We've flipped the page to the upcoming week and to help, Matthew Freedman is here with his NFL bets for Week 10:

It's Week 10, which means we're officially halfway through the NFL regular season. At this point, you know what this piece is about.

But just in case you don't, here's what this piece provides each week.

  1. Brief notes on my favorite NFL bets for Week 10.
  2. Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
  3. The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
  4. The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

To see all of my bets right when I make them—way before I write this piece—check out our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections.

You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.

Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Alright … let's get into Week 10.

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

My Favorite NFL Bets for Week 10

Here are my favorite bets currently available.

  • Ravens-Bengals Over 52.5 (-110, FanDuel)
  • Steelers +138 at Commanders (FanDuel)
  • Chargers-Titans Under 38 (-110, DraftKings)
  • Rams -2.5 vs. Dolphins (-110, BetMGM)

Odds and projections as of Tue. 11/5 at 9:30 pm ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Ravens-Bengals Over 52.5 (-110, FanDuel)

This is an outdoor divisional rematch in November—and it's an AFC North game to boot. Ordinarily, that would put me on the under.

But both of these defenses are vulnerable in exactly the wrong way.

The Ravens are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.168, per RBs Don't Matter). For the Bengals, QB Joe Burrow is No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.168).

On defense, the Bengals are No. 30 in rush EPA (0.029). On offense, the Ravens—thanks to the running prowess of QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry—are No. 3 in rush EPA (0.043).

When these two teams met in Week 5, they combined for 76 points in regulation and sent the game to overtime.

This year, both of these teams have been highly profitable for over bettors (per Action Network).

  • Ravens Overs: 8-1 | 69.6% ROI | +8.61 Margin
  • Bengals Overs: 6-3 | 27.7% ROI | +5.83 Margin 

It will be tilting for all of us when this game ends up 28-21.

  • Bet in Tracker: Over 49.5 (-110, Caesars Lookahead)
  • Projection: 55.2

Steelers +138 at Commanders (FanDuel)

I have maximal respect for Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. Last week, I highlighted him as a +1600 MVP value in my midseason futures breakdown. Etc., etc., etc.

That said, it feels wrong for the Commanders to be favored by a field goal.

If we look at how these teams this year have performed relative to market expectations, they're comparable.

  • Commanders: 7-1-1 ATS (58.8% ROI) | 7-2 ML (57.8% ROI)
  • Steelers: 6-2 ATS (42.6% ROI) | 6-2 ML (40.1% ROI)

The Commanders have markedly and consistently outperformed—but so have the Steelers.

On defense, the Steelers are in the top 10 while the Commanders are in the bottom 10.

  • Steelers Defense: -0.080 EPA | No. 6
  • Commanders Defense: 0.056 EPA | No. 24

On offense, the Commanders are an impressive No. 1 for the season (0.227 EPA), but the Steelers are a better-than-expected No. 13 (0.031), and since Week 7—when QB Russell Wilson was named starter—they're No. 5 (0.107).

Historically, it has been dangerous to bet on Commanders HC Dan Quinn as a favorite and profitable to bet on Steelers HC Mike Tomlin and Wilson as underdogs.

  • Quinn as Favorite: 25-35 ATS (-18.8% ROI) | 34-26 ML (-16.2% ROI)
  • Tomlin as Underdog: 61-35-4 ATS (23.3% ROI) | 51-49 ML (29.4% ROI)
  • Wilson as Underdog: 40-23-2 ATS (23.2% ROI) | 29-35-1 ML (15.5% ROI)

Sure, the Commanders are at home … but over the past five years, they've had one of the league's worst home-field advantages (per NFElo).

A full field goal on the spread simply feels like too much against a team as solid as the Steelers.

And since I have this projected as a pick'em, I might as well bet the Steelers ML. I bet this too early in the lookahead market, and the number has moved against me—so I could very well be wrong.

But this is a classic Tomlin spot.

  • Bet in Tracker: +106 (FanDuel Lookahead)
  • Projection: +0.1 | +102.9 ML

Chargers-Titans Under 38 (-110, DraftKings)

This game features two defenses that are top-10 in EPA and top-three in SR.

  • Chargers Defense: -0.159 EPA (No. 1) | 38.8% SR (No. 2)
  • Titans Defense: -0.043 EPA (No. 9) | 39.2% SR (No. 3)

On offense, the Titans are "hopeful" that QB Will Levis (shoulder) will return this week, which would probably be suboptimal for the team: We have him as a -3.1 downgrade against the spread relative to backup Mason Rudolph (per our QB ATS Value Chart).

The Chargers on offense have thrown the ball at a much higher rate since the Week 5 bye (per FTN).

  • Weeks 1-4: 47.0% pass rate | No. 28
  • Weeks 5-9: 56.8% pass rate | No. 12

But the Chargers are -7.5 home favorites and at their core, they're still a running team. I expect that once they get out to a lead they will be willing in the second half to trade the possibility of scoring points with the "certainty" of controlling the ball via the ground game.

For under bettors—aka "human wet blankets" like me—the Chargers have been the league's most profitable team this year: 7-1 (67.4% ROI).

I believe the market still has not caught up with this team's under tendencies.

  • Bet in Tracker: Under 39 (-110, Caesars Lookahead)
  • Projection: 36.0

Rams -2.5 vs. Dolphins (-110, BetMGM)

I don't have much to say about this one in terms of the matchup. This bet pretty much comes down to the projection.

I have the Rams as +1.5 points better than the Dolphins in my power ratings (+0.25 vs. -1.25).

The Rams don't have much of a home-field advantage at SoFi (+1), but they at least get the full benefit of being at home in that the Dolphins play on a different surface (Bermuda grass vs. Matrix Turf), they are non-divisional opponents, and they're traveling three time zones.

This is the third road game in four weeks for the Dolphins.

Does it matter that Rams HC Sean McVay has been notably better than Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel at night?

  • McVay in Primetime: 19-13-2 ATS | 13.9% ROI
  • McDaniel in Primetime: 2-9 ATS | -64.5% ROI

It might matter.

With the power quartet of QB Matthew Stafford, WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and RB Kyren Williams, the Rams have averaged 27.3 points across 12 games since last year.

I don't think the Dolphins will be able to stop the Rams from scoring.

  • Bet in Tracker: -2.5 (-110, Caesars Lookahead)
  • Projection: -3.3

Week 10 NFL Games That Have My Attention

  • Giants -5.5 vs. Panthers, in Germany (-115, DraftKings): I assume QB Bryce Young will start again after getting the win last week, and he's a downgrade of -2.8 points relative to veteran Andy Dalton.
     
  • Patriots +230 at Bears (BetMGM): The Bears are injured in their secondary, and they might have the better QB in this matchup.
     
  • Colts +4 vs. Bills (-110, Caesars): I might just be too high on the Colts in my power ratings.
     
  • Chiefs-Broncos Under 41.5 (-110, FanDuel): Two good defenses in a divisional outdoor game in November.
     
  • Buccaneers-49ers Over 51 (-110, Caesars): On average, Buccaneers games have gone over the total by 10.5 points.

Week 10 NFL Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.

Right now I'm 22-18, and I used Week 6 as my mandatory bye week because of log-in issues. I'm now No. 1068 of 3,637 entries. As long as I can stack 3-2 weeks on top of each other and then pop a 5-0 or 4-1 performance at some point, I'll have a decent chance of finishing in the money.

Week 10 lines for the contest aren't live as of writing, but these might be the five teams I'd pick (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).

  • Ravens -6 vs. Bengals: -6.5 at Circa
  • Giants -5.5 vs. Panthers (in Germany): -6 at Circa
  • Patriots +6 at Bears: +5.5 at Circa
  • Eagles -7 at Cowboys: -7.5 at Circa
  • Cardinals +1 vs. Jets: Pick'Em at Circa

I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.

NFL Week 10 Survivor Picks

I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.

Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 9, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-9 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, Commanders, Broncos, and Vikings.

  • Giants -6 vs. Panthers (in Germany): The Panthers won last week, but they're still the worst team in football, and the Giants won't be favored by this much again.
  • Bills -4 at Colts: I should likely save them for their two games against the Patriots in Weeks 16 & 18.
  • Ravens -6 vs. Bengals: I'd like to save the Ravens for Christmas, and I also don't like divisional games for Survivor.
  • Chiefs -8 vs. Broncos: Ditto. Christmas. Division.
  • 49ers -5.5 at Buccaneers: The 49ers off the bye are a possibility, but they have better games later in the season.

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Points Per Game (PPG)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.