Thursday’s NBA action saw the Celtics establish their dominance in the Eastern Conference Finals. After a shaky Game 1 where they were lucky to escape with a win, the Celtics put their foot on the gas in Game 2. Jaylen Brown erupted for 40 points a day after being snubbed from the All-NBA teams, and the Celtics cruised to a 16-point victory.

Making matters worse, Tyrese Haliburton exited Game 2 with a hamstring injury. It’s the same injury that cost him 10 games earlier this season, so it’s possible that the Pacers could be without him moving forward. The series will shift back to Indiana for Game 3, but if Haliburton is sidelined, it’s hard to imagine the Pacers making a stand on their home court.

Fortunately, the Western Conference Finals should provide us with some drama. Game 1 was a classic, with the Mavericks securing a hard-fought victory over the Timberwolves. Minnesota now needs to win Game 2 to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole before heading to Dallas.

Can the Timberwolves right the ship, or will the Mavericks grab control of this series? Let’s dive into my best bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 2.

Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 2

Timberwolves-Mavericks Under 207.5 points (-110; BetMGM)

After dropping Game 1, all the pressure is on the Timberwolves in Game 2. Falling into an 0-2 hole is extremely difficult to climb out of, especially when those two losses came at home. We saw the Nuggets fall into the same deficit in the last round, and the Timberwolves were able to pull off the upset in seven games.

The sharps and public believe that the Timberwolves can bounce back on Friday. They’ve received 62% of the spread bets and 70% of the dollars (per the Action Network), which has caused the spread to jump from Timberwolves -3.5 to -5.5.

The Timberwolves are my preferred side as well, but -5.5 is a little too rich for my blood. Instead, I’m going to take a look at under 207.5 points.

These two squads combined for 213 points in Game 1, but I’m not expecting the Mavericks to shoot the ball quite as well. Specifically, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 63 points on 24-49 shooting, which was their third-highest output of the postseason. The Timberwolves were the best defensive team in basketball during the regular season, so expect them to do a much better job in Game 2.

Head coach Chris Finch was very critical of his team’s effort in Game 1, so the Timberwolves should be extremely focused and motivated to start Game 2. Expect to see them flying around on defense, which should push this game under the total.

More Bets for Timberwolves-Mavericks Game 2

Kyrie Irving Under 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (+100)

Irving was as aggressive as we’ve seen all postseason in Game 1. He had 23 field goal attempts – tied for his second-most during the playoffs – and he was hyper-aggressive in the first quarter. He had nine shots in the first frame, knocking down six of them for 13 total points.

Irving is an extremely gifted scorer, so shutting him down is a lot easier said than done. That said, slowing him down is still easier than slowing down Doncic. The Timberwolves have a bunch of different bodies that they can throw at Irving – Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickiel Alexander-Walker – and expect them to all take the challenge seriously on Friday. Irving has gone under this total in seven of 13 playoff games this season, and he just narrowly went over in two others. This feels like an excellent sell-high opportunity.

Mike Conley Under 6.5 assists (-145)

Conley was pretty much a disaster in Game 1. He finished with just six points on 2-7 shooting with three assists, and he played just 30.8 minutes. The Timberwolves were still +1 with him on the floor, but it’s possible that he could continue to see reduced minutes if he doesn’t pick up his production.

Even if Conley sees a few additional minutes in Game 2, there’s no guarantee it will result in an uptick in assists. He’s gone under seven assists in five of his past six outings, including three straight. This number feels about one assist too high.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.475 units)
  • Futures: 6-2 w/ three pending (+1.75 units)
  • Playoffs: 43-40 (+0.6 units excluding futures)