In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
 

Final Four Frenzy …

Just four teams remaining in the dance means our betting menu is shrinking faster than my IQ scrolling social media. That said, books do offer some interesting longshot specials that may not properly account for how small a slate this is, where anything can happen …


My Favorite Championship Sunday Specials:

Jalen Hurts, PHI—Most Passing Yards (+750)

James Cook, BUF—Most Rushing Yards (+1200)

Xavier Worthy, KC—Most Receiving Yards (+800)

DeVonta Smith, PHI—Most Receiving Yards (+950)

Dyami Brown, WAS—Most Receiving Yards (+1300)

Curtis Samuel—Most Receiving Yards (+13000) 👀

All Four Teams To Kick +2 FG (+1200)—My Personal Fave

Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BEST BETS

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • AFC Conference Championship: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
  • The New York Prop Exchange: Shakir’s Hips Don’t Lie

The Show Goes On …

Championship Sunday Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.

LEARN MORE

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

👀 We have a new 2025 NFL Mock Draft with Thor and Drumheller.

🏈 Since we’re in NFL Draft szn, how about a Senior Bowl preview?

🏆 It’s also awards season. Ian an Dwain break down Fantasy Football MVP as well as Utilization winners and the Sheeshies.

🏈 NFL Conference Championships Best Bets and Props. Time to tail Ulrich and LaMarca.

🍕 Is that Matthew McConaughey or Jake Trowbridge? Yes, football makes us hungry, too.

🔁 What does Saquon Barkley do for an encore? Ian’s RB Rankings say it’s going to be a repeat performance.

NFL Playoffs🏈💥—AFC Divisional Round Blitz

No. 2 Bills (13-4) at No. 1 Chiefs (15-2)

Sun. Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Total: O/U 47.5

Like two celestial bodies hurling toward each other at lightspeed on an inevitable crash course, it’s Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes in the NFL playoffs for the fourth time in five years. The first question is the most obvious—can the Bills finally circle the wagons and wrangle their first win?

I’ll spare you fine readers any more nerdy Lord Of The Rings references, but it’s crystal clear Buffalo’s fate is tied directly to Allen. Easily the most impactful and pivotal player on the field Sunday, it’s not like Allen shouldered the blame in those losses—a 99 passer rating, yielding 267.3 passing yards/game on +0.16 EPA/dropback and a 7:1 TD:INT ratio is hardly worthy of inspiring any finger-pointing. It’s just that no other hurdle in modern pro sports has proven more insurmountable than bouncing Patty Mahomes from the postseason. Save your snarky referee jokes for social media …

Don’t count the visitors out quite yet. Records were made to be broken. When these two teams met in Buffalo’s 30-21 Week 11 victory, perhaps KC’s defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo leaned too hard into a preventive style of two-high safeties into Cover-3 zones. Allen took whatever the defense would give him, operating efficiently underneath (image below) and then doing what he does best—taking off at just the right time by chipping in four first downs and a score with his legs. Notice Sean McDermott’s willingness to abandon all focus on the middle of the secondary as the Chiefs dropped a third DB deep into center field. I’ll get into how I think this impacts the game below (in the business, they call that a tease).

First off, all sorts of credit to the Chiefs for constantly finding ways to adapt and reinvent their approach without sacrificing anything in the win column. I say that because, honestly, I don’t know how they keep getting away with this.  Remember when they couldn’t be stopped? A far cry from this configuration, Kansas City’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards/play, yards/rush, and yards completion. Oh, and it’s not like they dink-and-dunked to set up deep shots—the Chiefs finished dead last in explosive play rate. Yes, even behind the Browns and Raiders! Yet somehow they keep the ball moving downfield, namely by converting more third downs than any other unit in the league. So while it’s not sexy, it works—kinda like me.

Could there be a better example of a head-scratching win from a spreadsheet perspective than last week’s 23-14 dub over Houston? The Chiefs didn’t just look unimpressive and get outgained, they posted a measly 4.2 yards/play on a 34% success rate—that isn’t supposed to win NFL playoff games! 

Tell it to Andy Reid, I guess…

There are no more famous (or expensive) last words than calling for an abrupt end to Kansas City’s dynastic run, but I just don’t see it Sunday. Buffalo dared KC to run last time out, dropping 8 at their highest clip of the season and I think we see something very similar again. If the Bills can jump ahead early and push the pace, I don’t think KC’s got the horsepower to keep up with a Bills team that outscored the entire league except for Detroit. LEAN: BUF +1.5

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BETTING ODDS

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Shakir’s Hips Don’t Lie

THE BET: Khalil Shakir O5.5 Receptions (+115) FanDuel

Come the toughest situations, I’m relying on teams to avoid getting cute and doing what they excel at. The Bills not only know what’s at stake, but they have to be aware Sunday’s is their best chance to finally scale Mount Mahomes from a roster talent perspective.

Including the postseason, Khalil Shakir led all Bills pass catchers in routes run while more than doubling any other Buffalo WR in targets, receptions, and yards. I mentioned the Chiefs' tendency to play back on defense to try and prevent deep shots, which should play to Shakir’s advantage. 

I don’t want to go so far as to say the Chiefs cannot defend the slot. It’s more the case that you can’t defend every square inch of the field and they just choose to allow their production underneath.

  • -92.2 Defensive EPA Allowed To Slot WR: Last
  • 9.6 Slot Receptions Allowed Per Game: Last
  • 100.1 Slot Receiving Yards Allowed Per Game: 31st

Shakir’s gone over this line in eight of his last 11 games, including both playoff games. Give me old reliable to occupy those soft spots behind the D-line …

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PLAYER PROPS