Geoff Ulrich delivers the props for NFL Conference Championship Sunday.

We move into the Conference Championship this week with two games to choose from for props.

It was a rough week for the props in the Divisional Round as we suffered through a couple of our receivers regressing on the field or dealing with injuries. Luckily, Sam LaPorta saved the day to an extent by cashing in the longest prop on the board with this crazy TD catch. 

With two massive games on the slate, we still have a ton of opportunities to look to this week for props. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props did, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

Just like usual, you can find all my Conference Championship bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 9.5 carries 

  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 10.0

I understand why we should expect Brian Robinson to potentially underperform this week. The Commanders are +6.0 underdogs and the Eagles tend to dominate time of possession, which may make the carries for Robinson hard to come by. Still, I can’t help but think the props on Robinson are just a little too bearish. 

After all, it’s not like you can’t run on the Eagles. Josh Jacobs put up 81 yards on them (18 carries), while Kyren Williams ran for 106 yards on just 19 carries (5.57 ypc). 

Robinson has also played the Eagles twice already this season and the results were uneven, but not terrible. He managed just 24 rush yards against them in Week 16, but still took 10 carries in that game (which the Commanders won). He had better luck back in Week 11, rushing for 63 yards on 16 carries, a game in which he also rushed for a TD.

For the season, he’s taken 10+ carries now in 13 of 16 games. That’s not a guarantee he goes over this number again, but it’s a good example of the fact that the Commanders, more often than not, look to Robinson at some point to try and establish an early-down presence.  

Add in the fact that Washington is likely to want to run the ball in spots just to keep the Eagles' vaunted pass rush from wrecking this game and I’m hard-pressed to find any fault with playing this over at +100, or better. 

With our projections having Robinson set around 10.0 carries, it’s one of my favorite straight props to take from the NFC title game. 

Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions 

  • Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 3.3

The Bills' passing game looks very limited from the outside looking in. Last game, the only TE or WR to see more than 2 targets was Khalil Shakir (7), who led all Bills receivers with 6 receptions and 67 yards. 

That said, perspective is everything in situations like this. The Ravens turned the ball over three times and trailed the entire game, which allowed the Bills to call a defensive and conservative game plan. It almost blew up in their face late, but Mark Andrews saved the day and the Bills won, 27-25. 

This week could be very different for the Bills. They’re road underdogs against a KC team that rarely gives games away and will likely force the Bills into more aggressive playcalling. That should mean players like Dalton Kincaid play a bigger role. Kincaid’s usage has been up and down all season, but he’s still caught 4 or more passes in 7 of 15 starts this season and will face a Chiefs defense that allowed 5.9 receptions to opposing TEs—the second-highest number in the league. 

Kincaid has also had success vs. the Chiefs in the past, going for 5 receptions in both games against them last season.

With the over offering odds of +100 or better, I’m fine taking a shot that the Bills' best pass-catching TE comes to life this week in an A+ matchup. 

Kareem Hunt Over 8.5 carries 

  • Odds: -102 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 

I played this prop last week and it came up one agonizing carry short, mostly thanks to the Texans having a blocked FG at the end of the game and the Chiefs going pass-heavy in the first half as they built their lead. The blocked FG allowed the Chiefs to play it safe and kneel/take a safety, rather than run Hunt, who took one carry on the final possession and then watched Patrick Mahomes kneel. 

Despite the low carry total, Hunt still vastly outperformed Isiah Pacheco in the game, taking 8 carries for 44 yards (and a TD)—while Pacheco managed just 18 yards on 5 carries. As of now, the veteran has outcarried his younger counterpart in four straight games and averaged 10.25 carries over his last four starts. 

We have Hunt projected for 9.0 carries this week, and if the Chiefs do get out in front I'd say there is every chance we may even see him approach 10+ carries, given both the weight of this game and how effective he was for them last week. 

As I mentioned in our Conference Championship best bets article, I also like the prices we’re getting on Hunt for an anytime TD, at +190 (DraftKings) – a bet I also logged in our Free NFL Bet Tracker. 

The bottom line is that Hunt is still being priced as a backup in both usage and TD markets, which has created some opportunities for betting. I’m all for staying on Hunt for one more week. We could see a lot more of him in this game should the Chiefs decide to use their more-effective back a little more after his solid outing vs. the Texans. 

Dyami Brown Under 3.5 receptions

Odds: +110 (DraftKings)

  • Projection: 3.3

Brown has established himself as one of the main tertiary targets for Jayden Daniels in the Commanders passing game. The fourth-year WR has now gone for 80+ yards in back-to-back starts and saw a season-high eight targets last week against the Lions. 

Despite the breakout, I’m all for fading Brown in this spot. The Commanders will be up against one of the best pass defenses in the league, a group that held Puka Nacua last week to just 6 catches, despite him seeing 14 targets. Overall, the Eagles rank first in success rate vs. the pass this season and allowed just a 59% conversion rate on targets aimed at opposing WRs. 

Brown is also still just a cog in a very busy Commanders offense that includes a great passing-catching TE and RB combo in Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler. Brown is in danger of getting overtaken for work by Olamide Zaccheaus or Jamison Crowder, who both play similar roles to him. 

We have Brown projected for 3.2 receptions this week, which could be a tad low but with the under on his 3.5-reception total set at +110, there is some decent value in fading him in the reception market this week. 

Dallas Goedert Anytime TD 

  • Odds: +300 (DraftKings)
  • 2+ TDs +3400 (FanDuel)

We targeted an anytime TD prop with a TE last week vs. the Commanders and with some big prices available on Eagles starting TE Dallas Goedert, I’m prone to go back to the same bet this week. 

The Commanders allowed 8 TDs to opposing TEs in the regular season and 0.4 TDs per game, while Goedert—who posted a 35% target share last week—now has 3 TDs over his last seven games. 

Since returning from injury in Week 10, the Eagles TE has posted target shares of 20% or better in five games and has caught 4 or more passes in four of his last five games. 

With numbers like that, even in this Eagles run-first attack, Goedert’s anytime TD odds just seem too high this week. I like playing him down to +275 if need be and will also be taking a shot with his multi-TD prop, which is set at an astounding +3500 on bet365 and +3400 on FanDuel (as of this writing).Â