We have finally made it to the postseason, but our work does not stop here. If anything, the lines are only getting sharper in the playoffs, so we’re going to have to work even harder in the early markets.

If you’re new to this article, the premise is simple: We’re looking to grab the best numbers that we can early in the week.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

Let’s dive into three early bets that have my attention for the Divisional Round.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Over 49.5

  • Current Total: 49.5 (-115; FanDuel)
  • Target Range: Over 51.5 or better

So far this postseason, we’ve seen the biggest over/under trends hold serve. The two indoor games — Packers-Cowboys and Browns-Texans — flew over the total, while the outdoor game went under.

Those trends have been pretty powerful. Since 2002, indoor overs have gone 33-17 ATS, while outdoor unders have gone 99-75-4. We’ll see what happens in the final three games, but the early results suggest that these trends haven’t lost their viability yet.

So, should we be looking for an under in San Francisco? I don’t think so. While Levi’s Stadium is technically outdoors, the elements are not going to be nearly as much of a factor as they would be elsewhere. There’s no chance for heavy precipitation like there was in Buffalo or Kansas City, and the temperature should be moderate.

Essentially, this is an indoor-style game; it just so happens to be played outdoors.

These two teams have also had no issues scoring the ball. The 49ers were undoubtedly the best offense in football during the regular season. They were first in EPA/play by a wide margin, second in yards per game, and third in points per game. Outside of one disastrous performance vs. the Ravens, Brock Purdy has operated at an MVP-level all year. And with essentially two full weeks off, this team should be as close to full strength as humanly possible.

The 49ers were 10-7 to the over during the regular season, including 5-3 in home games. The Packers’ win over the Cowboys during the Wild Card brought them to 11-7 to the over.

Jan 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) reacts after a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

If there were any doubters for Jordan Love and this Packers’ offense, they should be gone after Sunday’s performance. They were phenomenal against the Cowboys, racking up 415 yards of total offense and 48 points. They did benefit from some two turnovers, but the Packers’ offense rolled all game against a really good Cowboys’ D.

This is nothing new. Love has been one of the best quarterbacks in football over the second half of the year. He’s third in EPA + CPOE composite since Week 8, and the Packers are third in EPA/play offensively.

The only two teams that have been better? One is the Cowboys, who the Packers combined with for 80 points on Sunday. The other is the 49ers.

San Francisco’s defense is not nearly as good as their offense, and unlike Dallas, I expect them to be able to keep up with the Packers for the entirety of the game. This number is already moving up, so locking it in quickly should result in some positive expected value.

You can tail the over at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5 below!

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 46.5

  • Current Total: Under 46.5 (-110; DraftKings)
  • Target Range: Under 44.5 or better

This is the game of the week, with arguably the top two quarterbacks in football squaring off in the postseason. Everyone remembers the classic between the Chiefs and Bills in 2022, with Patrick Mahomes driving the Chiefs 44 yards for a game-tying field goal in just 13 seconds. The Chiefs would get the ball first in overtime and score a touchdown, which led to the overtime rules for the postseason being changed. 

Since then, the matchups between the Chiefs and Bills haven’t been nearly as exciting. They’ve still been quite competitive – with both games decided by four points or less – but the scoring has been turned way down. They combined for 37 points in their regular season matchup this season and 44 points in their regular season matchup last year.

Both of these offenses aren’t quite as high-flying as they were two years ago. The Chiefs have had a massive downgrade in offensive output this season, ranking just 11th in EPA/play. The Bills were without Gabe Davis in their win over the Steelers, who torched the Chiefs for 201 yards and four touchdowns in their playoff showdown two years ago.

The Bills have also displayed a much greater tendency to run the ball under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. They had a Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) of -9% or worse in three of their final four regular season contests, and they were at -3% in their first playoff contest.

Add in the fact that this is an outdoor playoff game in Buffalo, and the under makes a lot of sense. The early weather forecasts don’t look nearly as bad as they did last week, but it’s going to be frigid at a minimum.

Outdoor playoff unders went 2-1 in the Wild Card round, and they’re now 100-76-4 dating back to 2003. I like the potential for another low-scoring contest in Buffalo this week.

You can tail the under on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.0) at Detroit Lions

  • Current Line: Buccaneers +6.0 (-110; FanDuel)
  • Target Range: Buccaneers +4.5 or better

The Lions got a huge win over the Rams last week, their first playoff win since 1992. That’s long enough that a large portion of this fanbase hadn’t even been born yet. It’s hard to not feel good about what has happened with that franchise since hiring Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell.

As much as I don’t want to rain on their parade, I’m not sure the Lions deserved to win last week. The Rams outgained the Lions by nearly 100 total yards, and neither team had a turnover. The big difference was that the Rams failed to convert their three red zone opportunities into any touchdowns, while the Lions turned three red zone opportunities into 21 points.

The Lions were an elite redzone team during the regular season, converting 65.7% of their opportunities into touchdowns. That was the second-best mark in the league, trailing only the 49ers. That said, the Rams were eighth in that department. Redzone scoring fluctuates on a week-to-week basis, so we shouldn’t expect the Lions to be that much better than their opponent consistently.

Matthew Stafford

Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) following the victory against the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions’ defense remains a major question mark. They were torched by Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, with the latter setting the record for the rookie receiving yards in a postseason contest. Stafford had 367 passing yards in total, and he averaged 11.31 adjusted yards per attempt.

The Buccaneers don’t have the same caliber of offense as the Rams, but they’re still capable of taking advantage of the Lions’ secondary. Baker Mayfield had a major resurgence in his first year within Tampa Bay, ranking 12th in EPA + CPOE for the year. That’s actually a better mark than Stafford, who was merely 18th in that department.

Against a similarly weak Eagles’ defense on Monday, Mayfield finished with 337 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. He seems fully healthy at the moment, and when Mayfield has been at full strength this season, he’s been able to capitalize on advantageous matchups.

This number was briefly listed at 7.0 on DraftKings, but it was immediately gobbled up by the sharps. It’s now at 6.0 across most of the industry. There’s no real reason to rush and lock in a bet on Tampa Bay, especially with most of the spread bets siding with Detroit. I’m personally going to wait it out and hope this number trends back towards seven. If it doesn’t, I’m fine with locking in a play on Tampa at anything better than +4.0 before kickoff.

Early Betting Lines