Here at Fantasy Life, we support scratching your NFL itch in whatever way possible. For some people, that might be betting on spreads. However, that’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

Instead, some people might enjoy picking games without the spread. Pick’em contests—where you simply pick the winner of each game each week—remain a popular way to compete against your friends without having to dive headfirst into the world of sports betting.

Each week, Geoff Ulrich and myself are going to walk you through our favorite ways to approach these contests. Which games should you eat the chalk, where should you look for leverage, and which trendy upsets should you avoid?

Let’s dive into all 14 games for Week 5.

Buccaneers at Falcons

LaMarca: Falcons (2/10 confidence). This should be a fun one. The Falcons have played nothing but close games this season, while the Buccaneers’ offense has been phenomenal. That said, I still think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC South, so I’ll back them to get the job done at home.

Geoff: Falcons (3/10). The Buccaneers have been solid but they also benefited from playing a depleted Eagles squad and got beat soundly by Denver two weeks ago. The Falcons' secondary (10th in yards per attempt against) should limit big plays and force Baker Mayfield to hang in the pocket more, a scenario that also led to his downfall against the Broncos. Look for the Falcons' rushing attack to get going against a poor Buccaneers rush defense and for Atlanta to squeeze out another win. 

Jets at Vikings

LaMarca: Vikings (3/10). This feels like a “buy-low, sell-high” spot, with the Jets being at an all-time low and the Vikings being at an all-time high. That said, I just can’t do it. I simply like this Vikings team too much, which continues to exceed expectations on a weekly basis.

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Sep 15, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) reacts after the game against the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Geoff: Vikings (4/10). I want to take the Jets in this spot but it just feels like the wrong time to do so. There is too much confusion on offense to trust that they get it together this week and put up points against this Brian Flores-led defense. Sam Darnold gets his revenge this week and the Vikings go to 5-0. 

Dolphins at Patriots

LaMarca: Patriots (2/10). The Dolphins basically can't be trusted until Tua Tagovailoa returns to the lineup. The Patriots aren’t any better, but at least they’re at home and not on a short week.

Geoff: Dolphins (3/10). The Patriots just lost center David Andrews for the season, which is a massive blow to an already failing O-line. Add in the fact that the Dolphins are coming off the most embarrassing loss of the Mike McDaniel era and will have another week to integrate Tyler Huntley as starter, and I think you’ll see Miami rebound this week. If they don’t, you may want to consider betting McDaniel in the first-coach-to-be-fired market. 

Panthers at Bears

LaMarca: Panthers (5/10). The Panthers are underdogs here, but I expect them to pull off the upset. They invested heavily in their offense this offseason, and that’s paying dividends now that they have a real quarterback. They’ve averaged 30 points per game with Andy Dalton under center, and while the Bears are coming off a win, it was another unimpressive showing from their offense.

Geoff: Panthers (4/10). I’m on the underdog train in this one as well. The Bears got by a Rams team that was without their top two WRs and top two cornerbacks, but hardly made it look easy in their Week 4 win. Caleb Williams is only throwing screen passes and the Bears’ run game is easy enough to shut down, even for a team like Carolina. Look for Chuba Hubbard to post his third big game in a row and Dalton to lead the Panthers to another upset win. 

Colts at Jaguars

LaMarca: Colts (4/10). I would feel more confident in the Colts if I knew Joe Flacco was going to be at quarterback. He’s clearly better than Anthony Richardson at this point in time. Still, whoever is under center should be able to beat a Jaguars squad that is on the verge of collapse. One more loss, and Doug Pederson should start updating his resume.

Geoff: Colts (5/10). I’m not sure I care as much about who starts this game at QB for the Colts as LaMarca does, but I do share his sentiment of wanting to fade the Jaguars. Jacksonville looks like a team full of fat contracts and players who have tuned out their head coach. The Colts have improved on defense the last two weeks and their defensive line should be able to get to Trevor Lawrence, who is terrible under pressure. 

Bills at Texans

LaMarca: Texans (2/10). The Texans are 0-4 ATS this season, but they’ve been significantly unlucky. They’re fourth in yardage differential through the first four weeks—so they’re consistently outgaining their opponents—but they’re just 24th in scoring differential. The Bills are a good team, but I’ll take the buy-low value on the Texans.

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Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman (0) makes a catch and scores a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Geoff: Bills (4/10). This has the potential to be a fun game. The Texans are ultimately lucky to be 3-1 right now and have not looked like an elite team to date, ranking just 14th in EPA per dropback and 21st in dropback success rate on offense. The Bills' defense should firm up after getting exposed in primetime and Josh Allen should rebound and do enough to get Buffalo the win. 

Ravens at Bengals

LaMarca: Bengals (4/10). The Bengals are slight underdogs in this matchup, but that’s when we’ve historically seen the best from Joe Burrow. This is an absolute must-win spot for them, and I think they ultimately get it done.

Geoff: Bengals (4/10). Joe Burrow is 7th in EPA per play among QBs and the Bengals have averaged 33.5 points over their last two games, yet Cincinnati is a 3.0-point underdog at home? The line in this game seems like an overreaction to the Ravens' throttling of Buffalo. Burrow and crew are due to win a close game, and they’ve looked more and more convincing as the weeks have gone by. 

Browns at Commanders

LaMarca: Commanders (7/10). In a week without a lot of big favorites, the Commanders stand out as one of my favorite straight-up winners. Their offense is an absolute wagon, ranking first in EPA per play, and they’ve punted only one time in their past three games. The Browns' defense represents a step up in competition, but they haven’t been nearly as good as they were last season.

Geoff: Commanders (6/10). No way am I fading Jayden Daniels, even if the Browns are the kind of team that could slow the Commanders down a little on offense. Washington has very underrated depth, which they showed off last week with Austin Ekeler out, and their defense gets a great matchup with Deshaun Watson, who is 29th in EPA per play among all qualifying QBs in 2024. 

Raiders at Broncos

LaMarca: Raiders (3/10). The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins against the Buccaneers and Jets, but I still don’t think they’re particularly good. The Raiders have an elite ATS record as underdogs under Antonio Pierce, so I’ll back them as small dogs in this matchup.

Geoff: Broncos (6/10). Look, no one is a winner in this one, especially not the fans buying tickets to see these two teams play. However, Denver should be able to run the ball with Javonte Williams in this spot against a terrible Raiders run defense (26th in EPA vs the run). The Raiders are also now mired in a Davante Adams trade controversy that looks set to derail their season. 

Cardinals at 49ers

LaMarca: 49ers (8/10). The 49ers are the biggest favorites of the week, but the Cardinals are getting some sharp action on the spread. That said, the 49ers absolutely steam-rolled weaker opponents last year, so they should be able to take care of business.

Geoff: 49ers (9/10). Brock Purdy (3rd in EPA per play among QBs) will go nuts this week. The Cardinals are now 29th in EPA per dropback and the 49ers have a fully healthy receiving corps. I’m sure Kyler Murray will get his garbage time points to make fantasy owners happy, but expect the 49ers to take this one running away. 

Giants at Seahawks

LaMarca: Seahawks (9/10). The only thing that keeps this from being a “10” is that the Seahawks are on short rest, and the Giants are on extra rest. Still, I don’t know how the Giants keep up with Seattle’s offense, especially if Malik Nabers is unable to suit up.

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Sep 30, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Eamon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Geoff: Seahawks (8/10). I normally try to avoid being bullish on teams who played in the previous week’s Monday Night game, but the mismatch is evident in this one. New York has such limited big-play ability that it’s going to allow the Seattle defense to stack the box and tee off on their receivers. I like the way the Giants' defense is playing, but they are also banged up in the secondary, which means another big week for DK Metcalf. 

Packers at Rams

LaMarca: Packers (5/10). Jordan Love had to shake off a little rust last week, but the offense made up a ton of ground on the Vikings in the fourth quarter. They’re still an excellent team, so expect them to put it together for a full game vs. the Rams.

Geoff: Packers (8/10). Everything went wrong to start the game last week for Green Bay, but they rallied late and put a scare into Minnesota, who managed to put things away with a solid drive in the 4th quarter. The Rams don’t have the weapons on offense that Minnesota does right now, so even if Love makes a few mistakes, Green Bay has far more margin for error this week. I could see Green Bay winning by margin if Love ups his efficiency, making them a solid survivor pick this week as well. 

Cowboys at Steelers

LaMarca: Steelers (6/10). The Steelers might not be as good as their record suggests, but I really like them in this spot vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has been a disaster this season, and now they’ll have to play without DeMarcus Lawrence and likely Micah Parsons.

Geoff: Steelers (4/10). I don’t expect the Steelers will make this easy, but the Cowboys have been horrific against the run (31st in rush EPA) and have shown limited explosive play ability on offense this season. Pittsburgh should get enough from the combo of Najee Harris and the ageless Cordarrelle Patterson (5.8 YPC on the season) to get their defense out in front and give them a chance to go after Dak Prescott. 

Saints at Chiefs

LaMarca: Chiefs (3/10). The injuries are piling up for the Chiefs, and I like the Saints to potentially cover the 5.5-point spread. However, the Chiefs can do what they’ve done for most of the past five years: keep things close and ultimately steal the game at the end.

Geoff: Saints (2/10). Picking against Patrick Mahomes in primetime, what can go wrong?! The Chiefs have played in four close games to start the season, and while they’ve gotten all the breaks to date, that won’t last forever. The Saints are doing something they couldn’t last year, which is run the ball effectively (5th in EPA per rush on offense) and should be able to move the ball and put the Chiefs in catchup mode at some point–where their lack of depth on offense will (finally) get exposed.