Before we get into my NFL Bets for Week 2, I want to recap last week.
Last week was instructive.
I went 2-2 (-0.05 units) on the four ATS bets I highlighted in my Week 1 best bets article.
If you bet the Cowboys on the moneyline (as I noted I did) instead of the official spread pick, then you were marginally profitable.
And if you had made these bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our bet tracker, where you can get all of our free NFL bets—before I wrote my Week 1 article—then your record would've been 2-1-1 (+1.12 units).
Let's be clear: I'm not trying to contextualize away last week's article performance and insinuate that my recommendations were actually winners. The article slightly lost—and it's well within the range of outcomes that over the course of the season my official best bets as laid out in this weekly piece will be aggregate losers.
Here's why I'm saying this: When you make your bets, the lines that you get matter a lot, almost as much as the side you're on. And because of that, I recommend you regularly check out my bets in the tracker so you can see what I'm betting right when I bet it, when my bets will probably provide the most value.
And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I highly suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy football rankings and NFL player projections.
Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Alright … let's get into Week 2.
Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.
- Some brief notes on my favorite bets.
- Even briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
- The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
- The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
My Favorite NFL Bets for Week 2
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Cowboys -6.5 vs. Saints (-110, DraftKings)
- Titans-Jets Under 40.5 (-105, FanDuel)
- Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks (-110, FanDuel)
- Rams +105 at Cardinals (BetMGM)
- Broncos +3 vs. Steelers (-115, BetMGM)
Odds and projections as of Wed. 9/11 at noon ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Cowboys -6.5 vs. Saints (-110, DraftKings)
The Cowboys defense last week was No. 6 in defensive EPA (-0.302, per RBs Don't Matter). Last year, they were No. 7 (-0.058). Swap out DC Mike Zimmer for DC Dan Quinn, and it probably doesn't matter.
As long as the Cowboys still have EDGEs Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, they will have an above-average defensive unit at worst.
Last year, the Cowboys were No. 1 with 29.9 PPG … and then last week they put up 33 on the road against a Browns defense that was No. 1 in 2023 in EPA (-0.138) and was especially lethal at home.
The Cowboys looked to be in midseason form in Week 1.
Granted, they often dominate non-elite teams. In their 12 wins last year, their margin of victory was 22.2 points. When the Cowboys play average opponents, they tend to win big, and the Browns are average … as are the Saints.
Sure, the Saints scored an NFL-high 47 points last week—but that had more to do with their opponent (the lowly Panthers) than with anything outstanding they did. In the lookahead market, this number was -6.5 at most sportsbooks … and then the Saints absolutely dominated … and the line reopened at -6.5.
The Saints aren't a great team: They're just a team that played the league's worst team last week—and this week they're dealing with a number of non-trivial injuries.
As of writing (Wednesday afternoon), it looks like they could be without three offensive starters: TE Foster Moreau (head), WR A.T. Perry (hand), and LG Lucas Patrick (toe). And on defense, they're not certain to have No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring).
Laying less than a TD, the Cowboys should cover.
- Bet in Tracker: -6 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: -7.9
- Cutoff: -7
Titans-Jets Under 40.5 (-105, FanDuel)
The handicap here is simple.
The Jets have a good defense. Last year they were No. 3 in defensive DVOA (-14.2%, per FTN). The year before that, they were No. 6 (-9.5%). The Jets are reliably good at limiting points, especially against bad passers.
And I'll just gently assert here that QB Will Levis (who had a 1.8 AY/A in Week 1 and threw one of the most mind-numbing INTs you'll ever see) is a bad passer.
And it probably doesn't help that rookie HC Brian Callahan isn't just a first-time coach. He's also a first-time offensive playcaller. That feels extremely suboptimal for points.
Last year the Titans defense was average (at best), ranking No. 18 in DVOA (1.4%), but the team brought in first-time DC Dennard Wilson this offseason, and his unit looked vastly improved in Week 1, keeping the Bears offense out of the end zone and holding hyped QB Caleb Williams to a mere 93 yards passing on 29 attempts.
With new starters across the unit, especially in the secondary (CBs L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, FS Quandre Diggs), this Titans defense might actually be good—and we saw on Monday Night Football that the Jets offense is not anywhere close to peak form with QB Aaron Rodgers just now playing his first full game in almost 19 months and OC Nathaniel Hackett continuing to seem incapable of living up to the expectations of his position.
The Jets are playing in their second straight road game … and it probably doesn't matter where the Titans play, if we're being honest.
I simply don't see points in this contest.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 42 (-110)
- Projection: 38.7
- Cutoff: 40
Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks (-110, FanDuel)
Last year, the Patriots had one of the league's better defenses, ranking No. 6 in EPA (-0.059) and No. 7 in SR (41.0%). And in Week 1, even without former HC Bill Belichick, the Patriots showed that they still have some defensive backbone in holding the Bengals to just 10 points despite entering the contest as road underdogs of more than a TD.
On offense, the Patriots were acceptably mediocre: QB Jacoby Brissett was his typical game-manager self, and RB Rhamondre Stevenson carried the load for the unit with 120 yards rushing and a TD on 25 carries.
Under new HC Jerod Mayo, the Patriots don't look like a team that will roll over or quit in games.
The Seahawks won last week—but they got the victory against rookie QB Bo Nix in his first NFL start, and they struggled on offense when not running the ball, and maybe that shouldn't be a surprise, given that OC Ryan Grubb comes from the college ranks and wasn't the primary offensive playcaller even when he was the coordinator at Washington.
So the Seahawks have a rookie in defensive HC Mike Macdonald, an NFL novice and inexperienced playcaller in Grubb, and now they need to travel west to east for an early game against a team that is coming off a big road win and might be nastier than almost everyone expected … and that team is laying more than a field goal?
That doesn't make sense to me.
- Bet in Tracker: +4 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: +2.25
- Cutoff: +3
Rams +105 at Cardinals (BetMGM)
In the lookahead market, the Rams were -2.5, and I bet them at that number because I had them projected on the other side of -3 and I wanted to guard against the chance that the line could reopen at -3 after Sunday Night Football.
But the Rams suffered an overtime defeat to the Lions, they lost WR Puka Nacua (knee, IR), they endured an unfortunate string of injuries along the OL, and they reopened at -1.5 before watching the market flip to +1.5.
In Week 2, the Rams will be without LT Alaric Jackson (suspended), probably LG Steve Avila (knee), and maybe RG Kevin Dotson (ankle), RT Rob Havenstein (ankle), and swing OT Joe Noteboom (ankle).
That's a terrible cluster situation.
But here's the thing: Against the Cardinals defense, it probably won't matter.
Rams HC Sean McVay is one of the few coaches I trust to be able to game plan and play call around an OL vulnerability like this, especially if he has a full week to prepare with the issue in mind.
And I'm skeptical the Cardinals have the kind of defense that can exploit an opportunity like this. Last year, they were No. 31 in defensive EPA (0.091) and No. 32 in defensive SR (47.7%). Maybe the unit will be better in 2024 … but in Week 1 it was once again Nos. 31 & 32 in EPA (0.211) and SR (58.3%).
Even with the OL issues, the Rams offense I expect to look more or less like its usual self, and that means the Rams overall have the edge.
And, situationally, this is a spot where I want to back McVay, who for his career is 14-7-1 ATS (28.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-3 of the season, 24-14-3 ATS (20.9% ROI) off a loss, 17-11-2 ATS (16.8% ROI) as a road underdog, and 12-2-1 ATS (62.6% ROI) specifically against the division rival Cardinals (per Action Network).
And if I like the Rams as short underdogs and think they should actually be favored, shouldn't I just add to my position by betting them on the ML?
Yes, I think so.
- Bet in Tracker: +2.5 (-110, Lookahead) | +110 ML (Addition)
- Projection: -0.25 | +100 ML
- Cutoff: +105
Broncos +3 vs. Steelers (-115, BetMGM)
I'm gonna try to keep this brief.
QB Bo Nix looked bad last week in his NFL debut (1.1 AY/A), but he was on the road against the Seahawks, who have a true home-field advantage. I would expect him to be better at home in his second game. He should improve.
You know who almost certainly won't improve? Steelers OC Arthur Smith, whose run-heavy approach puts a hard cap on the number of points the team can reasonably expect to score, as evidenced by their Week 1 output of 18 points, all via FGs.
I'm sorry—but if you have a new coordinator, and you might be without your starting QB (in a #RevengeGame, by the way), and you're on a second consecutive road game to open the year, and you need to travel to play at elevation before you're in midseason football shape, and you failed to score a single TD the previous week … then you don't deserve to be favored by three points.
Do I want to back Nix in just his second game? No.
But sometimes a man needs to look himself in the mirror and say, “Whatever, it's only money, and I'm a degenerate.”
It doesn't hurt that Broncos HC Sean Payton is 54-35-2 ATS (18.8% ROI) as an underdog for his career.
- Bet in Tracker: +3.5 (-115)
- Projection: +1.5
- Cutoff: +3 (-120)
Week 2 NFL Games That Have My Attention
- Bills +2.5 at Dolphins: In the regular season, QB Josh Allen is 11-5-2 ATS (29.1% ROI) and 8-10 ML (43.2% ROI) as a road underdog.
- Lions -7 vs. Buccaneers: HC Dan Campbell is a covering deity with his career record of 38-17 ATS (31.8% ROI).
- Chargers -6.5 at Panthers: I expect the Chargers to run successfully against a unit missing DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR).
- Ravens -9.5 vs. Raiders: This number feels like it should be -10.
- Bengals +6 at Chiefs: QB Joe Burrow is 14-6-1 ATS (31.7% ROI) off a loss and 12-6 ATS (28.1% ROI) as an underdog away from home.
- Texans-Bears Under 45.5: The Bears might be able to drive this game to the under with their offensive struggles and defensive fortitude.
Week 2 NFL Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.
Last week I went 3-2.
If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 2, these might be the ones (based on the contest lines, the lines at sharp sportsbooks, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).
- Packers +3.5 vs. Colts: Consensus +3
- 49ers -5.5 at Vikings: Consensus -6
- Browns +3.5 at Jaguars: Consensus +3
- Buccaneers +7.5 at Lions: Consensus +7
- Steelers -2.5 at Broncos: Consensus -3
NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks
Thankfully, I survived last week by avoiding Bengals (-7.5) and going with Seahawks (-6).
Right now, here are the five teams I'm thinking about for the Circa Survivor contest for Week 2.
- Chargers (-6.5): If all I did each week was pick the team going against the Panthers, I might get pretty far. The Panthers feel like the kind of team a squad led by HC Jim Harbaugh wouldn't lose to, and the Chargers might never be favored by this many points again this year.
- Cowboys (-6.5): I can see the case for the Cowboys here … but I'm inclined to save them for the Thanksgiving slate. Gotta look ahead.
- Lions (-7): Again, I might need the Lions later in the year, possibly for Thanksgiving.
- Texans (-6): They should be able to get the win at home, and this could maybe be their largest spread of the season.
- Ravens (-9.5): It feels as if the Ravens have roughly a 0% chance of losing this game.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
