Welcome to Week 7 of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Geoff Ulrich and I dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

First off, I just want to say: This is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week, and trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!).

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also be sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like Xavier Worthy being overthrown on a potential 71-yard touchdown:

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 1: Jayden Daniels — Gone In a Flash

Ugh, this is one. I really didn’t want to revisit, but for the sake of “content” I will give you a full recap on my Jayden Daniels’ position going into Week 7, which included me betting the alternative lines on his rushing props (75+ and 100+) at massive odds. 

As I mentioned to LaMarca in our Betting Life NFL prop pod from last Thursday, I had a strong “vibe” that Daniels was probably going to go nuts as a rusher in this spot. The Panthers are down their best linebacker and were 29th in success rate and EPA per rush heading into this game. They just allowed 200 yards rushing to Atlanta’s RBs last week and would likely be selling out to slow down Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler. 

Add in the fact this defense hadn’t seen anyone near Daniels’ speed at QB this season, having faced mainly pocket passers to date, and you had a perfect storm where Daniels could have potentially reeled off one of his college stat lines and rushed for 100+ yards. 

I’ll ruin the punchline, as all know Daniels ended up getting injured and leaving after one drive, leaving me with no chance to hit this bet. But this one hurt because of what he was able to do in that single drive.

Daniels reeled off 47 yards on his first play of the game and had 50 yards rushing when he left. Given the fact Marcus Mariota had 11 rush attempts the rest of the way, it’s not hard to imagine that Daniels likely would have topped 100 rush yards (and then some) if he stayed on the field. 

Injuries are a part of football, and this is far from the first prop bet I’ve lost due to a player injury, but given how perfectly it seemed I had timed this one, it hurt more than usual to see Daniels not deliver those last 50 yards. 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 1: Jordan Doesn’t Show Us The Love

Getting the “best number” in sports betting is important. In last week’s Early Lines article, I wrote about getting the Packers at -2.5 instead of -3.0. I locked that play in the Bet Tracker, and while half a point of closing line value isn’t too significant, getting -2.5 instead of -3.0 is arguably the most important half-point in football. This game closed at Packers -3.0 (-120) at some places, so I was pretty darn happy with the process.

Of course, process doesn’t always equal results. My trash can is littered with tickets with positive closing line value, and this week’s Packers’ loss felt particularly brutal.

Green Bay outplayed the Texans pretty significantly. They limited the Texans to less than 200 yards of total offense. C.J. Stroud had less than 100 passing yards and completed less than 50% of his passes. The defense also sacked him four times.

How do the Packers — a team that supposedly boasts one of the best offenses in football — not blow out the Texans in a game like that?

The answer is pretty simple: turnovers. You can’t lose the turnover battle 3-0 and expect to win by margin very often. Love threw two backbreaking interceptions. One gave the Texans the ball at their own 45-yard line, while the other put them directly in the red zone. Nearly half of the team’s 22 total points came from those two dives.

The other turnover came on a muffed punt, which set the Texans up in the red zone once again. They punched that drive in for a touchdown. To recap, 17 of the Texans’ 22 points came off turnovers, and they had two drives start inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. It’s honestly a miracle that the Packers somehow managed to win this game.

Still, the 2-point win was not enough to reward anyone who actually bet on them. It was a game that they should’ve dominated but instead left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

Ulrich’s Bad Beat No. 2: Raiders Gonna Raider

The Rams were one of my favorite spots this week. I bet on them early (even before Week 6 was over) and got a -4.5 line, which I placed in our free NFL Bet Tracker. However, given how juicy this matchup was for Kyren Williams and the Rams' fourth-ranked rush offense (in EPA per play rankings), I saw no reason not to add to my position at -5.5 later in the week. 

Honestly, the Rams should have covered this easily, and for a while it looked like they would. They started the second half with a 14-6 lead and scored another TD midway through the third quarter. It didn’t look like it would end up mattering at the time, but their kicker Josh Karty (more on him later) missed the extra point. 

The Rams then lost concentration for a bit, allowing the Raiders two FGs in a row after an INT by Matthew Stafford to cut the lead to 20-12. It was getting sweaty but not panic time yet. Stafford took control and drove the Rams deep again, where they settled for a short FG attempt, which would have given us an 11-point lead with under 10 minutes to go — a great spot considering the Raiders would mathematically be OK with settling for a FG if they drove it deep. 

Karty (remember him) promptly stepped up to the plate again — and shanked it. 

Karty missing two kicks is really only part of the story, though, as this was a beat with multiple layers. The Raiders, who hadn’t scored a TD all game, suddenly had some hope and drove the length of the field, taking seven minutes off the clock in the process. Ultimately, they stalled at the goal line and had a fourth and 9 with under three minutes to play. 

Look, I’m no math major, but when you’re a road underdog of 5+ points and you have a realistic shot to tie the game with less than three minutes left, you should always take it. Unfortunately for me and the rest of the Rams bettors, Antonio Pierce (who has hurt me before this season) decided math is for losers and kicked a meaningless FG to cut the score to 20-15. The Rams then predictably closed out the game with the Raiders never coming close to scoring. 

I mentioned this one had layers, so just to recap:

  • If Josh Karty had kicked the extra point in the second half – we likely cover -5.5
  • If Josh Karty had kicked the 35-yard FG in the second half – we likely cover -5.5
  • If Antonio Pierce does some simple math and goes for it on fourth and 9 – we likely cover -5.5

None of those things happened, so ultimately the Raiders covered in a game that felt like they had no business even being in for most of Sunday afternoon (and I lost my Rams -5.5 bet). 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 2: 49ers Fill the Infirmary

I’m going to take the L with the 49ers. I bet against Patrick Mahomes again, and I got what I deserved. It was dumb.

But did the 49ers have to lose every pass-catcher with a pulse in that game? That felt like rubbing salt in the wound.

The 49ers were already down Christian McCaffrey, while Jauan Jennings was out with a hip injury. That left Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, one of the best pass-catching duos in football.

However, Samuel was apparently dealing with an illness, and he exited the game briefly after it started. Aiyuk would later go down with an injury that is feared to be a torn ACL. It left Brock Purdy to throw to a quartet of unproven players at the position: Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, Ricky Pearsall, and Jacob Cowing.

Beating the Chiefs is hard enough. Doing it at less than full strength is nearly impossible. If I had known that Samuel and Aiyuk weren’t going to play the full game, I obviously wouldn’t have bet on San Francisco.

This is another game where I managed to “beat the number,” with the 49ers ultimately closing at -2.5. And it’s another game where I was rewarded with exactly nothing for it.