It was another day of home team dominance on Monday. The home teams went 3-0, bringing them to a perfect 11-0 for the postseason. The Knicks, Nuggets, and Cavaliers all extended their series leads to 2-0 before taking things on the road.
That said, the road squads at least showed a little fight.
The 76ers probably should’ve beaten the Knicks, but a wild sequence at the end of the game allowed the Knicks to erase a five-point deficit in a matter of seconds.
The Lakers also had the defending champs on the ropes for most of the game, but Jamal Murray managed to steal one at the buzzer.
After an elite night of games on Monday, what does Tuesday have in store?
We have another three games to choose from, and all three are expected to be competitive. The largest spread in the three games is just 3.5 points, so it should be another great night.
Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets on Tuesday’s slate.
NBA Bets for 4/23 – Top Picks for Tuesday's NBA Playoff Games
Suns (+3.5) at Timberwolves (-115; BetMGM)
I might be a huge sucker for continuing to trust this Suns team. They’ve given me virtually no reason to do so. They were one of the worst ATS teams in basketball during the regular season (35-45-2), and they followed that up with an awful performance in Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves.
The biggest weakness for the Suns in Game 1 was on the glass. Minnesota outrebounded them 52 to 28, which is an absurd differential. The Timberwolves posted a 34.2% offensive rebound rate, with Rudy Gobert gobbling up six by himself. That’s twice as many as the entire Suns’ team had in Game 1.
That said, Phoenix was actually better on the boards than Minnesota was during the regular season. They were seventh in team rebound rate, so there’s no reason that should happen again. We saw a similar rebounding differential between the Knicks and 76ers in Game 1, but Philly fought back to keep things even on the glass in Game 2. I’m expecting a similar result here.
As long as they can limit the Timberwolves to one possession, I trust Phoenix to make more shots in the long run. They have two of the best scorers in basketball in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and the rest of their rotation isn’t bad either. Overall, I’m expecting a much more competitive contest on Tuesday.
Bucks (-1.0) vs. Pacers (-110; Caesars)
The Bucks gave NBA fans the Geno Smith treatment in Game 1 – they may have been written off without Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Damian Lillard and company did not write back. Dame had a monster first half, scoring 35 points on 11-19 shooting, while Khris Middleton carried them across the finish line.
The fact that Lillard didn’t score a single point after halftime is a bit concerning, but the team didn’t need him to do much at that point. He attempted just five shots, so expect him to be far more aggressive if the outcome is still in the balance on Tuesday.
Ultimately, this series comes down to experience. The Bucks have a bunch of players who have been through wars, while the Pacers are really getting their first taste of playoff experience. Outside of Pascal Siakam, none of their key contributors are used to playing at this point in the year. It doesn’t surprise me that Siakam was their clear best player in Game 1 of this series.
The public largely expects the Pacers to take care of business on Tuesday, but the sharps are backing the experience of Milwaukee. They’ve received 79% of the dollars on less than 50% of the bets (per the Action Network), so the bigger bets are siding with Milwaukee. I’m happy to tag along.
More NBA Bets for Tuesday's Playoff Games
Mavericks-Clippers Over 216.5 (-105)
These two squads played pretty slow in Game 1, but they still managed to score 216 points. They did that despite the Mavericks scoring just eight points in the second quarter and 30 points in the first half. Dallas had one of the best offenses in basketball with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both on the floor during the regular season, so I’m not expecting a repeat performance.
Amir Coffey Under 8.5 points (-136)
Coffey is a token starter for the Clippers, but he’s simply not going to play that much in games that aren’t blowouts. He saw 25 minutes in Game 1, and he might not even see that much in Game 2.
Coffey also isn’t a huge part of the team’s offense, posting just a 12.5% usage rate during the regular season. That’s not a great combination for scoring, and the Paydirt DFS simulations put Coffey under 8.5 points at a 79.16% clip.
Damian Lillard Over 29.5 points (-108)
Do I expect Lillard to have a 35-point half again on Tuesday? No. But can he get over 29.5 for the game? Absolutely.
Without Giannis, Lillard is going to have to do all the heavy lifting for Milwaukee in this series. He’s increased his usage rate to 37.1% in Game 1, and it would’ve been even higher if the game didn’t turn into a blowout. Lillard only had three games with a usage rate above 36.5% and at least 30 minutes of playing time during the regular season, and he cruised past 30 points in each of them. The Pacers aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, so this line feels a few points too low.
2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record
- Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.41 units)
- Playoffs: 3-2 (+0.41 units)
