In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Week 4: The Good, the Bad, the (very) Ugly: Week 4 ended up as a mixed bag for me. There were some very solid plays (all of which I loaded in our FREE Bet Tracker), including a Kyren Williams anytime TD bet, a George Pickens over, and a +140 Dalton Kincaid SGP (receptions + yards) that paid off nicely on Sunday Night.
There were also some bets I’d rather forget (also loaded in our Bet Tracker)—like the Packers -2.0. Green Bay fumbled the bag in the first half before making the final score semi-respectable and saving a little of my dignity. It wasn’t great, but I’m still bullish on Green Bay and hope my futures on them come back to life later in the year.
Then there was my Kyle Pitts (3 targets, 0.0 receptions, 0.0 yards) over 34.5 yards bet; a play I was so bullish on that I also decided to invest in Pitts’ alternate lines at 50+/75+/100+ last week. Woof.
Look, I don’t know why Atlanta chose to use Pitts so sparingly against a team that just allowed 170 yards to a TE last week, or why Green Bay played like the 2008 Detroit Lions to start their game, but they did and it made any wager on Pitts or the Packers look like a horrendous decision last week.
The thing is, even though Green Bay and Pitts over were the wrong sides to be on, they were still just single bets, a couple of losses in a sea of 2024-25 wagers. So the message this week is simple, if you got pants last week in a couple of spots (like me), don’t forget about it but also don’t linger on for long either.
After all, the goal isn’t perfection but to end up with more than we did at the start of the year—and if we’re counting coin right now I did still manage to go 6-5 on props from Sunday to Monday thanks to DK Metcalf on MNF (take that Kyle 💪).
On to Week 5.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Crystal Ball Time: There’s Still Time To Buy In On The Commanders
- Bad Beats: The Falcons Do It Again
There’s Still Time to Buy In On The Commanders 🪖
by Geoff Ulrich
It’s Week 5. By the time we’re through the early slate of the games next Sunday, the season will officially be more than a quarter of the way complete. While a lot of what we thought we knew before the season began has been rebutted or turned on its head, the good news is that with four games in the bag for every team, we’re also now replete with some interesting data points; data that can help us make some decisions about which teams are worth wagering on (and which are worth wagering against) the rest of the way.
While I’ve been focusing in on single teams in these Tuesday columns, today I’m going a bit more broad with my stroke. With the help of Fantasy Life NFL Futures Tool, here are three Division futures bets I’m looking at making before Week 5 begins.
Washington Commanders: To Win the NFC East (+290; FanDuel)
At 3-1, the Commanders lead the NFC East by a full game over the Cowboys and Eagles. Further, they are currently favored by -3.0 (-170 on the ML) at home against a failing Browns team in Week 5. With Dallas currently +120 road underdogs (at Pittsburgh) and the Eagles on a bye, Washington could emerge from Week 5 with a two-game lead on both their rivals (albeit with the Eagles having a game in hand).
As you can see the market is still lukewarm on the Commanders’ chances, as they’re still as big as +290 on FanDuel to win the division.
The Commanders have obvious flaws (32nd in EPA/play on defense), but unlike the Eagles or Cowboys, they also have solid offensive depth and aren’t necessarily dependent on one single skill player—a fact illustrated beautifully in last week’s demolition of the Cardinals, which they achieved without Austin Ekeler, who had been one of their leading receivers to date.
If Jayden Daniels stays healthy the NFC East crown should come down to divisional matchups later in the season, and Washington is already a stout 1-0 in divisional games, thanks to a win against the Giants. With how banged up both Philadelphia and Dallas are, it’s even possible one or both of those teams simply fall too far behind, giving the Commanders an even easier path to taking the East.
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NFL Bad Beats Week 4: Falcons Do It Again, Jets Melt Down, and More
by Geoff Ulrich & Matt LaMarca
Welcome to the Week 4 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Geoff Ulrich and I, Matt LaMarca, dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL.
First off, I just want to say: This is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week, and trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose … especially on the bets we should have won!).
Week 4 wasn’t full of “bad beats” in the truest sense of the word. There were no real miraculous covers, no last-second disasters, and no massive swings in variance. That said, it’s not going to stop us from complaining!
LaMarca’s Bad Beat No. 1: Falcons Do It Again
Geoff touched on the Falcons in Week 3, and this week’s “bad beat” wasn’t entirely on them. No, I blame myself for losing this wager just as much as I blame Atlanta.
For starters, I broke my first rule of sports betting: Get the best of the number. I simply waited too long to lock in a play on the Falcons this week. I liked them when they were first announced as small home favorites vs. the Saints, but I didn’t decide to place my wager until Saturday night. It was at that point when Chris Olave’s status was still up in the air, and that was the final determining factor that got me to pull the trigger.
Of course, Olave ended up playing, so I gained absolutely nothing by making the play when I did.
Still, I had the Falcons at -2.5. With three being the most important key number in NFL betting, I didn’t think there was a huge difference between getting -1.5 and -2.5.
We all know what happened next. The Saints took a one-point lead with one minute left, but the Falcons ended up driving down for a game-winning Younghoe Koo field goal. Falcons win by 2; Matt loses by 0.5.
It’s just another example of why getting the best number is essential. The concept of “key numbers” is changing with the increased difficulty of extra points and coaches going for two with increased frequency. This game was ultimately a good, expensive reminder of why getting every point—not just key numbers—is vital.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🧐 Dwain McFarland released his Week 5 Utilization Report, which might be just the edge you need in the prop market.
🔮 Travis Hunter? Ashton Jeanty? Who’s winning the Heisman Trophy? Claudia and Thor break down the odds.
💰 Channeling his inner Nick Foles. It was a night to remember for Jared Goff, who paid off his +650 anytime TD odds in dramatic fashion.
🏈 The trifecta (George Costanza would be proud). Kenneth Walker made his way back from injury in a big way against Detroit.
🎰 In a game that was back and forth, here are some of the most-bet players in the Lions-Seahawks MNF shootout.
