Pick’em contests – where you pick the winner of each game every week (and sometimes it's just on an old-school slip of paper… and oftentimes “confidence points” are attached)  – remain a popular way to compete against your friends without having to jump directly into the deep end of sports betting.

For those of you who love odds and spreads, we have you covered. 

Each week, Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca will walk you through our favorite ways to approach these contests. Which games should you eat the chalk? Where should you look for leverage? And which trendy upsets should you avoid?

Let’s dive into all 16 games for Week 1.

Ravens at Chiefs

LaMarca: Ravens (5/10 confidence rating). This is a game where I’m happy to play for an upset. Lamar Jackson is 12-1 ATS as an underdog, and if they’re going to cover the three-point spread vs. the Chiefs, they’re likely going to have to win the game outright. This is also a bit of a revenge spot after losing in the AFC Championship game to the Chiefs last season, so I expect to see a big effort out of Baltimore.

Geoff: Chiefs (5/10). It’s Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore is great but they do have a new DC andnew RB  Derrick Henry may take time to adjust to the system. KC’s roster is better this year. I’m not making this my top pick but yes, I think the Chiefs prevail. 

Packers at Eagles

LaMarca: Eagles (4/10). I’m bullish on Philly this year and the Packers are a “trendy” upset pick I’m looking to avoid. Jordan Love was phenomenal down the stretch last season, but we’re talking about a sample size of less than 10 games. Give me the long-term track record of Jalen Hurts and company.

Geoff: Packers (7/10). The Packers may be the most underrated team in the league and Jordan Love played like an MVP down the stretch last year. They also have a new DC who should be a vast improvement over last season. I’m taking the underdog in this one and with a decent degree of confidence. 

Follow Matt and Geoff's best bets all season in our free Bet Tracker tool. 

Steelers at Falcons

LaMarca: Falcons (5/10). The Steelers are an elite ATS team under Mike Tomlin, but with this line moving to 3.5, the sharps seem to like the Falcons. I still might take the Steelers to cover, but the Falcons are most likely to win the game outright.

Geoff: Falcons (6/10). We’re in lockstep here. I think the Steelers make this close but the Falcons eventually rule the day with Kirk Cousins playing hero. Lower confidence but like the dirty birds. 

Jaguars at Dolphins

LaMarca: Dolphins (7/10). The Dolphins have one of the best home-field advantages in football in September, when their opponents have to wear dark jerseys and bake in the Miami sun. Jacksonville is also a prime fade candidate for me in 2024.

Geoff: Dolphins (9/10). The Jaguars went 3-6 SU against playoff teams last year. They got blown out by the likes of Houston, Tampa Bay and the 49ers. The Dolphins are elite at home in September. Miami may win running away. 

Vikings at Giants

LaMarca: Giants (4/10). Anytime I can fade a chalky Sam Darnold, I’m pretty happy to do so.

Geoff: Giants (6/10). Nobody is a winner when Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones square off, but we need to pick someone. For what it’s worth, New York (as bad as they were last year) actually went 4-4 SU at home in 2023. 

Titans at Bears

LaMarca: Titans (5/10). The Caleb Williams hype train is full steam ahead, but rookie QBs are 2-18-1 straight up in the first three weeks of the season over their last 21 contests. I like the direction the Titans went with their coaching staff this offseason, so I think they can secure the upset.

Geoff: Titans (7/10). We both like the dog in this one. As LaMarca suggested, rookies are prone to fail in Week 1 (high expectations, lines overheated etc). Tennessee’s revamped roster is legit. Get ready to pour the Mayo. 

Panthers at Saints

LaMarca: Saints (4/10). I don’t have a great feel for this contest, so I’m just going to take the favorite. The Panthers will likely be better than they were last year, but they’re still probably going to be pretty bad.

Looking for help with your survivor pool? We have you covered with our Week 1 analysis. 

Geoff: Saints (8/10). I dislike taking any Dennis Allen team but I also feel like the Panthers simply don’t have the roster to be competitive. I’m sure Derek Carr makes this more interesting than it needs to be but the Saints still have a quality defense and a new OC in Klint Kubiak who should increase the offensive efficiency. If he does, then the Saints will likely win most of their games against weak opponents this year.  

Cardinals at Bills

LaMarca: Bills (8/10). Even if Buffalo is a bit down this season, Josh Allen and company should still take care of business at home vs. the Cardinals.

Geoff: Bills (7/10). I could see Arizona pulling the upset, but a back door cover where the Bills still win thanks to Josh Allen being Josh Allen makes the most sense. Buffalo does scare me, however, as they didn’t look great in preseason and no longer have an elite No. 1 WR. 

Patriots at Bengals

LaMarca: Bengals (10/10). The Patriots are going to be the worst team in football, while the Bengals could be one of the best. This is the biggest mismatch of Week 1.

Geoff: Bengals (10/10). I don’t care if Ja’Marr Chase plays or not. The Bengals should roll here. 

Texans at Colts

LaMarca: Colts (6/10). I’m all in on Indy in 2024. Starting the year with a home win over the defending division champs would be a great way to start their campaign.

Geoff: Texans (6/10). I like the Colts, but Anthony Richardson still lacks NFL experience, and that likely bites them in the end. The Texans are a well-rounded squad, led by an elite pocket-passing QB. 

Broncos at Seahawks

LaMarca: Seahawks (9/10). New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has an elite matchup to put his passing attack on display. 

Geoff: Seahawks (9/10). I’m in on Seattle this season in general. It’s a little scary that we have a rookie head coach vs a veteran in Sean Payton (who has a great W/L record) but Seattle’s roster is miles better. 

Raiders at Chargers

LaMarca: Chargers (7/10). The Raiders performed admirably under Antonio Pierce last season, but their production was very fluky. The Jim Harbaugh era should start with a win.

Geoff: Chargers (7/10): I’ll take the Chargers in this spot, as well. Harbaugh is a solid coach who has a 69% career win rate in the NFL. Pierce is saddled with the worst QB room in the league. 

Cowboys at Browns

LaMarca: Browns (2/10). The sharps like Cleveland in this spot, pushing the line from +1.5 at opening to -2.5 currently.

Geoff: Cowboys (4/10). Cleveland ran so pure in FG games last season. All told, these teams both have elite defenders but the Cowboys have the better QB/WR combo. I think it’s enough to eek out a Week 1 win. 

Commanders at Buccaneers

LaMarca: Commanders (7/10). Jayden Daniels’ rushing upside should help him avoid the rookie learning curve, and the Buccaneers are primed for regression after last year’s nine-win campaign.

Geoff: Commanders (4/10). I’ll take a rookie in this spot. Todd Bowles has a career winning % of 42%. Washington has a veteran head coach and made a complete roster overhaul this spring. Jayden Daniels’ explosiveness will keep the game close and potentially tip the scales in Washington’s favor. 

Rams at Lions

LaMarca: Lions (4/10). I really like both of these squads, but Detroit is the more complete team. Their defense has the chance to be greatly improved this season.

Geoff: Rams (5/10). I’ll take the Rams in Week 1, where Sean McVay is 6-1 for his career ATS. The Rams could have knocked off Detroit last playoffs with better clock management and added some key pieces during the offseason. 

Jets at 49ers

LaMarca: 49ers (3/10). I’m bullish on the Jets, but the 49ers have arguably the best roster in the entire league. With Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams officially locked up, they should be at full strength in Week 1.

Geoff: Jets (2/10). What a spot for Aaron Rodgers. Coming back from an achilles injury at age 40 and with a chance to knock off a top 3 team in the league in his second season with the Jets. The 49ers won’t make it easy (it never is) but they have had a lot of holdouts and missed practices during training camp. The Jets roster is solid on both sides of the ball and Rodgers can be the difference maker.