Before Week 5 kicks off, Geoff Ulrich is here with a trio of NFL Division Winners Futures Bets to target …

By the time we’re through the early slate of the games next Sunday, the season will officially be more than a quarter of the way complete. While a lot of what we thought we knew before the season began has been rebutted or turned on its head, the good news is that with four games in the bag for every team, we’re also now replete with some interesting data points; data that can help us make some decisions about which teams are worth wagering on (and which are worth wagering against) the rest of the way.

Today I’m going a bit more broad with my stroke than I usually am. With the help of Fantasy Life NFL Futures Tool, here are three Division futures bets I’m looking at making before Week 5 begins.

NFC East Division Winner Futures Bet

Washington Commanders: To Win the NFC East (+290; FanDuel)

At 3-1, the Commanders lead the NFC East by a full game over the Cowboys and Eagles. Further, they are currently favored by 3.0 (-170 on the ML) at home against a failing Browns team in Week 5. With Dallas currently +120 road underdogs (at Pittsburgh) and the Eagles on a bye, Washington could emerge from Week 5 with a two-game lead on both their rivals (albeit with the Eagles having a game in hand).

 

As you can see the market is still lukewarm on Washington’s chances as they’re still as big as +290 on FanDuel to win the division.

The Commanders have obvious flaws (32nd in EPA/play on defense) but unlike the Eagles or Cowboys, they also have solid offensive depth and aren’t necessarily dependent on one single skill player—a fact illustrated beautifully in last week’s demolition of the Cardinals, which they achieved without Austin Ekeler, who had been one of their leading receivers to date.

If Jayden Daniels stays healthy, the NFC East crown should come down to divisional matchups later in the season, and Washington is already a stout 1-0 in divisional games, thanks to a win against the Giants. With how banged up both Philadelphia and Dallas are, it’s even possible one or both of those teams simply fall too far behind, giving the Commanders an even easier path to taking the East.

AFC South Division Winner Futures Bet

Indianapolis Colts: To Win the AFC South (+400; FanDuel)

I can hear exactly what is going on in your mind right now. Wait, didn’t the Colts just lose Anthony Richardson? Is this guy really telling me to bet on 39-year-old Joe Flacco? Is C.J. Stroud still in the league? Is a hotdog really a sandwich?

Yes, Sort of, No, and hell No.

Look, I won’t go as far as saying Flacco gives the Colts a better shot to win, but if he starts the next game or two, I won’t be disappointed.

Flacco was solid last season for the Browns going 4-1 in the regular season and while he posted somewhat comparable stats to former Colts backup Gardner Minshew (who went 7-6 with the Colts) in 2023, he also outperformed Minshew in a lot of key areas, including success rate and TD rate.

Flacco’s aggressiveness and downfield passing ability were on display again in Week 4 after he came in cold off the bench and threw for 168 yards and two TDs and helped Indianapolis stave off a wild Steeler comeback.

Regardless of which QB you side with, Richardson isn’t expected to miss much time and the schedule is also in the Colts’ favor, short-term, as their next three games include the following winnable matchups:

  • Week 5: on the road vs the Jaguars
  • Week 6: on the road vs the Titans
  • Week 7: at home vs the Dolphins

The Texans do have themselves a win over the Colts but they’ve looked far from world beaters to date and have games against Buffalo (Week 5) and Green Bay (Week 7) before these two teams square off again in Week 8. With the Colts being available at as big as 4-1, it’s a great time to buy in before the upcoming schedule potentially flips the division in their favor ahead of the Week 8 showdown with Houston.

AFC North Division Winner Futures Bet

Cincinnati Bengals: To Win the AFC North (+400; DraftKings)

This is by far the riskiest of the three plays in my eyes, but still one with merit. The Bengals come into Week 5 sitting at just 1-3 after they held on to beat the Panthers 34-24 and now have a massive divisional game against the Ravens coming up, who sit at 2-2. Even if they somehow win this game they’ll need to catch the Steelers, who took a step back last week but lead the AFC North with a 3-1 record.

The line in this week’s game has moved hard towards Baltimore after they demolished public favorite Buffalo, but the Bengals are still just +125 on the moneyline, a far cry from their current odds to win the division which are as big as +400 on DraftKings.

 

If Joe Burrow (6th in EPA/play) keeps playing like he has been, not only will the Bengals have a shot next week, but they’ll also have a chance to sweep division-leader Pittsburgh, whom they have games against later in the season. At +400, taking a stab with the Bengals in the futures markets now not only gives you a shot at bigger returns but also gets you better long-term leverage on a team that was as short as +1200 to win the Super Bowl before the regular season began.