With the Chiefs-Ravens season opener and Eagles-Packers Brazilian kickoff in the books, Week 1 is officially here.
But there's still time to place some futures bets before the bulk of Week 1 is played, so here's an overview of how I see the season going for various teams and the futures bets that I've made so far (all logged in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, which is free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter).
2024 NFL Projected Win Totals
Here are my projected win totals for the 2024 NFL season, entering Week 1.
| Team | Freedman Proj |
| KC | 11.7 |
| SF | 10.9 |
| BAL | 10.9 |
| DAL | 10.8 |
| DET | 10.8 |
| CIN | 10.6 |
| MIA | 10.1 |
| GB | 10.1 |
| BUF | 10.0 |
| PHI | 9.9 |
| NYJ | 9.7 |
| ATL | 9.5 |
| LAC | 9.4 |
| HOU | 9.3 |
| LAR | 9.1 |
| CHI | 8.5 |
| JAX | 8.1 |
| CLE | 8.1 |
| IND | 8.1 |
| SEA | 8.0 |
| PIT | 7.9 |
| TB | 7.5 |
| NO | 7.5 |
| LV | 7.1 |
| ARI | 7.1 |
| WAS | 6.7 |
| MIN | 6.6 |
| NYG | 6.5 |
| DEN | 5.6 |
| TEN | 5.5 |
| CAR | 5.3 |
| NE | 4.9 |
As I've noted in my recent win totals breakdown, I think this market is best leveraged for negative positions.
If I like a team, I can bet on it to win the Super Bowl or its conference or division, as those bets usually offer longer odds. So I usually don't have (m)any positive positions in this market.
But if I dislike a team, the win total is one of my only options for betting against it—and so I have a number of negative positions in this market … and they're all at plus money.
Here they are.
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- 49ers Under 11 Wins: +115 (Caesars)
- Eagles Under 10.5 Wins: +132 (Caesars)
- Jets Under 9.5 Wins: +132 (FanDuel)
- Bears Under 8.5 Wins: +140 (BetMGM)
- Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins: +100 (DraftKings)
- Browns Under 8.5 Wins: +120 (bet365)
- Raiders Under 6.5 Wins: +140 (Caesars)
- Titans Under 5.5 Wins: +190 (Caesars)
- Patriots Under 4.5 Wins: +130 (BetMGM)
May the gods of gambling look kindly upon my pessimism.
2024 Super Bowl Bets
It's not sexy to say that the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. Again. But let's be honest. That's probably happening.
I'm not trying to be a hero. I'm trying to make money.
So the Chiefs are my official Super Bowl pick for the 2024-25 NFL season: They just beat (and covered against) the Ravens on Thursday night, they have my highest projected win total, they have QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid, and they probably still have a top-eight defense.
They're the obvious pick.
But it's not as if we need to confine ourselves to just one bet. We can build a portfolio with various positions, so here are the five Super Bowl bets I have right now.
- Chiefs: +600 (FanDuel)
- 49ers: +650 (BetRivers)
- Ravens: +1000 (DraftKings)
- Packers: +1900 (DraftKings)
- Chargers: +4500 (DraftKings)
I might add to the portfolio as the season progresses and potential value opportunities present themselves, but right now I'm happy to have these tickets in hand.
In my opinion, what's the common thread binding all these bets: All five of these teams have top-12 QBs and top-12 HCs. In the modern era, I think it's hard for a team to win a championship without that combination.
2024 Awards Bets
Sometimes an awards bet is just about the player: I think he's going to have a big season, so instead of betting his overs in the season-long prop market, I'll bet on him to win an award.
If you're a serious sports speculator, you can access my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.
In many instances, though, I tend to view awards bets as derivatives of team positions.
So if I like a team, maybe I'll bet it to win the Super Bowl or division—but maybe it will make more sense to bet on an individual on that team to win an award at longer odds in a highly correlated market.
So some of my awards bets are of the "I like this player" variety, but most are in the "If this team does well, then this player will probably have a big year" vein.
Most Valuable Player
- Jalen Hurts: +1400 (DraftKings)
- Tua Tagovailoa: +2500 (DraftKings)
Coach of the Year
- Jim Harbaugh: +1100 (BetRivers)
- Dave Canales: +2000 (Caesars)
Offensive Player of the Year
- Bijan Robinson: +2000 (BetMGM)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Jayden Daniels: +650 (FanDuel)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Jared Verse: +1100 (BetMGM)
2024 Longshots
I bet to try to win money … but you gotta have a little fun, right?
Here are a couple of my favorite longshots for the 2024 season.
- Tank Dell to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards: +10000 (BetRivers). When he and WR Nico Collins were both healthy last year, Dell had more targets.
- Cardinals to Earn No. 1 Seed: +10000 (Caesars). If QB Kyler Murray is +5000 to win MVP, then the Cardinals can't be +10000 to have the top record in their conference. That doesn't make mathematical sense.
2024 Boring Bets
I'm a human wet blanket. The boring is my default milieu.
Here are a few unremarkable bets I like for the season.
- 49ers to Win NFC West: -190 (Caesars)
- Derrick Henry to Lead NFL in Rushing TDs: +700 (BetRivers)
- Christian McCaffrey to Lead NFL in Rushing TDs: +750 (FanDuel)
Henry getting a TD on Thursday night was nice to see, and I already have a bet on McCaffrey to score a TD in Week 1. (#CMCATDSZN)
Check out my Week 1 props piece for the rest of my favorite player positions this weekend.
