We’ve officially made it to the finale of the NBA Cup. It remains to be seen if this is something that will truly catch on with the fans, but it has resulted in some entertaining basketball so far. We should have a good one in store for the championship, with the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder have been arguably the best team in basketball this season. They’ve cruised out to a 20-5 record while ranking first in the league in Net Rating. They have an extremely deep and young squad led by an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Bucks haven’t had the same success this season, but they’ve turned things around after a dreadful start. They’ve rattled off 12 wins in their past 15 games, pushing them back to sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.

Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA Cup Final

Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Tuesday's championship game, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:

  • NBA player projections - In addition to baseline stat projections, our NBA player projections include minutes, a key data point when evaluating player props.
     
  • NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.0) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-106; FanDuel)

  • Bet to: Thunder -5.0 (-115)

These are two solid squads, but the Bucks haven’t really been in OKC’s weight class. Even if we look only at their recent 15-game streak, they’re still just eighth in Net Rating over that time frame (+5.7). The Thunder have posted a +11.9 mark over the same time frame, which is the top mark in the league.

It’s also worth noting that the Bucks have feasted on the easiest part of their schedule. Of their 12 recent wins, only four have come against teams with winning records (Rockets, Heat, Hawks, and Magic). Even those wins aren’t as impressive as they seem. They only beat the Rockets by a single point, while the Heat and Hawks are barely over .500. The Magic have a great record, but they’re playing without their two best players at the moment.

The Thunder are a completely different beast. They’re not just winning; they’re winning by margin. They’ve dispatched the Rockets and Mavericks in their past two NBA Cup contests, and they’ve won both by at least 15 points. They’re 16-9 against the spread this season—the fourth-best mark in the league—while the Bucks are merely 10-14-1.

Maybe Milwaukee can reestablish themselves as an elite team before the playoffs, but they’re definitely not there yet. I’m going to need to see more before I back them against a team like the Thunder.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets For NBA Cup Final

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 2.5 3-pointers (-150; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Under 2.5 (-165)

SGA is having another phenomenal season. He’s on pace to average more than 30 points for the third consecutive season, and he’s currently No. 2 in the MVP odds. However, if he has a weakness in his game, it’s his 3-point shooting. He’s averaging just 2.1 3-pointers per game for the year, and he’s been below 2.5 in 16 of his 25 games. Ultimately, -150 feels a bit too generous for Gilgeous-Alexander vs. the Bucks, who have allowed the fourth-fewest made 3-pointers over their past three games.

Khris Middleton Over 3.5 rebounds (+120; BetMGM)

  • Play To: Over 3.5 (+100)

If the Bucks are going to make a leap, they’re going to need to get more from Middleton. He’s just starting to get eased back into the rotation, averaging just 21.3 minutes through his first four contests. However, it’s possible that he picks up a few additional minutes in the championship. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll have a chance to grab four boards vs. the Thunder. They’re merely 29th in team rebound rate, and they’re also played at an above-average pace. Add it all up, and no one has allowed more than their average of 57.5 rebounds per game.

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 points (-115; FanDuel)

  • Play To: Over 11.5 (-125)

Hartenstein has played well for the Thunder since entering their rotation 10 games ago. He’s started their past nine outings, and he’s averaged 12.5 points per game overall. However, that doesn’t tell the full story. He’s played reduced minutes in two blowouts, so he’s scored at least 12 points in six of his other eight outings. As long as he can see his usual allotment of playing time on Tuesday, this number is simply too low.

NBA Bets for December 17th

To recap my NBA card for Tuesday, see below:

  • Thunder -5.0 vs. Bucks (-106; FanDuel) - Risk 1.06u
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 2.5 3-pointers (-150; BetMGM) - Risk 1.5u
  • Khris Middleton Over 3.5 rebounds (+120; BetMGM) - Risk 1.0u
  • Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 points (-115; FanDuel) - Risk 1.15u

Total: Risk 4.71 units to win 4.2.