Welcome to Week 6 of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Geoff Ulrich and I dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL.
First off, I just want to say: This is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week, and trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!).
If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also be sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like DK Metcalf being this close to a monster performance:
Ulrich’s Bad Beat No.1: The Fall of the Titans
It took Zeus and his siblings 10 years to defeat the Titans and imprison them in Tartarus, but it only took Joe Flacco and the Colts about a quarter and a half to beat the NFL version of the Titans last Sunday.
Tennessee had control of this game early in the second half after Tony Pollard (the lone bright spot on this team) ripped off a 23-yard run on third and 19 that put Tennessee up by a TD. Given how well the Titans' defense had played, it seemed like that may have been enough to get a W over a weakened Colts squad. Having bet the Titans -2.5 this week (after the Colts injury report came out) I was certainly counting on the Titans prevailing at this point (even though I should have known better after they already burned me deep in Week 1).
Much like the Titans of lore (who were owned by Zeus and Co.), these Titans also underestimated their competition by reverting to a conservative game plan the rest of the way. They scored zero points over the final 25 minutes against a Colts defense that ranked 22nd in EPA per play coming into Week 6.
Instead of throwing the ball more to DeAndre Hopkins, who had three catches for 38 yards on three targets in the first half, they ran the ball three times and targeted Cavin Ridley (8 targets, 0 catches) two more times on their next two possessions. Both of which resulted in punts.
After Joe Flacco finally put the Colts ahead 20-17 with a strike to Michael Pittman, Tennessee continued their bizarre decision by not allowing Will Levis to go for it from their 25-yard line on fourth and 7 with just 2:25 remaining.
I get that Levis has done some boneheaded stuff this season, but as a head coach if you’re not going to let your QB try and win the game in a key moment, it’s time to move on and find a new QB — or a new profession.
Tennessee outgained the Colts 146 yards to 80 on the ground and also held Indianapolis to under 200 yards passing. So while it wasn’t an entirely lopsided game, the Titans did enough to win, and should have — if not for better playcalling.
You can blame a couple of the Titans' other losses on bad QB play, but this one was all about the coaches, who need to be better in these late-game spots and find a QB they trust to make plays late in the game.
LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 1: Chase Brown Breaks Big Blue
The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Giants and Bengals did not go how I expected. I thought this would be a game with plenty of offense on both sides. The Bengals have shown the ability to stop absolutely no one this season, while their offense remains one of the best in football.
Instead, these two teams engaged in a rock fight. The only score in the first half came on a Joe Burrow 47-yard touchdown run. That’s right. Burrow — who had never before rushed for more than 47 yards in a game — took one in from near midfield:
I certainly didn’t have that on my bingo card, but the Giants stayed within striking distance. They scored a touchdown of their own to tie the game at 7 in the third quarter, and they were down three points late into the fourth quarter.
With that in mind, Giants +3.5 was looking pretty good.
The Giants had possession with approximately three minutes left and got the ball into Cincinnati territory. They were facing a fourth-and-2 from the Bengals’ 36-yard line, and instead of opting for the FG and potential tie, the team was playing for the win. They went for it, but Daniel Jones’ pass to Darius Slayton was ultimately broken up. The Bengals got the ball back, and the Giants had just two timeouts and the two-minute warning to work with. With plenty of field in front of them, the cover seemed in decent shape.
The Giants were forced to use their second timeout after a Chase Brown run on second-and-12, leaving 2:12 on the clock. The Bengals needed 12 yards for a first down, or the Giants would get the ball back. Instead, Burrow completed a 29-yard pass to Andrei Iosivas, who ultimately went out of bounds.
While that wasn’t ideal, it wasn’t a killer, either. All the Bengals needed was one more first down to ice the game. They got seven yards on first down, so they were in good shape.
Unfortunately, Brown had other ideas. Instead of picking up the first down and going down, he broke one for 30 yards and a score. It pushed the Bengals’ lead to 10 and ultimately secured the cover for Cincinnati.
The Giants deserved the cover here, and I won’t hear anything else about it. They outgained Cincinnati and were even in the turnover margin. Some bad luck and an abysmal decision from Jones were the difference.
Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 2: Broncos Blow a Backdoor Push
Denver was down 23-0 at one point in this game, and as someone who liked and bet the Broncos +3.0 this week, I’m not sure I even deserved to be bailed out in this spot. Denver’s offense was particularly bad early on, spotting the Chargers great field position on numerous occasions and allowing them to move the ball through the air.
However, as the game went on, Denver did fight back to the point where the game was 23-13 with 2:26 left. Denver had a tall task to push this to OT or get the win, but the backdoor push was firmly in play. The final drive really could not have started better, as the Broncos got the ball into Chargers territory on five plays. Then, with 1:11 left on the clock, Bo Nix reeled off a 21-yard run to the Chargers 22-yard line.
With a minute left on the clock — and with how well the Broncos had moved the ball against the Chargers' defense in the second half — you had to figure they would take their shot here at the end zone and get the hard part of the two-score, 10-point deficit (TD and FG) out of the way.
After all, even if you get the ball back on an onside kick with only about 40 seconds remaining, you’d almost need a hail mary to tie the game. Given that the Broncos were also out of timeouts, your win percentage would increase by a decent chunk if you got the TD first.
Honestly, watching this play out, my brain wasn’t even really considering the FG unit would come on after the Nix run because taking three (or more) shots at the end zone just made so much more sense. So of course, I was horrified when Sean Payton sent on Will Lutz to kick a 40-yard FG, which he made (congrats).
Thirty seconds later, the Broncos failed to recover the onside kick and the game was over. In the end, I got what I deserved, as the Chargers were clearly on the right side. But with how the game played out, we were pretty unlucky to not even sniff the push on that final drive.
I’m fine taking my lumps on this one but really wish we could have seen how three Nix end-zone attempts would have played out. I guess next time in this situation I’ll lower my expectations and assume Sean Payton isn’t interested in padding his lifetime ATS record.
LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 2: Failly Special
The Eagles managed to survive against the Browns in Week 6, but they did it in extremely unimpressive fashion. They won by just 4 points despite getting close to -10.0 during the week.
That said, the Eagles probably deserved to cover in this spot. I’m not sure if I’d classify it as a “bad beat,” but they pretty thoroughly dominated Cleveland. They outgained the Browns by 128 yards and limited them to just 144 passing yards. The Browns also didn’t put the ball in the end zone once on offense, settling for just three field goals.
The big swing came on special teams. The Eagles were lining up to kick a 57-yard FG at the end of the first half to potentially take a 10-point lead. Instead, Myles Garrett blocked the kick, and Rodney McLeod took it back 50 yards for a touchdown:
What could’ve been a double-digit lead became a tie game. That’s a 10-point swing on one play.
Also — I thought jumping over the center was now an illegal move on kicks, but this is the second straight week where someone has blocked a FG by doing exactly that. I guess as long as you don’t make contact with the center it’s OK by the letter of the law, but I don’t understand why everyone isn’t doing that. It seems unstoppable as long as you time it properly.
Regardless, the Browns still suffered their fifth loss in six games, and they appear to be a sinking ship. Deshaun Watson is stuck on the worst contract in the NFL, so Cleveland is once again in one of the most unenviable situations in the league. As much as some things change, some things stay the same.
