Before we get into my NFL bets for Week 3, let's look at last week.
- Cowboys -6.5 vs. Saints: Not even close
- Titans-Jets Under 40.5: Couldn't have been closer while still losing
- Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks: Thank the gods of gambling for the hook
- Rams +105 at Cardinals: Pain
- Broncos +3 vs. Steelers: Why?
In summary, I was 1-4 (-3.3 units).
If you had made these bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my Week 2 article—then your record would've been 2-3 (-1.25 units) with closing line value on three positions.
Is that great? No. But it's livable, and it's a decent reminder that you should regularly check out my bets in the tracker so you can see what I'm betting right when I bet it, when my bets will probably provide the most value.
And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I highly suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and NFL player projections.
Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Alright … let's get into Week 3.
Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.
- Some brief notes on my favorite bets.
- Even briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
- The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
- The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
My Favorite Week 3 NFL Bets
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Jets-Patriots Under 38.5 (-105, FanDuel)
- Eagles +3 at Saints (-118, SugarHouse)
- Packers +3 at Titans (-115, SugarHouse)
- Cardinals +3 vs. Lions (-115, FanDuel)
Odds and projections as of Wed. 9/18 at noon ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Jets-Patriots Under 38.5 (-105, FanDuel)
The Jets will be without EDGE Jermaine Johnson (Achilles, IR) and maybe LB C.J. Mosley (toe) on Thursday Night Football, but since 2022 they're No. 1 in defensive SR (39.8%) and No. 2 in defensive EPA (-0.071, per RBs Don't Matter).
At worst, the Jets have a top-quartile NFL defense.
And the Patriots since 2022 have been comparably strong, ranking No. 3 in defensive EPA (-0.069) and No. 4 in defensive SR (41.7%). Although former HC Bill Belichick is gone, there's strong continuity from his staff, especially with 2019-24 LBs coach Jerod Mayo replacing him.
This will be a defensive matchup.
As for the offenses … I'm skeptical that Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett will be able to pull together an exploitative gameplan on a short week, and the Patriots will almost certainly try to slow the game down with a ball-control ground-based attack: Despite being one of the league's worst teams, they're No. 5 in rush rate (57.7%).
You put all of that together, plus the fact that this is an outdoor divisional game, and it strongly points to the under, which in primetime since 2022 is 83-51 (18.5% ROI, per Action Network).
- Bet in Tracker: Under 38.5 (-110)
- Projection: 36.1
Eagles +3 at Saints (-118, SugarHouse)
Evidently I hate money, because I'm betting against the Saints for the third week in a row.
Since the preseason, I've upgraded no team more than the Saints in my power ratings and downgraded only a few teams more than the Eagles … but I still can't get to this number.
The Eagles will likely be without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (hamstring), but the Saints also seem unlikely to have No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), who didn't practice at all last week before sitting with a questionable tag.
And the Saints also could be without TE Taysom Hill (chest) and DT Khalen Saunders (calf). Those potential absences aren't massive, but they are additive, especially for a team that last year—with the same HC (Dennis Allen) and QB (Derek Carr)—went 1-6 ATS (-72.0% ROI) against teams with a .500 record.
Speaking of Allen and Carr, it feels relevant that the HC as a favorite is 9-16-1 ATS (-29.6% ROI) and the QB as a favorite is 22-37-2 ATS (-26.7% ROI).
Last Thursday, the lookahead line for this game was Eagles -3, and it was even -3.5 at some books.
A week-over-week adjustment from -3 to +3—without a QB injury or catastrophic cluster injury—is simply too much.
- Bet in Tracker: +3 (-115)
- Projection: +0.25
Packers +3 at Titans (-115, SugarHouse)
When I logged my Packers position in the tracker on Monday, the line was +2.5, and so I bet them on the ML at +115 … and then the odds moved against me.
Not great, Bob.
Still, I like the Packers and think in the current market they're best bettable at +3.
First of all, this is a #RevengeGame for HC Matt LaFleur and QB Malik Willis against the team that employed them right before they joined the Packers. Does that matter? Almost certainly not—but I gotta fill some space, know what I'm sayin'?
There are a few reasons I like the Packers.
First of all, we've seen the market overreact to QB injuries over the past few years and regularly adjust the spread by 1-2 points too much. Starter Jordan Love is indeed the league's most valuable QB ATS (+6.3)—but even so, the Packers were overly discounted last week, and I think they're still too cheap in the market now.
On top of that, there's an outside chance that Love will return to action this week. He probably won't, but he might.
Still, assuming Love is out, I don't think the QB edge the Titans have is all that outsized. In his first game ever with LaFleur—one of the league's best offensive playcallers—Willis looked like a player who can perform in an acceptable fashion within a strategically limited role. He didn't pass the ball much, but he completed 85.7% of his 14 attempts with a strong 10.1 AY/A, and he added a dynamic 6-41-0 rushing.
Most importantly, he didn't turn the ball over. He displayed the ability to avoid giving the game away.
Compare that to Levis, who this year has three INTs, two fumbles lost, and two all-time 2018-19 Josh Allen-esque meme-level plays, the most recent of which caused HC Brian Callahan to shout directly at his QB what all Titans fans were shouting at their TVs at that exact moment.
And regarding Callahan: He's not just a rookie HC. He's also a first-time NFL playcaller. In other words, he's trying to do two jobs he has never done before—and now in his third game balancing both jobs, he's going against one of the league's best coaches in LaFleur.
With a notable coaching edge and probably overstated QB deficit, the Packers should not be getting a full three points.
- Bet in Tracker: +115 (ML)
- Projection: +0.63 | +114.3
Cardinals +3 vs. Lions (-115, FanDuel)
As I noted in my breakdown of my favorite QBs for fantasy football Week 3, this is a great matchup for QB Kyler Murray against the Lions, who are yet to cover themselves in glory: In Week 1, they yielded 317 yards passing to Matthew Stafford, last week they allowed an efficient 8.4 AY/A and 5-34-1 rushing to Baker Mayfield, and last season they were No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.109).
With a rebuilt secondary—not one of their starting corners was with the team last year, and Brian Branch has shifted from slot to safety—the Lions could struggle against the pass for at least another week, and Murray has looked great as a thrower through two weeks with 428 yards and four TDs passing to no INTs with a 73.1% completion rate and 9.8 AY/A.
Matthew Berry's 2024 Ride or Die, Murray is dealing.
And he looks all the way back as a runner with 10-116-0 rushing. It appears the season-ending knee injury he suffered in 2022 is not slowing him down.
By the way, do I have a +10000 ticket on the Cardinals to win the No. 1 seed in the NFC? You bet I do.
As for the Lions, they could be without two defensive starters in EDGE Marcus Davenport (groin) and LB Alex Anzalone (concussion), the latter of whom is the team's top off-ball backer and regular defensive signal caller for the unit.
The loss of either player will make the defense more vulnerable to the Cardinals rush attack—and if the Lions can't stop Murray through the air or RB James Conner on the ground, then their odds of covering will be greatly reduced.
- Bet in Tracker: +4.5 (-110, Lookahead)
- Projection: +1.75
Week 3 Games That Have My Attention
- Vikings-Texans Under 46: Through two weeks, both teams have top-eight defensive units in EPA (Vikings, No. 4: -0.215; Texans, No. 8: -0.093).
- Chargers +1.5 at Steelers: The Chargers are just begging to be teased against a Steelers team that can't score—and under 35.5 also stands out.
- Raiders-Panthers Under 41: Even with QB Andy Dalton, the Panthers could struggle to move the ball, and the Raiders will likely have a run-heavy attack against a unit missing DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR).
- Falcons-Chiefs Under 46.5: The Falcons offense has underwhelmed through two games.
Contest Picks for Week 3
Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.
I went 3-2 in each of Weeks 1-2 to amass a 6-4 record. Frankly, I'm glad it's not worse. That has me at No. 437 of 3,637 entries and currently finishing in the money.
If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 3, these might be the ones (based on the contests' lines, the lines at sharp sportsbooks, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).
- Lions -2.5 at Cardinals: Consensus -3
- Saints -2.5 vs. Eagles: Consensus -3
- Rams +7.5 vs. 49ers: Consensus +7
- Cowboys +1.5 vs. Ravens: Consensus +1
- Vikings +2.5 vs. Texans: Consensus +1.5
I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines moves.
Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks
Thankfully, I survived last week by avoiding Ravens (-8.5) and going with Chargers (-5).
I currently have one of 3,877 surviving entries of the initial 14,266.
Right now, here are the teams I'm thinking about for the Circa Survivor contest for Week 2.
- Raiders (-5.5): I said this last week, and I'll say it again this week: If all I did each week was pick the team going against the Panthers, I might get pretty far. Plus, the Raiders will likely never be favored by this many points again this year … but I'd much rather be picking against QB Bryce Young than Dalton.
- Buccaneers (-6.5): I doubt the Broncos will win this one outright if they're yet to cover as underdogs.
- Jets (-6.5): Gonna be honest … this feels like a trap. The Patriots feel like the kind of team that can go on the road and beat a divisional rival in a low-scoring game on a short week.
- Bills (-5.5): I doubt I'll use the Bills in this spot, as they have some more advantageous games later on the schedule.
- Browns (-6): They host the Giants, who might now be the new Panthers as the team to pick against. That said … would it really be a surprise if the Browns lost to anyone?
- Bengals (-7.5): This might be the one. I'm tempted. But the Bengals do have some theoretically better games on their schedule later, so I might keep them on the shelf.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
