacceptable.

Ultimately, I’m expecting a much bigger focus on the glass for the Pacers in Game 6. If they can do that, they should be able to send this back to New York for a Game 7.

More Bets for Pacers vs. Knicks Game 6

Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3-pointers (+136)

The Pacers have done a much better job of running DiVincenzo off the 3-point line as this series has progressed. He’s taken just six 3-pointers in each of his past two games, and he’s knocked down just one of them. Divo has shot just 7-27 overall in those contests, so they’ve done a good job of neutralizing the Knicks’ No. 2 offensive threat.

Still, I’m a sucker for a +136 prop, and DiVincenzo is not afraid to let it fly. He knocked down at least five 3-pointers in each of the first three games in this series, and he’s had at least four triples 42 times this year (including playoffs). He’s going to play close to 48 minutes if this game stays competitive, and he averaged 4.3 3-pointers per 36 minutes during the regular season. His legs might be running out of steam after a grueling postseason, but with some extra time to rest, I’ll take my chances with the over in this spot.

T.J. McConnell Over 15.5 points + assists (-113)

If you squint hard enough, McConnell kind of looks a bit like Jalen Brunson. He’s a significantly watered-down version, but his game is pretty similar to the Knicks’ star point guard. When McConnell is in the game, he’s looking to blow by defenders and get into the lane to create midrange jumpers for himself or easy shots for his teammates.

We’ve seen McConnell have big success in this role during the postseason. He’s posted double-doubles in two of the first five contests, and he has another outing with 18 points. He’s done all that despite failing to top 22.8 minutes in this series.

This number feels a bit too low. Expect McConnell to continue to spearhead the Pacers’ attack when he’s on the floor, and he should continue to be successful.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-1 (-0.25 units)
  • Futures: 5-2 w/ one pending (+1.25)
  • Playoffs: 36-36 (-1.25 units)