NFL Coach of the Year Odds & Picks: A veteran coach at 25-1

We are still one month removed from real football, and even with preseason games to give us some stimulation, it’s still the best time of the year to go diving into NFL futures odds. 

Over the last week or two, we have already gone over MVP and Rookie of the Year Odds (OROY and DROY). We also dove into some team-specific bets, like this Chicago Bears preview from Matt LaMarca. 

In this article, we’re going to dive into the NFL Coach of the Year award and see which coaches may present the best preseason value for betting. On top of providing the current COY and historical COY odds, we’ll also go over any betting trends to note for the award and note any specific bets we have already made (which you can also find in our free NFL Bet Tracker). 

Previous 10 Coach of the Year Winners

Coach of the Year Betting Trends

Over the past decade or so there have been two types of coaches who have won Coach of the Year; rookie head coaches who have lifted their teams to improbable playoff berths and veteran head coaches who have lifted their teams to the top of the division or conference standings.  

Coach of the Year also tends to be one of the more subjective awards out there as there are no advanced stats for coaches; at least not ones that are mainstream or can be easily tracked. So voters end up going more by narrative and, of course, the win-loss column—and things like playoff seeding and playoff berths. 

Looking at the past 10 winners, the following two categories of coaches stick out.

1. Veteran head coaches who elevate what once was an average or above-average team to a division win or a No. 1 seed
2. Rookie head coaches who lead their teams to an improbable winning record and playoff berth 

Coach of the Year winners from the past 10 years who fit in the first trend include Bruce Arians (2014), Ron Rivera (2015), Jason Garrett (2016), John Harbaugh (2019), Mike Vrabel (2021), and Kevin Stefanski (2023).

Coach of the Year winners from the past 10 years who fit the second trend include Sean McVay (2017), Matt Nagy (2018), Kevin Stefanski (2020), and Brian Daboll (2022). 

In 2023, Kevin Stefanski took the Browns from a losing season to an 11-6 record and also overcame serious QB injuries, which bolstered his stock. He overcame strong campaigns from a couple rookie head coaches, including DeMeco Ryans, who led the Texans to a playoff berth one year after they recorded a 3-13-1 season. 

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Odds to win 2024 NFL Coach of the Year

*Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

As of this writing, we have a nice blend of veteran head coaches and rookie head coaches near the top of the board. Matt LaFleur is a veteran head coach I could see taking Green Bay back into 12+ wins territory and getting in the running for his first COY award. Both DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen could also make up for last season's close calls if they can get their teams to 12+ wins and into the one or two seed in the AFC. 

However, there are also some good odds on potential winners outside of the top-10 names, and with three of the past five winners of this award going off at +2500 or bigger, that’s the area I’m targeting for this year as well.  

Mike McDaniel +2500

McDaniel fits the bill of the sort of veteran head coach I want to target for this award. His teams have posted winning records in each of the past two seasons but have yet to win their division, so there is still some room for him to improve in the eyes of voters. He’s also received a lot of the accolades for his team’s offensive success the past two seasons and was able to keep Miami as a top-tier offensive team (seventh in EPA per play in 2022; fourth in EPA per play in 2023) despite some big injuries to his star players. 

At +2500 he’s also somewhat of a bargain in the betting odds considering that the Dolphins are +1000 on DraftKings to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC this year (and +1100 to win the conference). While there is no guarantee the award goes to McDaniel in that scenario, if Miami does get the first seed he’ll undoubtedly be one of the favorites heading into the final two weeks and a bet on him will potentially offer some good hedge opportunity. 

I’m also not overly bullish on either the Jets or Bills this season so I like the idea of backing the Dolphins, in multiple ways. At the end of the day, McDaniel is also a popular persona and was the betting favorite for this award in the middle of October last season, so it’s not like he’ll be some unknown quantity for voters if Miami does outperform.  

As of this writing, his odds look like one of the better value propositions in the COY market and a good upside target if you are bullish on Miami for 2024. 

–Geoff

Brian Callahan +2500

I like a lot of the moves new Titans Head Brian Callahan made in the offseason. He addressed the biggest deficiency on the team in the offensive line, drafting JC Latham with the seventh overall pick and bringing in center Lloyd Cushenberry from the Broncos, whose 2.3% pressure rate against was third best at his position. 

He also committed to Will Levis at QB, and he showed glimpses of elite play when he wasn’t getting left out to dry by his O-Line, or handing the ball off on 2nd and 11 to Derrick Henry. During his tenure as offensive coordinator on the Bengals, Callahan didn’t call plays but certainly influenced the decision making and it led to Cincinnati ranking second (2022) and third (2023) in early-down pass rates the past two seasons. That’s not a guarantee of future success but teams that pass more on first down generally perform better. 

Regardless of how you feel about the Titans, Callahan will inherit a team that went 6-11 last season and that most feel has no shot at a playoff berth in 2024. As of this writing, Tennessee is +440 to reach the playoffs (18.52% implied probability) but Callahan to win COY can be had as big as +2500 (3.85%). That’s a massive gap given that Callahan, much like former rookie head coaches Ryans last year (second in COY voting) and Daboll in 2022 (winner COY), would likely get serious consideration for the award if that scenario (Titans making the playoffs) plays out. 

At his current line, he’s my favorite rookie head coach to target in this award for 2024 and a great way to bet on the Titans if you are bullish on them outperforming in the upcoming season. 

–Geoff

Shane Steichen (+1500; FanDuel)

I’m not sure the general public realizes how good of a coach Steichen is. He led the Colts to nine wins last season despite dealing with a host of hardships:

• Only four games from Anthony Richardson
• 13 starts for Gardner Minshew, PFF’s No. 31 qualified quarterback
• Seven missed games for Jonathan Taylor
• The second-toughest schedule of opposing defenses, including the toughest schedule of run defenses

Steichen’s impact wasn’t just felt by the Colts, but by his old team as well. The Eagles went from one of the best offenses in football in 2022—No. 3 in points and yards per game—to a much more mediocre unit. They had the same quarterback, same receivers, and arguably a better running back, yet they were still unable to duplicate their success under Steichen.

Last year, Steichen was able to make chicken salad out of an awful set of circumstances. This year? If everything goes right, he’ll have much better ingredients to work with. Richardson is quite possibly the greatest athlete to ever play quarterback at the NFL level. Adonai Mitchell gives the team a legit field stretcher. Taylor could be the best running back in the NFL.

There’s a world where Steichen propels this unit to the top of the offensive leaderboards and the AFC South standings. If they can win the division (+330; Caesars) or make the playoffs (+145; BetMGM), Steichen is very live to win Coach of the Year.

–LaMarca

Robert Saleh (+1800; FanDuel)

Saleh’s starting point is a bit higher than most typical COY candidates. His team already has a championship-caliber defense. The Jets just need to get better production from the offense.

A full season out of Aaron Rodgers would certainly help. The surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer didn’t even make it through a full drive with the Jets last season, leading to another season with Zach Wilson and Co. helming the attack. Needless to say, that didn’t work out very well.

Rodgers will turn 41 in December, but even at his advanced age, the Jets still have the potential for the biggest QB upgrade in the league in 2024. Rodgers will undoubtedly get a lot of the credit if that happens, but we shouldn’t discount Saleh in the COY market either. Something like 12 or 13 wins is possible, which would represent a huge increase from last year’s total. The voters tend to reward that kind of turnaround, even if it isn’t a masterclass in coaching.

-LaMarca

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