Not long ago, the NFC South was seen as one of the best divisions in the NFL. Entering the 2023 season, this is the worst division. All four teams will start the season with a new quarterback and many question marks.
Let's meet the teams and find some bets to target.
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New Orleans Saints
- +120 to win NFC South
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (+105)
- Key Additions: Derek Carr (QB), Jamaal Williams (RB), Lonnie Johnson (S)
- Key Departures: Shy Tuttle (DT), David Onyemata (DT), Marquez Callaway (WR)
This will be a new-look New Orleans Saints team as they traded for former Pro-Bowl QB Derek Carr in the offseason. Carr’s addition makes the Saints the best offense in the division entering the season. New Orleans still has some dynamic playmakers on the offensive side of the football, most notably Alvin Kamara.
The Saint's defense is the strong point of their team, as New Orleans ranked fifth in the NFL a season ago in yards allowed per game and ranked ninth in scoring defense. With the most-balanced squad in the division, there’s little doubt the team can come out on top.
Pick: New Orleans to win NFC South (+120)
I know many people have given up on Derek Carr, but this is the perfect fit for him.
During Carr's time in Las Vegas, he led some of football's most effective offenses. The reason most of his teams did not have success was due to their poor defense. He now plays on a team with one of the best defenses in all of football, putting him in favorable situations.
Jun 13, 2023; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) during passing drills during minicamp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Since 2019, Carr's offenses have ranked top twelve in the NFL in yards per game every season. And, lastly, when it comes to stepping up in clutch moments, Carr has answered the call throughout his career. Only Matthew Stafford has more fourth-quarter comebacks among active QBs. With playmakers on both sides of the ball, Carr has the best chance in the division to make it into the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons
- +215 to win NFC South
- Implied Wins: 8.5 (-120)
- Key Additions: Calais Campbell (DE), Jessie Bates III (S), Jonnu Smith (TE), David Onyemta (DT), Bjian Robinson (RB)
- Key Departures: Marcus Mariota (QB) and Chuma Edoga (DE)
Like the rest of the division, there will be a new man under center for Arthur Smith and the Falcons this season. Second-year signal caller and former Cincinnati standout Desmond Ridder will get the opportunity to be the guy in A town.
Jun 14, 2023; Flowery Branch, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs during a drill during minicamp at IBM Performance Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Ridder put up some serious numbers at the collegiate level, and the Falcons liked what they saw from Ridder when he stepped in last year. He’ll have the opportunity to work with some of the best weapons with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bjian Robinson at Ridder’s disposal. Each provides tough matchups for opposing defenses, and it will be interesting to see how Ridder performs with so much talent around him.
Atlanta ended the 2022 season with a record of 7-10 and will look to improve on that this season.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons under 8.5 wins (+100)
I am not a believer in this Falcons team for multiple reasons.
First, Desmond Ridder will take some time to develop and make rookie-like mistakes in his first full season under center. Secondly, this is not a good Atlanta defense. Improved, but still needs work. The Falcons ranked 27th in yards allowed per game a season ago and ranked 23rd in points allowed per game. Their offense must be better to compensate for their poor defensive play, making them a solid bet to miss their win total of 8.5.
One last note is that the Falcons will be a fun team to watch due to their young talent. And from a fantasy football standpoint, this could be a good team to stack up on.
Carolina Panthers
- +400 to win NFC South
- Implied Wins: 7.5 (-120)
- Key Additions: Bryce Young (QB), Adam Thielen (WR), Miles Sanders (RB), DJ Chark Jr (WR), Hayden Hurst (TE), Shy Tuttle (DT), Von Bell (S)
- Key Departures: DJ Moore (WR), D’Onta Foreman (RB), Sam Darnold (QB)
Carolina made a trade with the Bears, giving the Panthers the first-overall pick. As a result, they got their guy in former Alabama star Bryce Young.
Young is projected to be the top quarterback in the draft, and the Carolina faithful are hopeful that Young is the future of this franchise. They showed signs of life down to the season's final weeks but still had to make massive changes to their personnel and staff to remain competitive in the NFC South.
Jun 14, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich watches quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the Carolina Panthers minicamp. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Frank Reich will take over the Panthers franchise after getting fired by the Indianapolis Colts a season ago. Reich has enjoyed success in this league and is considered one of the best offensive minds in all of football. It will be fun to see him get to work with Bryce Young, and the excitement surrounding the team is more than just vibes.
Pick: Carolina Panthers Over 7.5 wins (-120)
I am high on this Panthers team. Bryce Young may not start Week 1, as the team did bring in veteran Andy Dalton. But when Young does take over, he will thrive in Frank Reich's offense.
Plus, Carolina went out in free agency and added some solid position players. I love what they did at the WR position adding veterans Adam Thielen and DJ Chark Jr.. Carolina showed me they had a lot of fight on this roster a season ago. If the Panthers could win seven games last year, Bryce Young and the rest of their additions are worth another win or more.
Lastly, the Panthers’ defense finished in the middle of the pack last year but has the potential to be a top-twelve defense. So, this is an eight-win team between their offense and defense if things break right.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- +800 to win NFC South
- Implied Wins: 6.5 (+120)
- Key Additions: Chase Edmonds (RB), Baker Mayfield (QB), Greg Gaines (DL)
- Key Departures: Tom Brady (QB), Keanu Neal (S), Sean Murphy-Bunting (CB), Shaq Mason (G), Donovan Smith (LT), Mike Edwards (S)
After Tom Brady retired, this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team is slated to be the worst team in the South. However, Brady’s departure means that the QB spot is open, and the current battle is between former number-one overall pick Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.
Jan 8, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield (17) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Head coach Todd Bowles will have a tough decision on his hands. And with uncertainty at their most-important position, the ‘23 outlook for the Bucs doesn’t look great.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins (-140)
I think Tampa Bay could be the worst team in the league this season.
Whether the Bucs start Trask or Mayfield, they will struggle to put up points and keep pace in games. Tampa’s strong suit should be their good defense last season, but I think their offensive issues will be far too much for them to overcome this season.
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