As we forge through the NFL season, Matthew Freedman will continue to check in with his NFL Futures Bets thoughts on the market as a whole:

Week 9 is here. When the clock hits 0:00 in Monday Night Football, we will officially be halfway through the regular season. And that means now is a great time to look at the NFL futures market.

With updated team power ratings and Fantasy Life QB ATS values, I've projected out the remainder of the season and run 10,000 simulations.

Although I've been terrible with player props this year, I've been profitable with the larger team-level markets (spreads, moneylines, and totals).

  • Spreads: 34-25 (+5.99)
  • Totals: 15-17 (-3.64)
  • MLs: 8-7 (+1.55)

As a result, I feel good about my perspective on the various teams, my power ratings, and my win total projections and simulation outcomes.

If you want to see all my futures positions, check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, which is free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter. You can also see my previous thoughts on the futures market in my start-of-season breakdown and quarterpole breakdown.

2024 NFL Projected Win Totals

Here are my updated projected win totals for the 2024 NFL season as well as the current consensus market lines (via our Fantasy Life Futures Table) and the difference between the two.

TeamConsensusProjDiff
KC14.5140.5
DET12.512.8-0.3
BUF11.512.1-0.6
BAL11.511.40.1
WAS10.511.1-0.6
GB10.511-0.5
PHI11.510.90.6
PIT10.510.7-0.2
HOU11.510.60.9
MIN10.510.30.2
ATL10.510.20.3
LAC9.59.50
SF9.59.30.2
IND8.59-0.5
DEN8.58.8-0.3
ARI8.58.8-0.3
TB8.58.7-0.2
DAL8.58.50
SEA88.2-0.2
CHI8.580.5
CIN8.580.5
LAR7.57.9-0.4
NYJ6.56.6-0.1
MIA6.56.20.3
NO6.560.5
JAX65.90.1
NYG5.55.50
LV55.5-0.5
CLE5.55.20.3
TEN4.54.40.1
NE4.54.20.3
CAR3.52.80.7

As I said in my preseason win totals breakdown, this market is ideal for negative positions.

If I'm bullish on a team, I can bet on it to win the Super Bowl or its conference or division, so I rarely have (m)any positive positions in this market.

But if I'm bearish, the win total is one of my only options for betting against a team, so I have many unders in this market (at plus money).

Here they are, along with the line value I currently have relative to the consensus lines.

  • 49ers Under 11 Wins (+115): +1.5
  • Eagles Under 10.5 Wins (+132): -1
  • Texans Under 10.5 Wins (+105): -1
  • Jets Under 9.5 Wins (+132): +3
  • Bears Under 8.5 Wins (+140): +0
  • Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins (+100): +2.5
  • Browns Under 8.5 Wins (+120): +3
  • Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+140): +1.5
  • Titans Under 5.5 Wins (+190): +1
  • Patriots Under 4.5 Wins (+130): +0

I don't want to mush myself, but … I'm pleased with how the portfolio looks entering the second half of the season.

Based on my projections and the consensus lines, the following teams catch my eye.

Chiefs (7-0)

  • Best Odds: Under 14.5 (-110, DraftKings)
  • Projection: 14.0

On the one hand, the Chiefs aren't the best team in the league. I don't have them power ranked even within the top three (DET +6.75, BAL +6.5, BUF +6.5, KC +5.5). But I also don't feel like betting against the league's best HC/QB combo in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Eagles (5-2)

  • Best Odds: Under 11.5 (-115, BetMGM)
  • Projection: 10.9

I already have a position on the Eagles under, so I'm all set—but I think there's value at this number. HC Nick Sirianni just has the profile of a guy whose team could fall short of expectations, as it did last year (per Action Network).

  • Sirianni as Underdog: 6-9 ATS (-21.9% ROI) | 5-10 ML (-23.1% ROI)
  • Sirianni in Division: 7-11-2 ATS (-23.7% ROI) | 13-7 ML (-15.1% ROI)

If a coach underperforms week to week as an underdog and in division, I think it's likely his team will end up winning fewer games than the market expects over the course of the season.

Colts (4-4)

  • Best Odds: Over 8.5 (+137, BetRivers)
  • Projection: 9.0

Right now, we have a negative-hold market for the Colts.

  • Over 8.5: +137 (BetRivers)
  • Under 8.5: -135 (Caesars)

With the current odds, the sportsbooks are essentially paying us to take a position, which means that I'm tempted to bet on the over since my projection points that way and it's available at plus money.

Here's the thing: My projection assumes that QB Joe Flacco remains the starter for the rest of the season, and I doubt that's an assumption I can safely make.

So I haven't bet the Colts over yet … but I might. Then again, maybe I'll simply bet them in a market with more upside.

Saints (2-6)

  • Best Odds: Under 6.5 (+100, FanDuel)
  • Projection: 6.0

This projection doesn't make any short-term injury deductions after this week, and it assumes QB Derek Carr starts for the rest of the season. Even so, I still have the Saints comfortably under 6.5 wins.

HC Dennis Allen and Carr have a tendency to underperform in games they should win.

  • Allen as Favorite: 9-17-1 ATS (-32.2% ROI) | 15-12 ML (-16.4% ROI)
  • Carr as Favorite: 22-38-2 ATS (-27.9% ROI) | 35-27 ML (-11.7% ROI)

I'm tempted to add this to the portfolio … but I expect them to beat the Panthers in Week 9, so maybe I'll do it afterward at better odds.

Panthers (1-7)

  • Best Odds: Under 3.5 (-130, BetMGM)
  • Projection: 2.8

Here we have another negative-hold market.

  • Over 3.5: +140 (DraftKings)
  • Under 3.5: -130 (BetMGM)

If the sportsbooks are willing to pay me to bet against the Panthers, I'll do it. This year they've been the league's most profitable team to fade: Opponents are 7-1 ATS (66.2% ROI) and 7-1 ML (20.2% ROI).

NFL Futures - 2024 Super Bowl Bets

In August, the Chiefs were my official Super Bowl pick for the 2024-25 NFL season. I'm not trying to win a trophy for most original hot take. I'm trying to win money, and sometimes simplicity is smart.

Frankly, I've made too many Super Bowl bets on other teams, and if you gave me the option of having only my Chiefs position or my entire portfolio for this market I'd easily take the Chiefs.

Here's my current portfolio of Super Bowl positions, along with the odds I have in the bag and the best reasonable odds currently in the market.

  • Chiefs (+600, then added +475): +450 (FanDuel)
  • 49ers (+650): +1100 (DraftKings)
  • Ravens (+1000): +750 (DraftKings)
  • Lions (+1000): +650 (FanDuel)
  • Bills (+1200): +1000 (BetMGM)
  • Packers (+1900): +1600 (BetRivers)
  • Chargers (+4500): +5000 (DraftKings)

Given that I have current value on all my positions except for 49ers +650 and Chargers +4500, I'm happy with how this portfolio is trending … but I still wish I had invested only in the Chiefs.

What's the one thing these teams have in common? They all (in my opinion) have top-12 QBs and top-12 HCs. In the modern era, I think it's hard for a team to win a championship without that combination.

Here are some thoughts on a few of the lines currently available.

Lions (6-1)

  • Best Odds: +650 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: +415

I now have the Lions projected to finish with 12.8 wins and earn the No. 1 NFC seed. I ultimately believe the Chiefs will find a way to win a third straight championship—but the Lions have an easier path to the Super Bowl via the NFC, and of all the teams in the NFL I think they currently offer the most value in this market.

Bills (6-2)

  • Best Odds: +1000 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: +646

QB Josh Allen is playing the best football of his life with a league-low 0.4% INT rate and a career-high 9.0 AY/A. With this version of Allen, the Bills can beat anybody.

Steelers (6-2)

  • Best Odds: +3300 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: +2504

I 50% wish I'd bet this a month ago when it was +5000 (BetMGM). QB Russell Wilson and HC Mike Tomlin have separately won a Super Bowl, and EDGE T.J. Watt might be the league's best defensive player.

That said, 100% of me doesn't want to bet on this team. I can see them making the postseason and covering as an underdog against a top-tier team in the Divisional Round—but I can't imagine the Steelers actually winning the Super Bowl.

Colts (4-4)

  • Best Odds: +17500 (Caesars)
  • Projection: +5997

I mean … QB Joe Flacco has won a championship before, and HC Shane Steichen has called plays for a Super Bowl offense. Wilder things have happened. If Flacco keeps the starting job, and my projection assumes that he will, then this line could offer outsized value. 

At 175-1, the Colts have a 0.57% implied probability to win it all (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think their true odds are probably around 1.5%. That might not sound like much, but on the tails an edge like this could result in a massive payout. I can't believe I'm doing this … but I'm adding this position to the portfolio.

2024 Awards Bets

Sometimes an awards bet is just about the player. Other times, it's a derivative way of investing in that player's team.

Here are some brief thoughts (along with my bets and current best reasonable odds) for the awards markets that most intrigue me right now.

Most Valuable Player

I can't believe I'm saying this … but Jayden Daniels (+1600, DraftKings) intrigues me as an MVP candidate. The Commanders are +700 to earn the No. 1 NFC seed. They're 6-2 and in a mediocre division. With a little luck, they could get a postseason bye. If that happens, it's likely that Daniels—who is No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.193, per RBs Don't Matter)—will have an MVP-caliber campaign and be the story of the 2024 season. If the Commanders are priced correctly at 7-1, then Daniels is almost certainly mispriced at 16-1 in the MVP market.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

As long as he doesn't suffer an injury that costs him more than three games, Daniels should win this award. If, however, Daniels were to miss a deleterious amount of time to injury, then QB Bo Nix (+1500, BetMGM)—and not QB Caleb Williams (+1000, FanDuel)—would likely be the player I'd back.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Verse is the current frontrunner, but this award is still wide open. DT Byron Murphy (+3000, ESPN Bet) stands out the most among the other viable candidates because he's a first-rounder who gets significant playing time. With a big game (multiple sacks), Murphy could find himself closing in on Verse.

Offensive Player of the Year

Justin Jefferson (+700, FanDuel) stands out. In 2022, he won the award with a league-best 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving—and then in 2023 he had even more yards on a per-game basis (107.4). He currently has 646 receiving yards in seven games, and with a big performance, he could be right back in the league lead. RBs Derrick Henry (+150, BetRivers) and Saquon Barkley (+380, FanDuel) are his primary competitors for this award—and RBs are likelier than WRs to get injured and break down, especially older veterans.

Defensive Player of the Year

I don't have a position in this market, but I'm considering DT Chris Jones (+1600, ESPN Bet). If the Chiefs finish with the No. 1 AFC seed (-290, DraftKings), award voters could look to honor and acknowledge someone on the team other than QB Patrick Mahomes, who has been mediocre this year with a career-worst 6.3 AY/A. A back-to-back All-Pro who finished No. 3 in DPOY voting two years ago, Jones is one of the best defenders in the league.