We're roughly a quarter of the way through the NFL season, so now feels like a good time to look at the futures market and see what stands out, and if there are any NFL futures bets to make ahead of Week 5.
With that in mind, I've updated my team power ratings and our Fantasy Life QB ATS Table and used those to project out the remainder of the season and run 10,000 simulations.
While I've been absolutely terrible on player props to open the year, I've been solid on the larger team-level markets (spread, moneyline, and total), so I feel good (enough) right now about my read on the various organizations and how that's reflected in the power ratings. As a result, I feel good (enough) about most of what I'm seeing in my win total projections and simulation outcomes.
If you want to see all my futures positions, check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, which is free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.
2024 NFL Projected Win Totals
Here are my updated projected win totals for the 2024 NFL season as well as the current consensus market lines (via our Fantasy Life Futures Table) and the difference between the two.
| Team | Consensus | Proj | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 13 | 13.1 | 0.1 |
| MIN | 11.5 | 11.3 | -0.2 |
| BUF | 11.5 | 11.3 | -0.2 |
| BAL | 10.5 | 11.1 | 0.6 |
| DET | 10.5 | 11.1 | 0.6 |
| SF | 10.5 | 10.2 | -0.3 |
| HOU | 10.5 | 9.7 | -0.8 |
| GB | 9.5 | 9.7 | 0.2 |
| DAL | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0 |
| NYJ | 8.5 | 9.5 | 1 |
| PIT | 9 | 9.5 | 0.5 |
| SEA | 9.5 | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| PHI | 10.5 | 9.4 | -1.1 |
| ATL | 9.5 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| WAS | 9 | 9.2 | 0.2 |
| LAC | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 |
| NO | 9.5 | 8.9 | -0.6 |
| TB | 8.5 | 8.8 | 0.3 |
| CIN | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| IND | 8 | 8.3 | 0.3 |
| CHI | 7.5 | 7.3 | -0.2 |
| LAR | 6.5 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| LV | 6.5 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| DEN | 6.5 | 7.1 | 0.6 |
| ARI | 7 | 6.8 | -0.2 |
| JAX | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| NYG | 5.5 | 5.9 | 0.4 |
| CLE | 6 | 5.9 | -0.1 |
| NE | 5.5 | 5.7 | 0.2 |
| CAR | 5.5 | 5.4 | -0.1 |
| TEN | 6 | 5.4 | -0.6 |
| MIA | 7.5 | 5.1 | -2.4 |
As noted in my preseason win totals breakdown, I think this market is best leveraged for negative positions.
If I like a team, I can bet on it to win the Super Bowl or its conference or division, as those bets usually offer longer odds. So I usually don't have (m)any positive positions in this market.
But if I dislike a team, the win total is one of my only options for betting against it—and so I have a number of negative positions in this market, all at plus money.
Here they are, along with the line value I currently have relative to the consensus lines.
- 49ers Under 11 Wins (+115): +0.5
- Eagles Under 10.5 Wins (+132): +0
- Jets Under 9.5 Wins (+132): +1
- Bears Under 8.5 Wins (+140): +1
- Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins (+100): +2
- Browns Under 8.5 Wins (+120): +2.5
- Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+140): +0
- Titans Under 5.5 Wins (+190): -0.5
- Patriots Under 4.5 Wins (+130): -1
Overall, the gods of gambling seem to be looking kindly upon my pessimism.
Given my current projections and the consensus lines, here are some teams that have my attention.
Ravens (2-2)
Despite being only .500, they're still on pace to exceed their preseason and current win total of 10.5. I expect them to continue to improve as the season progresses.
Texans (3-1)
Oh baby. Never let anyone tell you that markets are efficient. Here are two lines currently available on the Texans win total.
- Over 10.5: +100 (DraftKings)
- Under 10.5: +105 (BetMGM)
In this negative-hold market, the sportsbooks are essentially paying us to make a bet on the Texans.
If I didn't have a lean on the team, I'd be fine simply betting both sides and taking the five cents of profit … but I do have a lean. Although they're currently the only winning team in their division, the Texans have lost 1.25 points from their power rating since the season started, and they now have a decent projection to the under (9.7).
Given that I can add a position at plus money, I'm doing it.
Jets (2-2)
The Jets have lost a full win from their market total over the past month … but I still have them projected to hit their preseason total of 9.5. We'll see how they look in London this weekend against the hot Vikings, but I might be interested in buying the Jets in "upside" markets—to win the Super Bowl or AFC, for instance—since the market looks low on them.
Eagles (2-2)
This team could easily be 0-4. I love my preseason position of under 10.5 (+132), and—given their projection of 9.4 wins—I think under 10.5 still offers great value at -110 (BetMGM).
Titans (1-3)
I assume QB Will Levis will still be the starter after the Week 5 bye … but he's currently the league's lowest-rated ATS QB (-2.8) relative to his backup (veteran Mason Rudolph). I feel decent about having the Titans projected for 5.4 wins, but that will change if HC Brian Callahan benches Levis.
Dolphins (1-3)
Without QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion, IR), the Dolphins have a league-low -6 power rating. Their current projection of 5.1 assumes that Tagovailoa won't play again this season—and that's probably not a safe assumption to make given that he intends to return to action. So this is the one win projection I'd advise you to take lightly.
That said … concussion recoveries are uncertain, Tagovailoa is not currently on the field, and his injury history complicates everything.
I imagine the Dolphins will win more than 5.1 games, but I also strongly believe they'll win fewer than 7.5.
2024 Super Bowl Bets
Entering the season, the Chiefs were my official Super Bowl pick for the 2024-25 NFL season, and even with all the injuries they've suffered their 4-0 record gives them a good chance to earn the No. 1 AFC seed, which in turn makes their postseason path relatively easy.
With their projection of 13.1 wins, they're still one of the league's best teams.
Here's my current portfolio of Super Bowl positions, along with the odds I have in the bag and the best reasonable odds currently in the market.
- Chiefs (+600): +500 (DraftKings)
- 49ers (+650): +650 (Caesars)
- Ravens (+1000): +850 (Caesars)
- Packers (+1900): +2500 (DraftKings)
- Chargers (+4500): +6600 (BetMGM)
Some good and some bad—but I generally still believe that all five of these teams have top-12 QBs and top-12 HCs. In the modern era, I think it's hard for a team to win a championship without that combination.
Here are some other positions worth noting.
Vikings (4-0)
- Best Odds: +1600 (DraftKings)
- My Projection: +1433
I now have the Vikings projected to finish with 11.3 wins and earn the No. 1 NFC seed. And that makes them an intriguing bet to win the Super Bowl.
Bills (3-1)
- Best Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: +937
All apologies to everyone else, but QB Josh Allen is probably the best football player alive right now.
Saints (2-2)
- Best Odds: +4000 (Caesars)
- My Projection: +3687
Theoretical value … but I'm still lower on them (8.9) than the win total market (9.5), and I doubt a team led by HC Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr—both of whom serially underperform as ATS favorites—can actually win a title.
Steelers (3-1)
- Best Odds: +5000 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: +3233
I don't think the Steelers are good—but I guess they're good enough to be favored by -2.5 at home against my Cowboys this weekend. HC Mike Tomlin's season-long non-losing voodoo magic always gives his team a chance to make the postseason, and then in the playoffs a defense led by EDGE T.J. Watt always has a chance to pull off an upset.
Seahawks (3-1)
- Best Odds: +4000 (DraftKings)
- My Projection: +3446
The Seahawks are top-eight in offensive success rate (48.0%) and defensive success rate (38.7%, per RBs Don't Matter). That's not nothing.
2024 Awards Bets
Sometimes an awards bet is just about the player. Other times, it's a derivative way of investing in that player's team.
Here are some brief thoughts (along with my bets and current best reasonable odds) for the MVP and Rookie of the Year markets.
Most Valuable Player
- Jalen Hurts (+1400): +3000 (BetMGM)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+2500): +40000 (ESPN Bet)
I'm currently intrigued by Sam Darnold (+1300, ESPN Bet) and Brock Purdy (+1400, DraftKings). Darnold's team is pacing for the No. 1 seed, and he's No. 1 in the NFL with a 9.6 AY/A. That combination usually results in an MVP. And Purdy is having another great season (9.3 AY/A)—this time without RB Christian McCaffrey.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Jayden Daniels (+650): -179 (Caesars)
As long as Daniels doesn't suffer an injury, this award is almost certainly his. He leads all QBs with an 82.1% completion rate, 17% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and 0.248 EPA + CPOE.
At -179, Daniels has a 64.2% implied probability to win OROY (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds might be as high as 80%.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Jared Verse (+1100): +300 (DraftKings)
Verse is the current frontrunner, but this award is still wide open. Given his talent and situation, Dallas Turner (+1200, DraftKings) is worth thinking about. The Vikings are 4-0 in large part because of their defense, and Turner could have abundant sack opportunities playing alongside and rotating in with EDGEs Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel in a swarming defense that figures to play a significant amount of time with a lead.
