Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca break down their NFL Conference Championship best bets and props ahead of a highly anticipated Sunday:

And then there were four. We’ve made it to the penultimate weekend of the NFL season, with just three games standing between us and a new champion. The NFC Championship will feature a showdown between the Commanders and Eagles, while the AFC Championship will pit the Bills against the Chiefs.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Preview

Three of those teams were fully expected to be here. The Chiefs have won two straight titles in three in the past five years, and they have the best player on the planet in Patrick Mahomes. They haven’t always looked their best this season—including in the divisional round against the Texans—but they’ve managed to make it here basically unscathed.

The Bills will be looking to get over the hump for the first time in the Josh Allen era. They’ve come close before, but they’ve been ousted by Kansas City in three of the past four postseasons. Will this be the year that they finally get over the hump?

The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl two years ago but regressed badly last season. That said, they’ve managed to rebuild things extremely quickly. Their offense has been turbocharged by the addition of Saquon Barkley, while their defense has gone from a weakness to a strength. It’s a testament to their front office, which has proven to be one of the savviest in football on a nearly yearly basis.

Then, there’s the Commanders. This was not supposed to be their year. They were breaking in a rookie quarterback, and their preseason win total was set at just 6.5. However, they’ve completely defied expectations, with Jayden Daniels already leading the team to two road playoff wins in his first season. He looked unflappable against the Lions last week, propelling the team to 45 points in a massive upset.

Even though there are only two games, this should ultimately be one of the best football weekends of the year.

Let’s dive into some of our best bets for the conference championships. I’ll break down my favorite ways to approach both contests, while Geoff Ulrich will add some of his favorite props.

Best Bets For The NFL Conference Championship Games

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Daniels will be looking to make history on Sunday. No rookie quarterback has ever won three postseason contests, and only three others have even managed two (Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco). Daniels has been an underdog in each of those contests, including getting nearly 10 points last week vs. the Lions.

The line isn’t quite as long this week, but this will undoubtedly be Daniels’ toughest test. While the Lions have been one of the best teams in football all season, they limped into the postseason defensively. They suffered numerous key injuries on that side of the ball, so it’s not a huge shock that the Commanders managed to find success. Washington averaged more than 31 points per game with a healthy Daniels, who turned in a historically good rookie season:

However, the Eagles’ defense is a different beast. From Week 10 on (including playoffs), Philly is No. 1 in EPA per play defensively. The Lions were merely 18th. It’s going to be a massive step up in weight class, and the Eagles have already shut down the Commanders’ offense once in Philadelphia. They limited them to 18 points in their first meeting in Philly, and eight of those points came with less than a minute left in a game that had already been decided.

Meanwhile, the Commanders’ defense remains a major question mark. They’re 22nd in EPA per play defensively from Week 10 on, and they surrendered 521 yards to the Lions last week. If not for an uncharacteristic five turnovers, that game could’ve played out differently.

The Eagles averaged just 0.8 giveaways during the regular season, and they’ve yet to turn the ball over in the postseason. They’re not going to give this game away.

Instead, the Commanders are going to have to take it, and I don’t think they’re quite ready to do so. Daniels may well be a future MVP, but the rest of the team is simply not at that level yet. I’m trusting with the playoff experience of Jalen Hurts and company to ultimately get the job done.

Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-102; FanDuel)

Best Player Prop Bets For Commanders vs Eagles

A.J. Brown Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)

  • A.J. Brown 6+ receptions / 70+ yards (+400; bet365)
  • A.J. Brown 6+ receptions / 80+ yards and anytime TD (+800; bet365)

Brown hasn’t done much in either of the first two playoff games. He wasn’t needed at all in the Eagles' thumping of the Packers and last week had a poor connection rate with Jalen Hurts, going just 2 for 7 in converting his catches.  

You want to get too stubborn chasing receivers in a run-heavy offense but Browns’ totals have taken another steep drop down after last week, with the over on his 4.5 reception total hitting +100 in spots and his receiving yards total coming in well below 60 yards.

That’s enough for me to bite again. The Rams defense did a great job of containing Brown but Washington may not have the same luck. They just allowed the Lions WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown to post his highest yardage total of the season (8 rec and 137 yards) and struggled against Brown this season as well, giving up 8 receptions (15 targets), 97 yards, and a TD to him back in their Week 16 thriller.

I’m personally fine taking an all-or-nothing approach on Brown this week too, who we have projected for 5.0 receptions and 70 yards right now on Fantasy Life. You can ladder him through 6+ receptions and 70+ yards on bet365 right now at +400 (a mark he’s hit four times in 15 games this season) and also get +800 by adding in an anytime TD and bumping up the yardage to 80+ (he’s also done this four times this season).

If he flames out again, it’s likely because the Eagles ran for 250+ yards and we’ll have another chance to chase his alternative lines in the Super Bowl. Where, hopefully, the third time will be a charm.

Olamide Zaccheaus Over 21.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

I’m going to double down on another WR in this game who came up short last week in Zaccheaus. The slot receiver had a groin injury that forced him to miss parts of last week’s contest but was otherwise ineffective (2 targets, 0 catches) and overshadowed by Dyami Brown again.

There is little doubt that Zaccheaus now appears to be the third wheel at WR, behind Brown and Terry McLaurin, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on the field a lot in a game where the Commanders are projected to be trailing late.

Overall, he’s still gone for 30+ yards in four of his last six games, so the move down to 21.5 (from 32.5 last week) seems to be a bit overblown. We have him projected for 32.0 yards this week, suggesting there is a bit of a disconnect as well. 

Jeremy McNichols Anytime TD (+1700; FanDuel)

Just looking at the anytime TD odds for this game, the massive +1700 available on McNichols stood out. The Commanders have a defined No. 1 in Brian Robinson, but Robinson isn’t of the same class as Barkley (or any near that level) and has had his issues converting on SDD carries and around the goal line.

That’s led to the Commanders using either McNichols or Chris Rodriguez in those situations at points in the season, even in games where Robinson is healthy. It happened again last week when McNichols salted the game away for the Commanders by fighting for a yard down inside the Lions' five-yard line and eventually finding the endzone.

Obviously, McNichols is at +1700 for a reason this week: The Eagles have a better defense, and the Commanders are once again huge underdogs. Still, the +1700 odds (5.5% IP) are likely a little too inflated. 

McNichols scored five TDs this season in 18 games played and was the only RB other than Robinson or Austin Ekeler to take the field last week. It’s likely he’ll be the only other back active vs the Eagles, and he only needs one chance to convert. At +1700, there are far worse longshot bets to make this week.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Just like last week, the AFC contest to wrap up the weekend is the one that people are most looking forward to. If Ravens-Bills was the appetizer, Bills-Chiefs is the main course.

On paper, it’s pretty easy to craft a narrative for why the Bills are the superior side. The Chiefs may have had the better record, but they have just 10.2 expected wins based on point differential. The Bills were at 11.9 expected wins. Offensively, the Bills are second in EPA per play, while the Chiefs are No. 9. On defense, the Bills rank 11th in EPA per play and the Chiefs 15th.

These two teams also met in the regular season, and the Bills handed the Chiefs their only loss with Mahomes in the lineup. Buffalo outgained them by more than 100 yards and ultimately won by nine points, so it wasn’t even particularly close.

In other words—if you were only looking at the metrics, the Bills are the better team.

But with the Chiefs, the metrics don’t tell the full story. They have a certain magic about them, and they find a way to win games that they probably shouldn’t. Just look at last week vs. the Texans. They were outgained by more than 120 yards and were neutral on turnovers, yet they still managed to win by nine points. Whether it’s Mahomes, Andy Reid, the refs, or just plain luck, this team always seems to come out on top.

The Chiefs have had their issues covering the spread at times in recent years, but getting Mahomes as a small favorite or underdog has historically been money. For his career, Mahomes is now 20-7-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than a field goal, including a perfect 7-0 in the postseason. He covered three times in that split last year during the playoffs, knocking off the Bills, Ravens, and 49ers en route to his third championship. Those games felt very similar to how this one feels; the other team might have more talent, but as long as the Chiefs have Mahomes, it’s tough to bet against him.

Ultimately, I’m going to keep things simple and grab the Chiefs at -125 on the moneyline. This should be a close game one way or the other, and history suggests that the Chiefs pull out those types of wins more than just about anyone.

Pick: Chiefs ML (-125)

Best Player Prop Bets For Bills vs Chiefs

Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+190; DraftKings)

I love the prices we’re getting for a Kareem Hunt anytime TD this week.

The Chiefs continue to use a balanced rotation at running back, but both backs seem to have very specific roles. Isiah Pacheco is brought in more in the middle of the field as a home run hitter (although he hasn’t been hitting many lately), while Hunt is the established short-down and distance back the Chiefs prefer to use on inside-the-five (I5) carries and to ice out games.

KC didn’t run much last week, but when they were in SDD and I5 situations, it was Hunt who got the ball. He scored on a short carry (his third game with a rushing score) and outperformed Pacheco again, going for eight carries and 44 yards (5.5 yards per carry).

Despite all that and the fact Hunt has taken 100% of the I5 caries for the Chiefs in their last three games, Hunt is still available at bigger prices this week in the anytime TD market than his counterpart. 

His +190 price on DraftKings (34% implied probability) certainly doesn’t reflect his current role or how productive he’s been when given these carries for the Chiefs, who are set as small favorites this week with an implied team total of around 24 points.

I’d be fine playing this all the way down to +160 if need be.

Kareem Hunt Over 8.5 carries (+100; FanDuel)

If you don’t like TD props, here is another way to play Hunt. As of now, the veteran has out-carried his younger counterpart in three straight games and averaged 10.25 carries over his last three starts.

Last week, Hunt came in just under this number at 8.0 carries. However, if the Texans had not had their last FG blocked, Hunt may have gotten a couple more opportunities as the Chiefs tried to get a first down rather than simply kneel out the clock (and take the safety).

Regardless, this prop again seems to be baking in too much of a threat of Pacheco taking opportunities away. We have Hunt projected for 9.7 carries this week and if the Chiefs do get out in front, I'd say there is every chance we may even see him approach 10+ carries, given both the weight of this game and how effective he was for them last week.

Mack Hollins Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-125; BetMGM)

Outside of Khalil Shakir, who seems to be the only Bills receiver who is guaranteed consistent targeting every week, it’s nearly impossible to trust any of the Bills WRs.

Hollins stands out as the best receiver of the group to fade just from a role standpoint and the fact he’s up against a solid secondary, which tends to push action to the middle of the field where the Bills do have two reliable TEs.

Hollins caught the first pass of the game from Josh Allen last week but then didn’t see a target until the fourth quarter. He’s made big plays at points for the Bills, but with Keon Coleman back and Amari Cooper in the mix, Hollins saw his route rate drop to 43% last week, his lowest mark of the year.

If he doesn’t catch that first pass, it’s possible that Hollins puts up a goose egg vs the Ravens and his totals for this game are significantly smaller.

As it is, we have him projected for 15.0 yards, and given the data, I think he makes for a worthy fade down to 15.5 yards if necessary.