Can the Timberwolves do the impossible? No team has ever overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the NBA playoffs, and that’s what Minnesota was staring at following Game 3. They still have a long way to go, but they did manage to check the first box by winning Game 4 in Dallas.

The Western Conference Finals now shift back to Minnesota for Game 5, where the Timberwolves are listed as small home favorites. If they can win this contest, it will set up an extremely high-stakes affair for Game 6 Saturday in Dallas. The Timberwolves would still have their backs against the wall, but the Mavericks would also be desperate to avoid going back to Minnesota for a Game 7.

Can the Timberwolves take care of business? Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Game 5.

Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 5

Timberwolves 1H -2.5 vs. Mavericks (-105; DraftKings)

It doesn’t shock me that the public is still siding with the Mavericks in this series. Each of the four games has been competitive, and Dallas has been the better team down the stretch. Their offense is simply better equipped for those situations with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving than the Timberwolves are with Anthony Edwards.

The number is up to -4.5 for Game 5, and 72% of the wagers are siding with Dallas (per the Action Network). However, the sharp money is siding with the home favorites.

The Timberwolves are my preferred side in this contest, but -4.5 is a little too rich for my blood. Instead, I’m going to go with the -2.5 for the first half.

Despite the Timberwolves being in a 1-3 hole, they’ve started these games better than the Mavericks. They’re 3-1 ATS in the first half in this series, which jives with what we’ve seen from the Mavericks all playoffs. They tend to start slow, but they’ve been absolutely elite in the second half throughout the playoffs (11-3-2 ATS). Overall, they’ve been outscored by -5.5 points in the first half of road playoff contests.

Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be the key. It’s no coincidence that the team’s win in Game 4 was Towns’ best offensive game of the series. If he can continue to score the ball efficiently, the Timberwolves are the better team.

That’s particularly true if Dereck Lively remains out of the lineup. Lively is currently questionable, but I’d be pretty surprised if he suited up in a game that the Mavericks can afford to lose. Saving him for a potential Game 6 in Dallas makes much more sense, and Lively has been one of the team’s best players in terms of Net Rating.

Ultimately, I’m not sure if the Timberwolves can cover the 4.5, and it’s possible that the Mavericks win outright if this game is competitive down the stretch. However, they should be able to grab the lead early. Playing the first-half spread feels like the safer option.

More Bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 5

Daniel Gafford Over 16.5 points + rebounds (-102)

Gafford came through with an over for us in Game 4, and I’m going right back to the well in Game 5. The sportsbooks are pricing Gafford as though they’re unsure about Lively’s status, which creates some potential value if Lively ends up sitting. Gafford has seen a significant uptick in playing time in the past two games, logging 28.8 and 31.3 minutes. He responded with 20 points + rebounds in Game 4, so this number is too low if Gafford is looking at a comparable workload.

I’m willing to roll the dice and bank on Lively being held out of the lineup once again.

Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points (-120)

This is another repeat prop from Game 4, but I can’t help myself. I feel like Adam Sandler’s character in Uncut Gems; there’s just no way Edwards isn’t scoring 28+ points in an elimination game. He wasn’t particularly efficient in Game 4 – especially at the free throw line – but he still managed to get to 29 points. He should be looking at another 25+ shots, and with that kind of volume, getting to 28 points shouldn’t be all that difficult.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

  • Tuesday: 2-0-1 (+1.05 units)
  • Futures: 9-2 w/ one pending (+2.21 units)
  • Playoffs: 48-43-1 (+1.545 units excluding futures)