NBA Schedule Release Instant Reactions: The West is a Gauntlet
We’re approximately halfway through August, which means there’s only one thing on everyone’s minds – the NBA schedule release! What, you thought I was going to say football?
Football may be the main talking point at the moment, but the NBA has truly become a year-round sport. Between free agency, the draft, and the various team schedule release videos, there’s enough content to keep fans hooked for nearly the full 12 months.
The NBA schedule doesn’t have quite as big of an impact on betting as it does in the NFL. That’s the difference between playing a 17-game schedule and an 82-game schedule. Each team plays their four division opponents four times each (16 total games), six non-division conference opponents four times each (24 total games), the other four non-division conference opponents three times each (12 total games), and the 15 non-conference opponents twice (30 total games).
The in-season tournament means that only 80 of the 82 games for each team are currently known, but the schedules are ultimately pretty similar for each team in each conference.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know about the 2024-25 NBA schedule.
The Western Conference is Loaded
The Western Conference has been “better” than the Eastern Conference for quite some time. It’s a big reason why LeBron James was able to make it to the NBA Finals for nine consecutive seasons with the Cavaliers and Heat.
But in 2024-25? The gap feels particularly wide.
In terms of schedule difficulty, nearly every Western Conference team is going to have to run the gauntlet. 11 of the 15 teams have a Vegas win total of at least 41.5, and that doesn’t even include the Spurs. San Antonio could certainly make a jump in Victor Wembanyama’s second year after adding Chris Paul in the offseason.
The difference isn’t particularly felt at the top of the conference. The Celtics have the top preseason win total in basketball at a whopping 57.5, and six of the top 10 teams hail from the East.
Rather, the difference is at the bottom. The Eastern Conference has a host of also-rans that should allow the top teams to pile up wins. Five Eastern Conference squads have a win total of 31.5 or lower: the Nets (19.5), Wizards (22.5), Pistons (24.5), Hornets (29.5), and Raptors (31.5). Only the Blazers are in that group in the West, though the Jazz will likely join them (their odds are off the board with Lauri Markkanen’s status in flux).
As a result, the strength of schedule ratings features a major imbalance. Out of the 12 teams with the “hardest” schedules” in 2024-25, 11 play in the West. Nearly every conference matchup is going to be a battle, and some good teams are not going to make the playoffs.
It’s going to result in some brutal stretches. The Suns have a 10-game stretch where they face 10 teams with a win total of at least 43.5. Seven of those contests will come against a team with a preseason win total of at least 50.5.
The Warriors have a ridiculous 17-game stretch where they will face one team with a preseason win total of less than 43.5. That game comes against the Clippers, who just barely fail to make the cut and still feature Kawhi Leonard.
For betting purposes, it makes sense to look at some mid-table teams in the West and consider fading them to make the postseason.
The “Group of Death”
The Emirates NBA Cup – also known as the in-season tournament – will enter its second season in 2024-25. The Lakers took home the inaugural edition, the lone bright spot in an otherwise dark season.
It remains to be seen if the NBA Cup has any staying power, but the league continues to search for ways to make the regular season feel more exciting and less like a slog.
Personally, I’ll have my eye on Group C this season. With the strength of the West, there was always going to be one group that ended up being the “Group of Death.” Group C gets that distinction, with the Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans, Warriors, and Grizzlies all vying for the automatic qualifying spot.
It’s a group where all five teams have at least some chance of reaching the knockout rounds. The Nuggets are undoubtedly the favorites, but there is no team to beat up on. All five squads could finish 3-2 or 2-3, so it could set up some exciting contests on the final day of group play.
Christmas Day Games
Christmas Day is the biggest day for the NBA regular season, at least until the NFL selfishly decided they wanted to take it over. Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter what kind of marquee games the NBA schedules; more Americans would still choose to watch the Titans square off with the Patriots. The NFL stays king.
Still, basketball fans will be treated to five contests on Christmas:
- San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks – Noon ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks – 2:30 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 5 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors – 8 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 p.m. ET
The first matchup will feature Victor Wembanyama making his Christmas debut. Wembanyama had a huge showing in his last game vs. the Knicks – 40 points, 20 rebounds, seven assists, two steals, and one block – so it will be exciting to see if he can duplicate it in the Garden.
The second contest features a rematch of the Western Conference Finals between two of the game’s brightest young stars: Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic.
Doncic went absolutely bananas on Christmas in 2023, racking up 50 points, 15 assists, six boards, four steals, and three blocks in a win over the Suns. He’s appointment viewing anytime he’s on a big stage.
The third game will pit arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference against each other, with the Celtics hosting the 76ers. Will adding Paul George shift the balance of power towards Philly?
The penultimate contest features the best two players of the modern generation: LeBron and Steph Curry. Heading into Year 22, this could be the last time we get to see King James on Christmas day. He’s the all-time leader in Christmas Day games and points scored while ranking No. 2 in assists and No. 6 in rebounds.
The nightcap will feature Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets taking on Kevin Durant’s Suns. The Suns were one of the bigger disappointments in 2023-24, but they still have as much raw talent as anyone. A marquee matchup vs. the unquestioned best player in the league will give them the opportunity to make a statement.
Overall, it’s a fantastic mix of the best players, best teams, and best storylines in the league. It truly embodies the spirit of Christmas: parking yourself on the couch and doing your best to avoid the rest of your family.