Here are five of my favorite NFL player props for Week 3 currently available on the board. For all my Week 3 bets check out our Bet Tracker, where you can get all of my free NFL bets, as well as our (also free) Betting Life Newsletter.
If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access my weekly fantasy rankings and NFL player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.
Odds and projections are as of Thu. 9/19 at 8 pm ET.
Carson Steele Week 3 Player Prop: Under 1.5 Receptions
- Odds: +125 (DraftKings)
- My Projection: 1.1
Without RB Isiah Pacheco (leg, IR), the Chiefs currently have a backfield consisting of rookie Carson Steele, veteran Samaje Perine, and camp body Keaontay Ingram on the active roster with prodigal son Kareem Hunt on the practice squad.
I tentatively expect Steele to be the lead back, especially on early downs, but Perine had 50 receptions and 455 yards receiving on 56 targets last year and is an established presence on passing downs. Ingram probably won't factor in, but he had 89-671-6 receiving in college. And Hunt has 226-1,890-17 receiving on 285 targets across his seven-year NFL career.
The Chiefs will likely operate with a committee—and Steele is the least proven pass catcher of all the committee members.
Steele hasn't played much to this point, but he did serve as the No. 2 back behind Pacheco last week, and on his 18 snaps this year he has zero targets and a 16% route rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Compare that to Perine, who has just 13 snaps this year … but 13 routes and three targets.
When the Chiefs look to throw the ball, I doubt Steele will be on the field, and if he is then I'm skeptical the ball will actually go in his direction.
Tre Tucker Week 3 Player Prop: Under 1.5 Receptions
- Odds: +140 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 1.3
The Raiders are -5.5 home favorites, so I expect them to rely on the ground game with RBs Zamir White and Alexander Mattison, especially since the Panthers are so vulnerable against the run.
In Week 1, the Panthers yielded 172 yards and two TDs from scrimmage to the Saints RBs. Last week, they allowed 201 yards and one TD to Chargers RBs. Last year, they were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.024, per RBs Don't Matter) and defensive rush DVOA (5.7%, per FTN)--and now they're without DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR).
The Raiders will probably have a run-friendly game script, and their matchup is highly conducive to a run-focused approach.
Add on top of that the fact that HC Antonio Pierce said after last week's upset road victory over the Ravens that he wants the team to get back to running the ball, and it seems likely that the Raiders will attempt to advance the offense via the ground at every opportunity in Week 3.
As a consequence, the Raiders receivers probably won't have many chances to catch passes … and Tucker (5) trails WRs Davante Adams (18) and Jakobi Meyers (8), TE Brock Bowers (17), and even White (6) and Mattison (6) in targets.
As the No. 6 pass catcher on a team unlikely to throw the ball voluminously, Tucker is positioned for an underwhelming weekend.
Gus Edwards Week 3 Player Prop: Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
- My Projection: 37.5
I think this number is artificially low for two reasons.
First, Edwards has looked like a sluggish plodder through two games with just 2.9 yards per carry. And maybe he actually has precipitously worsened: He is after all 29 years old. But in his first six years as a professional he had a 4.9-yard rushing average, and last year he had a career-low 4.1. Even if we assume that he has slowed down, it's also reasonable to project him to rush for more than 2.9 yards per carry for the rest of the season.
Second, he has a tough matchup, as the Steelers rank No. 4 in defensive rush EPA (-0.294), but that ranking is likely inflated by the matchups they have had so far. In Week 1, they faced a Falcons offense coordinated by a first-time playcaller who massively telegraphed run plays based on formation. In Week 2, they faced an offense led by rookie QB Bo Nix. Last year, the Falcons were No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.190) with a mark nowhere near as severe as what the Steelers sport right now. Regression will visit the Steelers run defense eventually.
Edwards has 29 carries this year with a minimum of 11 in both games. I expect him to have similar usage this week, given that the Chargers will almost certainly want to stick with the ground game and the Steelers will probably be unlikely with their offense to force the Chargers to abandon the run.
As long as Edwards gets 10-plus carries, I like his chances of hitting the over.
Jordan Mason SGP: Anytime TD & Under 106.5 Scrimmage Yards
- Odds: +252 (FanDuel)
- My Projection: 0.8 TDs, -205.7 TD odds | 101.5 scrimmage yards
When I placed this bet, Mason's anytime TD odds were -185, and his odds to go under 106.5 scrimmage yards were -113.
If you plug those odds into our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculator, you'll see that the neutrally parlayed odds for these two legs is +190.4. Hence, the sportsbook is giving us almost an extra 62 cents of potential compensation for the risk that we're taking on with this inversely correlated parlay.
And let's be honest: This parlay is inversely correlated. If we take this parlay to the extreme, it becomes obvious that it would be almost impossible for Mason not to have a TD with 1,000 scrimmage yards in Week 3, and it would be utterly unlikely for him to have a TD with just one scrimmage yard.
Whether Mason finds the end zone depends in part on how many yards he accumulates, so it is appropriate for the sportsbook to sweeten the payout if this parlay hits.
But how inversely correlated are these two legs? Is the sportsbook overadjusting the odds?
Let's return to the extreme examples of 1,000 yards and one yard for Mason. Could he theoretically have 1,000 yards in this game and not score a TD. Yes, as long as he doesn't have a goal-line opportunity. Is it possible for Mason to get one yard and score a TD? Yes, especially if he gets a goal-line opportunity.
What matters most for whether Mason scores a TD is not the scrimmage yards he gets. It's the number of goal-line opportunities he has.
In his two games as the injury fill-in for RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, IR), Mason is No. 1 in total carries (48) and No. 3 in goal-line carries (3). With this usage, he has a TD in both games.
Given that the 49ers are 7-point favorites with an implied total of 25.25 points, I like Mason's chances of scoring a TD, and my projection points to the under on his scrimmage yardage.
When you put that all together, this inversely correlated single-player same-game parlay becomes mighty intriguing.
Josh Allen Week 3 Player Prop: Over 0.5 Interceptions
- Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
- My Projection: 0.73 INTs, -139.2 INT odds
One of my favorite props to bet last year was Allen to throw an INT, and I'm returning to it now.
Allen is yet to throw an INT this year, which I believe has resulted in advantageous odds for us now.
Last year, Allen threw 18 INTs in 19 games (including playoffs). The year before that, 17 INTs in 18 games. And the year before that, 15 in 19.
Throwing INTs is what Allen does. He's not a bad QB, but he's aggressive: He attacks downfield, and he's not afraid to throw into tight coverage. And that results in INTs.
Since OC Joe Brady assumed playcalling duties last year in Week 11, the Bills have focused more on running the ball, and Allen's INTs have dropped. In 11 games with Brady, Allen has just seven INTs with a pick in just six of them.
And Allen might not need to throw much this week as a -5 home favorite.
But at +100 odds he has an implied probability of 50% to throw an INT (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and based on everything we've seen from Allen throughout his career—even if we focus just on the top-tier player he has been over the past few seasons—I think it's reasonable to assume that in any given game Allen is likelier than not to have a pick.
