10 days to go. That’s all that separates us and the end of the NBA regular season. After that, we dive straight into the play-in tournament and playoffs en route to crowning a champion.
The biggest development of late has been the Suns moving up to the No. 6 spot in the West.
Their hold on that spot is very precarious – they’re only ahead of the Pelicans via a tiebreaker and just 1.0 game above the Kings – but the Suns grabbing a guaranteed playoff spot should make the rest of the West nervous. They were one of my favorite teams to target in the futures market because they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. If they’re definitely in the playoffs, they’re going to be a tough out for whoever they’re up against.
There will be more jockeying for position over the final 1.5 weeks, with very little written in stone. With 12 games on the docket for Friday, it’s a very important day for multiple squads. Let’s dive into five of my NBA bets today for Friday’s slate.
NBA Bets Today - Friday, April 5
Timberwolves (+4.0) at Suns (-110; FanDuel)
This line goes to show just how much of a problem the Suns could be in the postseason. They’re facing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference on Friday, and they’re currently listed as four-point favorites. The Timberwolves are still without Karl-Anthony Towns, but that’s a lot of respect for a team that has underperformed for most of the year.
While I certainly respect the Suns’ talent, this line feels a bit disrespectful to the Timberwolves. The absence of Towns has been negligible as long as Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert have been available. Edwards has evolved into the team’s clear top option on offense, while Gobert anchors the top defense in the league. With those two players on the floor and Towns off, the team has still posted a Net Rating of +12.6 points per 100 possessions.
Meanwhile, the Suns’ recent stretch doesn’t change the fact that this team has underperformed for most of the year. They’re just 32-42-2 ATS – the fourth-worst mark in the league – and they’re 23-31-2 as a favorite. The Timberwolves have the second-best ATS mark as underdogs this season (12-7), so I like their chances of securing a cover.
Wizards (-2.5) vs. Trail Blazers (-110; Caesars)
Very few teams are trying harder to tank right now than the Trail Blazers. They’ve lost 12 of their past 15 games, and they have a Net Rating of -11.6 over that time frame. If not for the Raptors – who have lost 15 straight games – the Blazers futility would be more of a talking point.
The Wizards aren’t exactly a good team, but they’ve gone 6-9 over their past 15 games and have at least looked competent at times. They managed to keep things close vs. the Lakers in their last contest, and they’ll at least have Deni Avdija and Jordan Poole available vs. the Blazers. Portland is going to be extremely shorthanded, with most of their top guys on the sidelines. This number is up to 3.0 at some locations, so I’m locking in a 2.5 while I can.
Spurs (+11.5) at Pelicans (-112; FanDuel)
The Pelicans have a clear motivational edge in this contest. They need to win to get back into a guaranteed playoff spot, while the Spurs are playing for nothing but pride. If anything, it would behoove the Spurs to lose more games down the stretch: they’re currently tied with the Hornets for the third-worst record in the league.
Still, don’t tell that to the Spurs. They’ve been extremely competitive of late, fueled by the meteoric rise of Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs were cautious with their superstar rookie early in the year, but they’ve allowed him to spread his wings a bit down the stretch. He’s responded with some ridiculous performances, averaging 23.4 points, 11.9 boards, 5.1 assists, and 4.9 blocks over his past 20 contests. He finished one assist and two blocks shy of a quadruple-double in his last outing, which hasn’t been accomplished in nearly 30 years.
With Wembanyama leading the charge, the Spurs have just one loss of more than 11 points over their past 14 contests. They’ve played some tough teams over that stretch too, with games against the Nuggets, Mavericks, Suns, and Warriors. If they can keep things close against those squads, why can’t they do it against a slumping New Orleans team that is still without Brandon Ingram?
NBA Player Props Today - Friday, April 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. Over 4.5 assists (-113; FanDuel)
- Bet To: Over 4.5 (-140)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 4.5 in 70.96%
It’s been a bit of a lost season for the Grizzlies, who have had most of their best players sidelined for most of the year. That said, one positive has been the development of some of their young players. Guys like GG Jackson and Vince Williams have gotten the opportunity to grow and could be a big part of their rotation next year. Others like Pippen have had the chance to play minutes that they would’ve never gotten otherwise.
Pippen has yet to crack 4.5 assists since re-entering the starting lineup five games ago, but he should have the chance to play a bit more on Friday. The Grizzlies are going to be extremely thin, with Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, and Brandon Clarke all expected to sit after suiting up in their last game.
When Pippen has gotten the chance to play extended minutes, he’s been able to take advantage. He’s played more than 24 minutes in eight games with the Grizzlies, and he’s averaged just shy of 5.5 assists in those contests. He’s gone over 4.5 assists in five of them.
The matchup vs. the Pistons also couldn’t be much better. The Pistons are 27th in defensive efficiency for the year, so Memphis should have more opportunities than usual to score the ball.
Keon Ellis Over 10.5 points + rebounds (-110; DraftKings)
- Play To: Over 10.5 (-120)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 10.5 in 46.5%
I rarely go against the Paydirt simulations, but I’m making an exception with Ellis. He’s moved into the Kings’ starting lineup in place of the injured Kevin Huerter, and he’s seen a spike in playing time recently with Malik Monk missing the past three games. Ellis has averaged 11.2 points + rebounds in his 15 starts for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 14.6 over his past five games. Overall, he’s gone over 10.5 points + rebounds in four of his past five outings.
You can play Ellis a few different ways in this contest, but points + rebounds is my preferred target. He’s been a threat as a scorer and on the glass of late: In his last 10 games, he has three contests with at least seven boards and four where he’s cracked double-digit points. That gives us multiple ways to hit the over on Friday. The spot isn’t ideal as road underdogs on a back-to-back vs. the best team in basketball, but this number is simply too low.
