The finish line is in sight. Most teams have three games left on their schedule, and all 30 teams will be in action on Friday and Sunday. The entire league is off on Saturday, so Wednesday and Thursday are the final partial slates of the regular season. 16 teams will take the court on Wednesday, while 10 will play tomorrow.
We’ve had some jockeying for positions in both conferences of late. The Knicks have moved up to the No. 3 seed in the East, while the Cavaliers have dipped to No. 5. They’re just 3-7 over their past 10 games, which opened the door for New York and Orlando to jump them in the standings.
In the West, and two-game losing streak from the Suns has seen them slip from the final guaranteed playoff spot into the play-in tournament. The Pelicans have won two straight contests, so they’ve moved up to No. 6 in the West.
While we know which 20 teams will make the playoffs and play-in tournament, the jockeying for seeding will continue until the end of the year. That makes the stakes on Wednesday very high for a few matchups.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite betting options for Wednesday’s slate.
NBA Bets Today - Wednesday, April 10
Nuggets (-5.5) vs. Timberwolves (-115; BetMGM)
One of the most important matchups on Wednesday will take place at the top of the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets and Timberwolves are currently deadlocked at 55-24, giving both squads a 1.0-game lead over the Thunder. Whoever wins Wednesday’s head-to-head matchup will enter the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed.
The Nuggets will have the benefit of homecourt advantage in this contest, which is bad news for Minnesota. Denver hasn’t been quite as dominant at home as they were last year, but they’re still 51-39-2 ATS at home since the start of 2022.
The Timberwolves are also still operating at less than full strength. Karl-Anthony Towns has been cleared for full-contact, five-on-five basketball activities, but he’s unlikely to return on Wednesday. The Timberwolves haven’t necessarily needed KAT – they’re 12-5 since he went down with an injury – but being at less than 100% against the defending champs is not a good formula for success.
In a game that should have a playoff-like feel, expect the team with the championship pedigree to show up. I’ll lay the points with the Nuggets.
Raptors (+10.0) at Nets (-108; DraftKings)
The Raptors have been futile over the second half of the year. They had a 13-game losing streak that wasn’t snapped until last week, and they’re dead last in Net Rating since the All-Star break.
That said, most of their recent losses have come with the team at far less than full strength. It’s not a coincidence that they snapped their losing streak when R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley were both back in the lineup and playing their usual complement of minutes. Neither of those players is an All-Star, but they’re significantly better than the guys that Toronto was rolling out for most of March.
The Nets have been slightly better than the Raptors over the second half of the year, but I don’t think they deserve to be laying 10 points against anyone. They’re merely 22nd in Net Rating since the All-Star break, and they’re coming off a 30-point home loss to the Kings in their last outing.
Cavaliers (-18.5) vs. Grizzlies (-108; DraftKings)
I’m not sure I’ve ever laid 18.5 points in a basketball game, and I might not ever do it again. That said, how can you not bet against the Grizzlies given the state of their current roster.
The Grizzlies have been playing shorthanded for most of the year, but things have become dire recently. They’ve already ruled out eight players vs. the Cavaliers – arguably the eight best players on their roster – and they could be without even more bodies on the second leg of a back-to-back. Only eight players saw the court on Tuesday, and three of them – Timmy Allen, Zavier Simpson, and Jack White – just recently signed with the team. There’s a good chance that if you’re in shape and show up at the game in Memphis, the Grizzlies might ask you to sit on the end of their bench.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are still fighting for a guaranteed playoff spot in the East. They’re just 1.5 games above the 76ers in the standings, who are currently seventh in the conference. If Cleveland doesn’t stomp this Grizzlies squad, they don’t deserve to get a guaranteed playoff spot.
NBA Player Props Today - Wednesday, April 10
Tyler Herro Under 25.5 points + assists (-110; BetMGM)
- Play To: Under 25.5 (-120)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 25.5 in 63.16%
The Heat are coming off a grueling double overtime win on Tuesday, and they’ll have to play on the second leg of a back-to-back vs. the scorching hot Mavericks. Dallas has rattled off 15 wins in their past 17 games, so there’s a chance that they can pull away from an exhausted Heat squad.
Even if this game does stay competitive, Herro’s offensive production could suffer. He just recently returned to the lineup following an extended absence, and he logged 47.7 minutes on Tuesday. That’s tough for any player to bounce back from, but it’s brutal for a jump shooter who has barely played in recent months.
Herro has averaged 25.3 points + assists per game for the year, and given the circumstances, I think it’s very reasonable for him to go under his average in this spot.
Immanuel Quickley Under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115; PointsBet)
- Play To: Under 32.5 (-125)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 33.5 in 80.5%
Even though I like the Raptors to cover on Wednesday, this seems like a really big number for Quickley. He’s coming off back-to-back big performances before sitting out the team’s last contest, which has caused this number to become inflated: He’s averaged just 27.5 PRA since joining the Raptors, and he’s gone under 33.5 in 25 of 36 contests. The Paydirt simulations are bearish on his outlook vs. the Nets, so I’m willing to hop on board.
