The finish line is in sight. There are just three days and two slates of games until the end of the regular season. The entire league will be in action on Friday and Sunday, and there are some games with massive implications.
In the East, only the Celtics have secured their seed in the playoffs. The Knicks and Bucks have also secured a spot in the top six, but they could still finish in a few different locations. After that, the Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, 76ers, and Heat could all earn a guaranteed spot over the final two slates, but they could also fall into the play-in tournament. The 76ers and Heat are the longshots – Basketball Reference puts their top-six odds at 18.5% and 10.5%, respectively – but it could happen.
In the West, five teams have secured a guaranteed postseason spot: the Nuggets, Thunder, Timberwolves, Clippers, and Mavericks. The Pelicans picked up a big head-to-head win Thursday over the Kings, which puts them in the driver’s seat for the sixth seed. Only Phoenix has a chance to catch them in the standings, but a combination of two Pelicans’ wins or Suns’ losses will clinch the spot for New Orleans.
Can any of these squads punch their ticket on Friday? Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for tonight’s slate.
NBA Bets Today - Friday, April 12
Toronto Raptors +14.5 at Miami Heat (-105; BetMGM)
The Heat can technically can still win Southeast division. They would need two wins to end the season, while the Magic would have to lose their final two games. With Miami finishing the year with two matchups against the Raptors, they’re expected to hold up their end of the bargain.
That said, Toronto hasn’t been that bad since getting back R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They managed to keep things close vs. the Nets on Wednesday, and I think they can do it again vs. the Heat.
When Quickley and Barrett have shared the court in Toronto, the Raptors have posted a Net Rating of -3.2. While that’s nothing to get excited about, it’s significantly better than their off-court numbers. It’s no coincidence that the Raptors 15-game losing streak came with both players out of the lineup for the majority.
The Heat are the better team, but they are slightly banged up at the moment. Duncan Robinson has already been ruled out, while Terry Rozier is questionable. The Heat definitely have the motivational edge, but I don’t think they’re good enough to beat many teams by 15+ points.
Indiana Pacers +2.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers (-108; FanDuel)
The Cavaliers have a big problem at the moment. Donovan Mitchell has been in and out of the lineup recently while dealing with a left knee bone bruise, and when he’s been on the floor, he hasn’t looked like the same player. He averaged just 14.3 points while shooting 33.3% from the field over a six-game stretch before breaking out in his most recent contest.
Mitchell had 29 points on 9-17 shooting in his last game, but it came against the lowly Grizzlies. Memphis had most of their rotation in street clothes for that contest, so it’s hard to put too much stock in that performance.
Friday’s matchup vs. the Pacers will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and I’m skeptical that Mitchell’s knee is up for it. Indiana has played extremely well of late, ranking seventh in the league in Net Rating over that stretch (+7.4 points per 100 possessions). Cleveland has slumped to a 6-9 record over the same time, ranking merely 22nd in Net Rating (-4.4).
This number is down to 2.5 after opening at 3.0, and it wouldn’t shock me if the line continued to move towards the Pacers. I’m locking in the +2.5 now.
Denver Nuggets -12.5 at San Antonio Spurs (-105; BetMGM)
The Spurs gave the Nuggets everything they could handle in Denver last week, resulting in a five-point loss. Victor Wembanyama put his ridiculous skill set on display, finishing with 23 points, 15 rebounds, eight assists, and nine blocks. As hyped as Wembanyama was heading into the draft, he’s checked every box in his rookie season.
Wembanyama is expected to suit up in this contest, but the rest of the Spurs rotation is lacking. Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan are all sidelined, leaving them with an uninspiring cast of supporting characters.
The Nuggets are still fighting for the No. 1 seed, so expect them to take this game very seriously. All five of their starters are currently listed as probable, so they should be in the lineup for as long as needed to secure the W. When Denver has put their foot down this season, very few teams in basketball have been able to stand up to them. I’m not expecting the Spurs to be any different.
NBA Player Props Today - Friday, April 12
Jordan Poole Over 6.5 assists (-120; BetMGM)
The Wizards have been without starting point guard Tyus Jones for quite some time, which has allowed Poole to take on a larger role as a distributor. He’s taken full advantage, racking up an average of 8.4 assists over his past 10 games. He’s gone over 6.5 dimes in six of those contests, including four of his past six.
The Wizards have nothing to play for at this point in the year, but neither does their opponent. The Bulls are locked into the No. 9 seed in the East, and head coach Billy Donovan has said that the team will consider resting or limiting minutes for some of their starters down the stretch.
That makes this a really good matchup for Poole. Chicago was already No. 23 in opponent assists per game, and it’s possible they’ll be even worse than usual on Friday.
Jake LaRavia Under 17.5 points (-110; DraftKings)
The Grizzlies are desperate for production at the moment, which has given LaRavia a bigger opportunity in recent games. He took full advantage in his last contest, finishing with 32 points against the Cavaliers.
That said, that game stands out as a massive outlier. LaRavia shot the ball extremely well in that contest – 10-18 from the field, 8-11 from 3-point range – and he played 40 minutes. There’s no guarantee that either happens Friday vs. the Lakers.
Prior to Wednesday’s outburst, LaRavia had gone over 17.5 points in just three of 32 games. His role has definitely increased compared to what it was early in the year, but he’s still had plenty of games with a high minute count and minimal production. This feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high.
