The midway point of the NFL season is here, so it's time to dive into my favorite NFL bets for Week 9.
For the year, I'm 16-17-1 (-2.05 units) on my featured best bets. Less than ideal.
That said, if this year you had tailed all my best bets at the lines where I first got them and logged them in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker—before I wrote my weekly articles—then your record would be 17-16-1 (+0.33 units).
And in our bet tracker, I'm having a profitable season when it comes to spreads, totals, and moneylines.
- Spreads: 34-25 (+5.99)
- Totals: 15-17 (-3.64)
- MLs: 8-7 (+1.55)
Props are another matter—but no need to highlight all my inadequacies at the moment.
The point: You should regularly check out our bets in the tracker, where we place the bets we're making right as we make them, when they're likely to provide the most value.
And if you're a more serious sports speculator, I suggest you get a FantasyLife+ subscription, which provides access to my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest), as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections.
You can get 10% off with the promo code FREEDMAN.
Of course, not everyone is looking to spend money, and that's cool. If that's you, check out the bet tracker, our free daily Betting Life Newsletter, and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Alright … let's get into Week 9.
Here's a reminder of what you're getting in this piece.
- Brief notes on my favorite bets.
- Briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
- The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
- The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Freedman’s Favorite NFL Bets For Week 9
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Jets-Texans Under 42.5 (-115, Circa)
- Cowboys +3 at Falcons (-120, ESPN)
- Bills -6 vs. Dolphins (-110, Caesars)
- Browns-Chargers Under 42.5 (-105, ESPN Bet)
- Lions -3 at Packers (-120, ESPN Bet)
Odds and projections as of Wed. 10/30 at 7:30 am ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Jets-Texans Under 42.5 (-115, Circa)
The Texans defense ranks No. 1 in SR (38.5%, per RBs Don't Matter), and its offense is missing two of its most explosive playmakers in WRs Nico Collins (hamstring, IR) and Stefon Diggs (knee, IR).
All of that points to the under, and Texans unders this year are 6-2 (43.6% ROI, per Action Network).
If this game is to hit the over, it will likely be because the Jets find a way to put up points … and I don't trust them to figure out a way to fix their broken offense on a short week.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 43.5 (-110, DraftKings Lookahead)
- Projection: 41.3
Cowboys +3 at Falcons (-120, ESPN)
At some point—perhaps this week?—the Cowboys will get back EDGE Micah Parsons (ankle) and CB DaRon Bland (foot, IR).
But my current projections assume they're out, and I still see value at +3. If they return to action against the Falcons, then there will be even more value realized with this bet.
On top of that, I'm still skeptical that the Falcons, despite their division-leading 5-3 record, are actually a good team.
They have a -1-point differential despite having already played four games against weak NFC South opponents. If we remove those divisional games, the Falcons are 1-3 with that one win coming by just one point.
The Cowboys are 3-4, but their four losses are to three of the league's best teams (Ravens, Lions, 49ers) and the Saints, whose offensive playcaller (OC Klint Kubiak) was uniquely positioned to exploit the Cowboys defense thanks to his previous time with the Vikings working under DC Mike Zimmer.
I'm not saying that the Cowboys are good—but the Falcons aren't good either, and +3 is too many points for a game with two mediocre teams.
- Bet in Tracker: +3 (-118, DraftKings)
- Projection: +2.3
Bills -6 vs. Dolphins (-110, Caesars)
Under HC Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins, by reputation, beat up bad teams and crumple against good teams. And that's reflected in McDaniel's record as an underdog: 6-11 ATS (-38.6% ROI).
The Bills aren't just a good team. They're great, specifically QB Josh Allen, who is a +325 MVP frontrunner. A gunslinger by nature, Allen this year has managed to rein himself in, resulting in a league-best 0.4% INT rate and career-high 9.0 AY/A.
With his newfound ball security, Allen is unlikely to give the game away, which means the Dolphins will need to earn the win if they're to get it, and QB Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills and HC Sean McDermott's defense: 5.5 AY/A, 2-5-1 ATS (-38.6% ROI).
Given that I have this projected on the other side of -7, I wouldn't even mind the idea of betting this up to the key number at plus money in the alternate spread markets.
- Bet in Tracker: -5.5 (-110, DraftKings Lookahead)
- Projection: -7.9
Browns-Chargers Under 42.5 (-105, ESPN Bet)
I bet the under in the lookahead market before the Week 8 games—and then Browns QB Jameis Winston passed for 334 yards and three TDs in a 29-24 win over the divisional rival Ravens.
So my lookahead bet at 39.5 currently looks like hot garbage.
But a move of three points on the total—especially through the key number of 41—is probably too large.
Even with the boost that Winston has given to the Browns offense in place of injured QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles, IR), I still like the under.
In this game, we have two top-10 defenses.
- Chargers: 38.9% SR (No. 4)
- Browns: 41.5% SR (No. 9)
And we also have an indoor team from California playing outdoors in the Midwest in November with a forecast that calls for a 34% chance of rain showers.
The Chargers under this year is 6-1 (64.0% ROI)—the most profitable under in the league—and I'm leaning into this trend this week.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 39.5 (-110, bet365 Lookahead)
- Projection: 39.7
Lions -3 at Packers (-120, ESPN Bet)
This is basically a bet that Packers QB Jordan Love (groin) doesn't play. After suffering an in-game injury last week, Love attempted to play through it but was unable to finish and so was replaced by backup QB Malik Willis.
Immediately after the game, HC Matt LaFleur voiced a "high level of concern" for Love's availability—but later Ian Rapoport reported that Love's injury is minor and is "determined to play" this week.
As of now, I'm skeptical.
When Love suffered a knee injury at the end of Week 1, the team intimated that he might be able to return in Week 2. He didn't. Again, the team suggested he might be able to suit up for Week 3, and he even practiced every day that week … but then he didn't play through his questionable tag.
The team can say whatever it wants, but its past pattern of communication raises doubt that we'll see Love this week (unless he's able to get in a full practice ahead of the weekend).
The Packers (in my opinion) are especially disincentivized to start Love given that they have their bye in Week 10. If they start him now, they might be rushing him back too soon and jeopardizing him for the rest of the season. If, though, they let him rest through the bye, he has a good chance of being fully healthy by Week 11.
And with Willis the team went 2-0 in Weeks 2-3. On the season, he has played remarkably well as an injury fill-in, as evidenced by his 11.3 AY/A and 8.6 yards per carry. He's not Love. We have him as a -3.6 downgrade (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart). But Willis is still good enough within the Packers offense to give the team a real chance to win.
So all of that makes me think Love will sit. Even so, my current projection gives Love a 25% chance of starting.
And if he does start, fine. In that case, I'll still have the No. 1 team in my power ratings (+6.75) and HC Dan Campbell (43-18 ATS, 34.6% ROI for career) going against a QB playing at less than 100%.
I can live with that.
- Bet in Tracker: -3 (-120, ESPN Bet)
- Projection: -3.5
NFL Week 9 Games That Have My Attention
Bengals -7 vs. Raiders (-112, DraftKings): I don't trust the Bengals right now, but I do have this projected just above -7.5.
Titans -168 vs. Patriots (FanDuel): Who are the Titans to be favored against anybody? … but they're at home, facing the Pats, and (I expect) going to keep QB Will Levis (shoulder) on the sideline for one more week.
Colts +200 at Vikings (bet365): QB Joe Flacco gives the Colts a real chance to compete.
Eagles-Jaguars Over 45.5 (-110, BetMGM): I'm intrigued by the over but need to wait to see the injury report. No way I want to bet the over if the Jags will be without their three starting WRs.
Freedman’s Week 9 NFL Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest. This year I've entered the mini $50 contest.
Right now I'm 19-16, and I used Week 6 as my mandatory bye week because of log-in issues. I'm now No. 1068 of 3,637 entries. As long as I can stack 3-2 weeks on top of each other and then pop a 5-0 or 4-1 performance at some point, I'll have a decent chance of finishing in the money.
If I had to pick my five teams right now for Week 9, these might be the ones (based on the contests, consensus, and sharp lines, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).
- Saints -6.5 at Panthers: -7 at Circa
- Patriots +3.5 at Titans: +3 at Circa
- Dolphins +6.5 at Bills: +6 at Circa
- Jaguars +7.5 at Eagles: +7 at Circa
- Packers +3.5 vs. Lions: +3 at Circa
I'm sure my opinions on some of these games will change as the week progresses and lines move.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Picks
I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.
Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 8, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-8 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, Commanders, and Broncos.
- Saints -7 vs. Panthers: The Saints almost certainly won't be favored by this many points again, and it's hard to go wrong picking against the Panthers, against whom they enjoyed a 47-10 victory in Week 1.
- Ravens -9.5 vs. Broncos: I probably need to save the Ravens for Christmas.
- Chiefs -9 vs. Buccaneers: Ditto. The Chiefs are reserved for Christmas.
- Vikings -5 vs. Colts: The Vikings will probably never be favored by more points.
- Bills -6 vs. Dolphins: I should likely save them for their two games against the Patriots in Weeks 16 & 18.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous NFL Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
