We saw our biggest upset of the first round on Thursday, with the depleted Miami Heat securing a win against the Celtics in Boston. They took the floor as nearly 15-point underdogs, but that didn’t stop them from securing a 10-point win.

We have another three games to choose from on Thursday, and they’ll all represent a change in the series. After the Knicks, Cavaliers, and Nuggets all held serve at home, they’ll now change venues for Game 3.

Can the 76ers, Magic, or Lakers avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole?

Let’s dive into my NBA best bets.

NBA Bets Today – Top Picks for Thursday's NBA Playoff Games

Cavaliers vs. Magic Under 201.5 points (-110; BetMGM)

This is an extremely low total, but the first two games of this series haven’t come close to cracking 200 points. The two squads combined for just 180 points in Game 1, and they followed that up with just 182 points in Game 2.

Both of these squads are known for their defenses, and they’ve both shined on that end in this series. The Cavaliers rank first in defensive efficiency during the postseason (88.5), while the Magic aren’t that far behind in fourth (101.0).

Outside of Paolo Banchero, I’m not sure where the scoring is going to come from for the Magic. Franz Wagner is second on the team in field goal attempts during the postseason, but he’s shot a paltry 37.5%. Jalen Suggs has been even worse (28.6%), while the team is collectively 23.6% from 3-point range.

Can they improve a bit now that the series is back in Orlando? Sure, but it’s far from a guarantee. Even if the Magic do heat up a bit at home, there’s a chance that the Cavaliers’ role players shoot a bit worse than they did in Cleveland.

Unders have been the story of the postseason so far, and I like our chances for another one in Game 3.

Nuggets ML at Lakers (-105; BetMGM)

The Lakers seem like the preferred side for the sharps in this matchup, and I can see where they’re coming from.

The underdog typically gives their best effort when returning home after an 0-2 start, and the Lakers had the Nuggets on the ropes in Game 2. They probably deserved to win that contest, and they held a lead entering the fourth quarter of Game 1 as well.

That said, this isn’t exactly new for Lakers-Nuggets.

We saw a very similar formula in this series last year, with the Lakers hanging tough in four straight games and ultimately losing them all. The Nuggets have the best player in the world at the moment in Nikola Jokic, so it’s very tough to put them away.

I’m really not sure the Lakers can play much better than they did in Game 2. Anthony Davis shot 14-19 from the field. D’Angelo Russell knocked down seven 3-pointers. LeBron James had a near triple-double with 26 points, 12 dimes, and eight boards.

If they couldn’t win that game, what can they possibly do differently to get across the finish line in Game 3?

The Nuggets have now beaten the Lakers in 10 straight games, but they’re just -105 to win in Los Angeles? Sign me up.

More Bets for Thursday's NBA Playoff Games

Knicks +5.5 at 76ers (-105)

After the debacle in Game 2, I expect the 76ers to get a very friendly home whistle in Game 3.

Joel Embiid might get to the free throw line 20 times, and they’re very live to win the game. However, the number on this game has shot up from -1.5 to -5.5, and that feels like a mistake. The Knicks have won the first two games in this series despite getting virtually nothing from Jalen Brunson.

They’re dominating Philly on the offensive boards, and with Embiid at less than 100%, that should continue. This game should be close one way or another.

Cole Anthony Over 5.5 points (+108)

One way for the Magic to try to find a bit more offense is by leaning a bit heavier on Anthony. He’s been awful to start the series, shooting 0-11 from the field, but he averaged 11.6 points per game off the bench during the regular season.

If Anthony sees some positive regression with the series back in Orlando, he should be able to get to six points.

Rui Hachimura Over 4.5 rebounds (+106)

The Lakers were hopeful that Jarred Vanderbilt would be able to return to the lineup in Game 3, but he and Christian Wood will remain out. That leaves Hachimura to soak up plenty of minutes.

He’s coming off 38 minutes in Game 2, and Rui has averaged 5.8 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. He had five boards in his last outing, so I like this prop at anything better than even money.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.05 units)
  • Playoffs: 7-7 (-0.29 units)