NFL Bets: Go High? Lean Low? And Patrick Mahomes' Record ATS
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Your Early Week 11 Primer: We’re almost halfway through the season, and things are moving fast and furious (or hot and heavy as Elaine Benes would say).
Heading into Week 11 we have some injuries and key notes/news to keep track of.
I’m going to give you my quick, GeoffsNotes (like CliffsNotes, but mine) on these situations and how I might be looking to play them, or profit from a betting perspective.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.0) at Detroit Lions: Trevor Lawrence (shoulder); Sam LaPorta (shoulder)
I would be shocked if Trevor Lawrence played this week, but it could happen. On the Lions’ side, TE Sam LaPorta injured his shoulder and could be out for Detroit.
Verdict: Mac Jones threw for 5.04 yards per attempt and 2 INTs on just 22 attempts in Week 10. If and when he gets confirmed as the starter this line likely hits 14.0. If you like the Lions, jumping on them early makes sense.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Dalton Kincaid (ankle); Amari Cooper (wrist); Keon Coleman (wrist/out)
The Bills may be without three of their top pass catchers. Coleman has already been confirmed out for Week 11, while Kincaid and Cooper are highly questionable.
Verdict: Dawson Knox may be in a nice spot for a one-week spike. The Chiefs have allowed 69.8 yards per game to opposing TEs, the most in the league.
Additionally, this Patrick Mahomes guy is 7-1 ATS since 2022 as an underdog, so the Chiefs’ moneyline offers solid early-week value.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Tee Higgins (hamstring); Orlando Brown (knee)
Higgins and Brown are two very important players for the Bengals. They both look like they’ll have a chance at playing in Week 11.
Verdict: I already bet the Bengals on the moneyline and placed it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker on Sunday Night. Good news on both men (or even one) and we could see the line flip and the Bengals close as favorites.
Don’t forget, we also have weekly Player Projections and a Prop Finder Tool, to help you navigate all of this injury madness and gain an edge in Week 11.
Both are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Totals: Three-Question Tuesday. Three Totals to Ponder for Week 11.
- NHL Prop Drop: Can Hyman break out against the Isles?
Week 11 NFL Totals—Lean Under in the Mile High City
by Geoff Ulrich
Instead of going back into the futures market, I thought I would change things up this Tuesday and take a look at some early game totals for Week 11.
With the weather changing, this is the time of year when jumping on totals early in the week can provide some great closing-line value. Here were three of the most interesting totals (and bets) that came out of my early-week research.
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons (44.0)
Denver is a tough place for opposing offenses. Empower Field at Mile High can be windy and the thin air gases players who are not used to the altitude. Going back a full decade, Unders in games played in Denver are 49-38-2 (56% win rate).
This year, the Broncos’ defense, which is ranked 4th in EPA per play, is allowing just 17 points per game through four home contests. While they have gone 3-1 to the over at home, two of those overs came against sub-40 game totals (Week 6 vs. LAC and Week 8 vs. CAR). Despite the overs hitting, neither of those games saw the total get past this week’s game total of 44.0 points.
The Falcons have plenty of offensive talent but are 6-4 to the under on the season and struggled to put up points in their two meetings with AFC teams this season; losing to Pittsburgh 18-10 (at home) in Week 1, and Kansas City 22-17 (in KC) in Week 3.
I placed this one in our free bet tracker early in the week. The idea of fading a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins outdoors, in a game where temperatures will be around 45-50 F, was too tempting for me to wait on.
The Bet: Under 44.0 (-108; DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens — 47.0
Here is how the last four games between the Ravens and Steelers have played out.
Week 18 (2023)—17-10 PIT
Week 5 (2023)—17-10 PIT
Week 17 (2022)—16-13 PIT
Week 14 (2022)—16-14 BAL
Despite the clear trend toward close, low-scoring games, I do like the over this week. The Ravens’ pass defense has been terrible all season (27th in EPA per play; 30th in EPA per dropback) while their offense is nearly unstoppable (1st in EPA per play). That’s led to them being 9-1 to the over this season and 5-0 to the over on the road.
Normally we wouldn't be able to trust the Steelers to do their part, but this offense is no longer under the shackles of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Matt Canada. They’ve averaged 30.33 points in their last three games, with Russell Wilson as the starter, and are now 5-4 to the over on the season.
On a side note, it will be interesting to see how our NFL Game Model projects this one. The Ravens game last week closed at 53.0 points at many shops, and a 6-point drop just feels like a little too much.
The Bet: Over 47.0 (-110; bet365)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers—46.5
Joe Burrow has rarely played indoors during his NFL career, but when he has the results have not been disappointing. In Burrow’s five regular-season dome starts, the Bengals have averaged 28.4 points.
This week they’ll be playing in SoFi Stadium, which is for all intents and purposes a dome. They’ll be against a Chargers team that has scored 26 points or more in each of their last three games.
A big reason for that recent surge in points is the improved health of Justin Herbert, who has averaged 9.41 yards per attempt over his last three starts. He’ll be taking on a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and has allowed 96 points, or 32 points per game, over their last three starts.
Given how poor the Bengals’ defense has been at limiting points, it’s hard not to be bullish in this spot, especially given that we have two of the best QBs in the game going at it in prime time.
The Bet: Over 46.5 points (-110; FanDuel)
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The Best of the Best: Get Dwain McFarland’s Industry-Leading Utilization Report before you hit Week 11.
👎 MNF’s first TD scorer was (checks notes) … Malik Washington? I’m guessing this was most people’s reaction.
👑 Someone (a degenerate sports bettor) asked Lebron to get a rebound … and he obliged. That’s why he’s the KING.
⬆️ Moving and Shaking. Thor Nystrom delivers his College Football Playoff Projections heading into Week 12.
🐶 It’s been seven years since the Dogs barked this loudly. Underdogs went 11-3 ATS in Week 10, and eight won outright.
NHL Prop Drop—Hyman should pop against Isles
by Geoff Ulrich
Zach Hyman hasn’t had the greatest start to the NHL season. It took him 11 games to get his first goal and he has just three on the season entering Tuesday (a 16-goal pace). He’s also gotten far fewer pucks on the net this year (which is part of the problem), as he’s averaging just 2.52 SOG per game in 2024-25, after averaging 3.62 SOG last season.
The winger is coming off a career season where he potted 54 goals, with an 18% shooting percentage, so there was bound to be some regression. However, it now feels like he’s rebounded too far in the other direction and is likely to have some better results soon—even if it just means getting more pucks on the net in the short term.
The Bet(s): Zach Hyman over 3.5 SOG (+135; bet365); Hyman anytime goal (+145)
Hyman and the Oilers are coming off a 7-2 romp against the Canucks on Saturday and tonight take on the Islanders, a team that has allowed an average of 34.2 shots on net over their last four games. The Islanders are about middle of the pack in the league on the season in terms of shots allowed, but have been notably poor against forwards of late, allowing Devils winger Stefan Noesen to land 7 shots against them in their last outing on Saturday.
Hyman may enter this game having fallen short of the 4.0 SOG threshold in seven straight starts, but the stats say that streak will break soon. His longest stretch last year without at least 4.0 shots on net in a game was six (a streak that also came early on in the season) and—while the results aren’t there yet—Hyman has at least “attempted” six or more shots now in five of his last 11 games.
Given that Hyman would often go off at -115 last season (on an over 3.5 SOG total), I‘m happy to play this prop down to +125 and entered it in our NHL Bet Tracker late last night. With his anytime goal prop sitting at even bigger odds, and the Islanders having some defensive issues of late, mixing that in as a straight play or in an SGP makes a lot of sense as well.
Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.
