NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds and Picks: Joe Burrow Time?

Welcome to the Comeback Player of the Year Award, where everything’s made up and the points don’t matter. You mainly have to be coming back from a season-ending injury the year prior … but not always. You mainly have to put up strong production … but not always. This award is ultimately very similar to Most Improved Player in the NBA—there’s no hard-and-fast criteria, so it’s going to feel very subjective.

The one thing that is a constant is that every winner needs a story. Last year’s winner Joe Flacco came off the couch and led the Browns to the postseason. Geno Smith won the award two years ago after being written off by the rest of the NFL. Alex Smith took home the trophy after returning to football after nearly having his leg amputated.

With that in mind, let’s dive into everything you need to know to bet the award in 2024, including betting trends, the current odds, and our favorite values.

2024 NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD—PAST 10 WINNERS

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR BETTING TRENDS

With an award that is so subjective, it makes sense to take a “barbell approach” to betting. That means targeting guys who are favorites or looking way down the board for value. Three of the past five winners—Flacco, Smith, and Ryan Tannehill—weren’t even on the board at the start of the year. They were so far off the radar that they didn’t emerge as candidates until the games started happening.

That means that this is a market where you should always be looking for value. Flacco started popping up late in the season at 100-1 or greater. He was able to close the distance in just a matter of weeks, something that would be impossible in the MVP or Rookie of the Year markets. That’s the power of having a good story.

Additionally, this award has started to skew much heavier to the offensive side of the ball. Specifically, a quarterback has taken home the award in six straight seasons, while no defensive player has won since Eric Berry in 2015.

That bias is reflected in the current betting market. Nine of the top-10 options are quarterbacks, with Nick Chubb standing out as the lone exception. Most of these quarterbacks are coming off an injury in 2024, but some are looking to rewrite their narrative. Guys like Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson fit the Flacco/Smith mold of guys who are looking to overcome ineffectiveness more than a catastrophic injury.

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2024 NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR ODDS

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR BEST BETS

Joe Burrow (+300; DraftKings)

Aaron Rodgers is the betting favorite after suffering an injury just four plays into his debut season with the Jets. There is definitely a world where Rodgers leads the Jets to the playoffs and takes home the hardware, but at soon-to-be 41 years old, that’s far from a guarantee. Even if the Jets do find success as a team, it could be because of their defense more than their offense.

Personally, I’d rather roll the dice on Burrow. He’s still very much in his prime, and he was arguably the second-best player in football in his last full season. He racked up nearly 4,500 yards and 35 passing touchdowns en route to a fourth-place finish in MVP voting.

Expectations for Burrow and the Bengals are just as high as they are for the Jets. In fact, they might be even higher. Their preseason win total is hovering around 11.5 wins, while they have the third-best odds to win the AFC.

If Burrow can put together another campaign like he had in 2022—and the Bengals make it back to the postseason—that should be enough to garner plenty of consideration for CPOY. The fact that “Joe Brrr” is also almost universally loved also helps, which certainly can’t be said for the mercurial Rodgers. I think their odds should be flipped, so I’m happy to grab Burrow at +300.

-LaMarca

Kyler Murray (+5000; FanDuel)

Expectations for the Cardinals are deservedly low this season, with a preseason win total of just 7.0. That said, I think people have forgotten how good Murray is at football when healthy.

It was three years ago when Murray led the Cardinals to an 8-1 record before suffering an injury. The team ultimately came crashing back to reality, but Murray would’ve won the MVP if the season ended in Week 10. That’s the type of ceiling that he brings to the table.

Murray remains capable of making the kind of plays that most quarterbacks can only dream of.

The Cardinals would go on to win that contest, and they posted a 3-5 record with Murray under center in 2023. It’s going to take better production than that for Murray to take home CPOY in 2024, but that’s why he’s available at +5000. There’s a world where Murray posts some of the best statistics in football and reestablishes himself as one of the premier young quarterbacks in the NFL. If that happens, he should at least be in contention for CPOY.

-LaMarca

Daniel Jones (+1800; FanDuel)

The sentiment on Jones really couldn’t be lower heading into Year 6. The media questions his ability repeatedly and his contract is consistently regarded as one of the worst in the league.  This gives us a low floor of expectations and adds a potential element of surprise that voters often seem to latch onto for this award. 

It’s not like Jones doesn’t have upside either. Two years ago, he led the Giants to the playoffs, completing 67% of his passes and rushing for 44.3 yards per game. For a rudimentary comparison, last year’s MVP Lamar Jackson also completed 67% of his passes and rushed for 51.3 yards per game. 

-Ulrich

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