Geoff Ulrich breaks down his top player prop bets for NFL Divisional Round.

We move on to the Divisional Round this week with four more games to choose from for props!

We had our third winning week in a row with the props going 3-2. We’re now 10-5 over the last three weeks—Shoutout to George Pickens for making his over on 3.5 receptions an easy win. 

With four massive games on the slate we still have a ton of opportunities to look to this week for props. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props did, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

Just like usual, you can find all my Divisional Round bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props…

A.J. Brown Over 4.5 receptions 

  • Odds: -145 (bet365)
  • Projection: 5.4

I get that the Eagles haven’t been passing much lately (21 attempts vs, the Packers), but this is just an insanely low line for a true Alpha WR1 like Brown. The Eagles' wideout wasn’t needed much in the Wild Card Round, where he chose to engage in some sideline reading that had people questioning his motivation, but that has likely only created a great buying opportunity for the Divisional Round. 

 

Brown had a 34% target share this season and went over 4.5 receptions in 10 of 18 games, including Week 12 vs. the Rams where he caught 6 of 7 passes. All-in-all, I see this as a great matchup for him once again.

The Rams' biggest weakness on defense might be their undersized corners who allowed Justin Jefferson to catch 5 passes last week for 58 yards, a line that likely would have been much bigger if he wasn’t working with a sack-prone QB (and a poor offensive line). For the season, tha Rams also ranked just 28th in EPA per play vs. the pass and I expect the combo of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offensive line will do a better job against the Rams and allow Brown a chance to post another big line. 

Bottom line, we have Brown projected for 7.7 targets and 5.4 receptions this week on Fantasy Life, so even at -135 (57% IP) I think this is a solid bet and would play up to -155 if need be. If this gets too short I’d also look to consider Brown’s over on yards, where we have him projected at 79.0 for the week. 

Amari Cooper Over 21.5 receiving yards  

  • Odds: -110 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 33
  • 40+ yards +260
  • 50+ yards +425
  • 50+ yards and a TD +1100

This is such an insanely low line for a player of Cooper’s talent-level. Has the veteran struggled at points this season? Absolutely. But even in the Bills' timeshare rotation of WRs, Cooper has still managed to stand out at multiple points since he joined the Bills, including in Week 17 when he caught all 3 of his targets for 56 yards and a TD. 

 

The Ravens' secondary has improved as the year has gone on, but they are still susceptible to big plays. They allowed another bigger-body downfield receiver in George Pickens to go for 5 catches, 87 yards, and a TD last week, and also gave up big plays downfield to Van Jefferson and Mike Williams∏—whose only catch went for 37 yards.

It’s hard to see the Bills not needing the same kind of downfield plays from their WR group in what projects to be a close, high-scoring game, and games like this are exactly why they acquired Cooper at the deadline in the first place. 

We have Cooper projected for 34 yards on Fantasy Life and while I’d feel good playing it up to 22.5, I also think there is value in some of his alternate lines this week as well. The weather may actually not be too bad for this game, and even if it is, there should be some opportunities for Cooper to make an impact. 

Kareem Hunt Over 8.5 carries 

  • Odds: -135 (bet365)
  • Projection: 9.4

It’s hard to say exactly how the Chiefs will divvy up carries this week between Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, but I’d be shocked if the veteran didn’t play a large role—and potentially even outsnap his younger counterpart. 

Even with Pacheco coming back to the fold late in the season, Hunt remained a vital part of this offense down the stretch, taking 13, 11 and 9 carries in his last three starts. While Hunt’s not the most efficient back, part of the reason the Chiefs have stayed with him is that Pacheco is still not displaying the same explosiveness he had pre-injury, as he comes in having averaged a paltry 2.71 YPC over his last three games. 

Hunt has also remained the preferred short down and distance (SDD) back for KC, which is an important point for usage props. 

Over his last two games he took 60% and 75% of the team's SDD carries, and also was the only KC RB to take an I5 (inside the 5-yard line) carry in Weeks 16 and 17. That kind of usage means carries can pile up fast when you’re constantly being brought in for one to two-yard gains. 

This line is still available at some books at 8.5 and I’d personally be OK playing it down to -150 if needed. As mentioned above, it just seems far more likely Hunt’s usage stays the same as it has been—or even increases vs. Houston—than decreases given the tough time Pacheco had down the stretch. 

Olamide Zaccheaus over 32.5 receiving yards 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 39

The Commanders surprised a lot of people last week by giving Dyami Brown a little more work vs. Tampa Bay and it paid off as he went off as he went for 5 catches, 89 yards and a TD on 5 targets. It was a great performance, but Brown’s totals have skyrocketed this week and he’ll up against a Lions defense that now has a week to watch tape on Brown and prepare. 

For betting purposes, the value has likely now shifted back to the Commanders' other slot receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, whose props are now 8-10 yards lower than they were last week. 

 

Despite being outgained by Brown, Zaccheaus still posted a better route rate (63% vs. 58%) and played more snaps than Brown (50 vs. 45) against Tampa. He also just has the better history of delivering in this offense, having gone for 35+ yards in four straight games between weeks 15-18. 

 

Add in the fact that Zaccheaus will be playing in a dome against a Lions defense that ranked just 23rd in yards per attempt—and allowed the most yards to opposing WRs this season—and you have a great environment for Zaccheaus to go over these low totals and pay off for bettors who stick with him. 

Sam LaPorta Anytime TD 

  • Odds: +145 (DraftKings)
  • 2+ TDs +1100 (BetMGM)

This Detroit-Washington game has all the makings of a classic shootout so I’m fine double-dipping with another offensive-minded prop for our final play. 

Lions TE Sam LaPorta had a rough start to the season, but he’s become a far more integral part of the Lions' offense down the stretch. LaPorta posted target shares of 20%, 23%, and 24% over his last three games and caught 4 TD passes over his last six games of the year as well. 

 

 

For his career as a Lion, LaPorta has now caught 17 TDs in 33 regular-season games (51% hit rate), and 18 TDs in 36 games, including playoffs (50% hit rate). Even with that kind of efficiency we can still get great anytime TD prices on LaPorta as big as +145 on DraftKings (40% implied odds). 

Given the matchup, I think there is some value in taking this a step further as well. Washington struggled covering opposing TEs in the red zone this season, allowing 8 TDs to the position, the fifth most in the league. 

Considering how well LaPorta has performed in this part of the field in this Lions offense (three multiple-TD games to date), I don’t think adding in a little multiple-TD bet at +1100 or better is that crazy this week.